Forced sale of private assets, sure to lose them the next election.
Bring back the Reds Cossacks adverts from national...
https://nzhistory.govt.nz/media/video/dancing-cossacks
God bless Rob... dont you just miss him..
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Forced sale of private assets, sure to lose them the next election.
Bring back the Reds Cossacks adverts from national...
https://nzhistory.govt.nz/media/video/dancing-cossacks
God bless Rob... dont you just miss him..
Thanks stoploss didn't know he was still in cabinet, on a salary of $296,007:scared:
what happened to the barking chair leader of this stock?
"As a Presbyterian Minister with degrees in Theology and philosophy "
from an Atlee point of view hes perfect!!!
Think Salvation Army and soup kitchens and you can see where the policy is heading...
With global stagflation on the way and a deep recession coming is a perfect storm to nationalise the food chain.
A few reports out on how retail sales went in May. Except for fuel and travel a lot of negative numbers v May last year
WHS had a shocking half year with sales down $78m on pcp and Q3 (Feb/April) they were down another $20m v pcp
Not a good start to Q4 by looks of retail numbers. Retailwatch has Department Stores down 7%
So hard to see WHS growing sales in Q4 v pcp which means full years sales could be down well over $100m on last.
Full year profit - suppose it all depends on what happens to margins and expenses
My guess full year profit $80m /$85m
Whatever market seems pretty relaxed .... share price holding up
Holiday from social media and forum's can be a very good thing and you're right, I thought I might do some real work for a change before my old abacus locks up with rust LOL. Not worried about WHS and noted that Walmart (PE 26) was one of the only stocks on the Dow to go up on Friday. Consumer staples coming back into vogue ?
[QUOTE=Beagle;961633]Holiday from social media and forum's can be a very good thing .
I enjoyed your break..............lol.
Best song I watched on holiday...haters gunna hate, shake it off... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfWlot6h_JM
".though weather pretty ****ty eh"
gosh Winner your not wrong about the weather, gum boots will be flying off the shelves.
Who does the best GB's and is SKL the best stock in a storm?
Take your LPG heater into a Warehouse and swap it for a healthy electric heater .... free
Well done Warehouse
looks like whs is getting ready to break down soon from that bearish flag pattern
https://www.thewarehousegroup.co.nz/...r-homes-winter
Thanks, good on them.
JB HiFi sales up 4.8% v pcp in March quarter boded well for Noel Leeming Sales for Q3 (Feb/Apr)
But Noel Leeming sales were DOWN 2.5% v pcp in that quarter (Jeez I was excited when I said maybe +8%/10% eh)
Did a bit of digging and if the Electrical and Electronic Goods Retail Sales ex Stats NZ is a proxy for the market Noel Leeming are participating in then it's not looking that good for Noel Leeming - by my reckoning they have steadily lost market share over the last 4 quarters (from April 2021) - market share fallen from being consistently about 25% over the last few years to currently being just over 21%. That's a big drop in share over a short time.
More of a concern is that a few retail commentators are saying that demand for electronics / appliances over the next year will soften and could be down as much as 5% to 10%
Soft market and declining share not a good place to be in for Noel Leeming, especially when they have basically been the key groth engine for the group
Wonder if Nick monitors such trends ..... possibly not as he has got lost in the metaverse looking for $4 butter
But isnt it a case of making more by selling less for NL?
Similar to MHJ. Profits all that matter
Gosh, I haven't checked your figures but that does sound quite concerning. As you say, Noel Leeming has been the jewel in the crown for this group for many years now. In addition, I guess the much lower $Kiwi is also a factor here that could hurt margins going forward.
Almost every other weekend I see front cover page advertisements in the Herald by Harvey Norman offering several years (sometimes five years) storewide, interest free. Maybe that's how the Aussies are stealing market share ?
I don't read the printed version of the Herald - saves me paying for all these adds. However - 5 years interest free, this is in a high inflation environment a lot of money they have to add to their prices.
Maybe customers are better off to pay $1000 now to the Warehouse instead of $2000 over 5 years to the rabbit?
Surely - they must charge really healthy margins to survive this interest free offer ... or otherwise the Warehouse just needs to wait for them to return their market share back to them on a silver plate :) ;
Seriously - who would buy at Harvey Norman anyway? Never found there anything of interest ...
A quick check of their websites this evening, didn't bother with price comparisons, leave that to others, shows Noel Leeming doing 30 months interest free and Harvey Norman celebrating 25 years in New Zealand doing 60 months interest free plus the instant gratification of a gift card to the value of 10% of your purchase. https://www.harveynorman.co.nz/
I think in tougher times like we're in now that sort of promotion they're running is probably very appealing to consumers in terms of "instant gratification" so its probably no surprise that they are taking / "buying" market share. Probably just as well its only Noel Leeming affected a little bit by this as Warehouse stuff is so cheap its ridiculous !
I imagine both are gaining share from PB Tech - which used to offer great prices with decent service, but nowadays the service is appalling.
aye, but interesting enough, PB Tech is (or at least was) phenomenally profitable. something about how they imported their stock and the C grade el cheapo retail outlets they had, together with an early and strong ecommerce offering. understand it has been shopped around several times over many years but no one ever bought it, guess no one could get their head around it.
electrical goods and electronic sales a funny business - on average has relentless deflation (PCs, laptops, gadgets, TVs, all tend to get cheaper over time. exception is iphones which get more pricey) but works on increasing volumes year on year on the back of cheaper products (you can check out volumes, delfators and prices for this category on stats nz if you dont believe me, seems hard to fathom). rebates are key.
redsheds not just cheap clothing and dry good foods, but it hosts a reasonable sized electronics and appliance category of its own, plus sporting, homewares & furniture, etc. as far as I'm aware warehouse group has never in recent times provided any granularity into the category makeup of redshed sales. largest category by floorspace clothes, but hard to know at the $ or contribution level.
Q3 sales per average store for noel leeming were the most elevated relative to pre covid Q3 of all the brands.
* RED: $4.49m per average quarterly store vs Q3 FY19 of 4.15m. 2.6% CAGR
* Blue: 0.96m per ave store vs Q3 FY19 of $1.02m (-2% CAGR(
* NL: $3.66m per store vs Q3 FY19 of 2.82m, 9% CAGR. Starting to slow, it fell to 1% sales per ave store from Q3 FY21 (although total sales fell 2.5% on the pcp with a few store closures)
* T7: $1.62m vs $1.51m. 2.4% CAGR. Sales per average fell 6.1% from Q3 last year. So total sales for this division increased during the quarter as there are new stores, but average store revenue is falling sharply. A bit of a worry as these are new stores with long fixed tenures, and quite expensive (second most expensive store to operate of the 4 brands on a CODB per average store basis). A good winter snow could help with ski sales, but this business unit lost quite a bit of money for a long time and wasn't particularly profitable even when home fitness was going through the roof, so plausible could sink back into a loss making position with all these new expensive stores.
winner69, Q3 noel leeming sales fell yes, but they also shut a few stores over the period. Q3 FY21 they had average quarterly stores of 72.5, this year 70. I dunno the JBHIFI store numbers. I guess NL dont think the covid stay at home electronics sales boom is going to last forever.
Recent shopping experience earlier this month - we were looking for a coffee machine. Went to multiple stores to look at various options, brands, best price, etc but most of all to get advice. Visited 4 Noel Leeming stores in Christchurch including their flagship store in Moorhouse Ave where the salesperson just ignored us as we spent 10 -15 minutes looking at the coffee machines. The salesperson was pretty much standing within 2 metres of us but never even acknowledged we were there. Same experience in the Riccarton and Hornby stores, we did managed to get served in the Northwood store but the 2 salespeople who approached us both admitted they knew nothing at all about the product.
JB Hi-Fi Riccarton and Smiths City Colombo St - again no service. Salesperson at Northwood Harvey Norman was friendly and served us but was making it up as he went along, including telling us facts we knew were incorrect.
Best service in town when looking at coffee machines was Harvey Norman in Hornby and Moorhouse Ave - great service at both places and the staff knew their product and took their time to explain things in detail. End result we purchased a coffee machine from Harvey Norman Moorhouse. Harveys also had the best price in town by $50.
As WHS shareholders would have preferred to support our NZ business but it's a 2 way street - if you aren't going to provide great customer service we're simply not going to shop with you. Have brought the lack of service to Noel Leeming attention before but their reply was a standard copy and paste "we will talk to the store so that doesn't happen again"....based on our experience it's an ongoing issue.
I am the opposite, hate being pestered instore by sales people, just like being left to browse. If I was thinking of buying a coffee machine, I would look online see who is selling what then look at reviews, narrow it down, then look at a you tube video on the product, by which stage I would know more than any of the sales assistants anyway. Then I would go and buy it at cheapest price I could find
I hate shopping at PB Tech, but grit my teeth and bear it as they do have a better range of specialist equipment and computer gear than Noel Leeming, Harvey Norman etc. Service there is so bad and rude, and they are terrible to deal with for warranty claims of any description. They also seem to sail very close to the wind in terms of fair trading policies re: pricing (e.g. goods go up in price before a sale to be discounted back down). I also don't like that they charge a credit card surcharge.
Got excellent service in Noel Leeming not too long ago when buying a washing machine - the salesman couldn't have been more helpful or knowledgeable and also gave us a discount on top of the clearance price, and wasn't at all pushy when we asked him for a bit of time to look at it ourselves. However, the after sales delivery/install service was poor (cancelled on us twice, and then showed up hours late on the third try)
That being said, service in Noel Leeming seems to depend massively on what you look at, and can sometimes be overly pushy. I looked at a new Mac laptop recently (not much point TBH as there is no stock for ages) and the salesman was in my face within 10 seconds of me opening the laptop lid, basically screeching at me to buy now and what could he do to get me to buy today - which seemed odd as there was a) no stock and b) no way he could actually discount. Was unpleasant and considering that Apple products are the same price everywhere, I'd rather just buy from the Apple online store.
Other times, I've not been able to get any service whatsoever - although service standards in general seem to be declining.
As I sit outside at one of the many local cafes, sipping my Latte, I wonder why anybody would buy a coffee machine for home.
But if you must, buy a good one from the Warehouse empire please.
Attachment 13914
I've got a coffee machine at home (an emergency Airpoints Store spendup prior to the first lockdown, in fear of them deciding to wipe my balance and then inevitably declare doing so a triumph of customer service)
Now I've learned how to use it properly, I can honestly say the coffee I make is at least as good - if not better - than many cafes I would frequent; and that is before factoring in the price difference. There are some cafes I go to where I don't think all the time and equipment in the world would allow me to surpass ... but there are lots of "average" coffees being served, and more and more I find myself just making something at home and putting in a keep cup.
I'd average 2-3 coffees per day, and have been doing so since March 2020 and the machine hasn't skipped a beat yet.
Picking good beans and grinding them fresh makes all the difference.
All this chatter about service in Noel Leemings suggests it is not that good
Suppose whenever Nick says things like Our People - Across our stores, distribution centres and support centres, our team members have gone above and beyond to ensure we meet our customers’ needs and wants. we have to take it with a grain of salt - ie not really true (in H1 presentation)
Here’s a so good its bad service story about Noel leeming.
I have a pair of wireless headphones that have detachable tips (so you can fit a size of your choosing). I didn’t buy these headphones from Noel leeming, but thought i would head in to see if they sold replacement tips as I had lost one. Noel Leeming don’t sell replacement tips, but one of the staff went into the back room and got me a set and insisted there was no charge for them. I was bit dumbfounded at this level of generosity and left the store happy despite not spending a penny.
Now this experience leaves me with a very positive attitude about Noel Leeming and makes me more likely to shop there in future, but I’m guessing giving away inventory for free isn’t great for margins in the short term.
All sorts of stuff on the web if you look
SHAREHOLDERS SHOULD BE SHOCKED
https://nz.trustpilot.com/review/www.noelleeming.co.nz
Ouch that is shocking. I must admit I have never seen reviews so consistently bad.
well should see a BIG loss for them in the departments profit and loss ... going back to when? 2019.....
who said to buy WHS? wait i see the NL has made profit in the Annual reports....its ok then... FAKE customers!!!
To be honest - these reviews look so bad that they are not credible. It is not difficult to create fake reviews. Maybe one disgruntled customer or they didn't pay the Bitcoin ransom somebody asked them to pay ???
Not a big fan of Noel Leeming, but pages after pages of one star reviews are ridiculous and absolutely unbelievable. I had to deal in the past with really shocking companies (some borderline criminal), and their online reviews are typically patchy, but nothing like that.
That is True FM. most people only complain when something has gone bad. Not when they do what they are suppose to do
And in any event how may actual numbers of bad reviews to how many customers in a week??
I often wonder how many positive reviews are written by staff members.?
Sorry but i do not agree that these stories are not credible. I can relate to almost all of them.
I am a retired senior and a shareholder in WHS. It is not in my interests to contradict you but i have had similar multiple experiences over recent years and i do not deal with Noel Leeming if i can help it.
It is one of the remaining blots on WHS that this EXTREME poor customer service and attitude still persists in an otherwise seemingly revitalised WHS group
I bought a few things from Noel Leeming over the years,mostly in Christchurch and the service was fine, well informed staff and a competitive price.That is all I have to say.
Same here airedale.
Had to return an item due to it breaking down, replaced with no issues.
The majority of times I've been in, I know what I want so just go and get it and pay for it- no dramas etc, but at the same time don't write a review saying all good
Our Nick and Don Braid (Mainfreight fame) were the special people at an INFINZ do the other night about Building Resilience in Supply Chains and in Markets.
They at one time were discussing what the future of low-emitting freight transport would look like. Nick, always the dreamer, brought up the idea of drones and robotic delivery and mentioned that Walmart are looking at it and it's already at scale in China with deliveries up to 320 kilometres – they could replace diesel trucks and the audience laughed
With Nick you never know what direction he might take WHS
Important question: Did the Don laugh?
Investor presentation from today.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...892/374150.pdf
I didn’t watch it, but nothing new in the slides - using data ending Jan 31st, so a bit stale.
Interesting from BusinessDesk
If you want to know how seriously the government takes the desire for a more competitive supermarket sector, look no further than this photo of Ardern at a high-powered investors’ lunch in Sydney. To her right in the picture (centre) is none other than Patrick Noone, the Australian managing director for multi-national big-box shopping giant Costco. There would have been about 40 around the table, although a few of those were New Zealanders, but the most prized spot is inevitably beside the prime minister.
Hope Nick is on good terms with Jacinda ….some corporate welfare of sorts might be coming their way
As we know, the PM is out to lunch. I dont see anything major coming of it. Think how the star power she holds produced nothing tangible in the EU trade deal
BTW I wonder if the Beagle will come back sometime. Couta has been permanently banned and griping about it.
Not sure how a professional accountant found time to participate as it was.
Most are snowed under as round after round of compliance just keeps piling up from the IRD.
Asking a lot.
The beagle I thought was semi-retired, so must had some free time Waltzing.
Anyway, still can't see how WHS can/will compete as a "supermarket"
Not the first place I'd think of to go to, however if I was in there anyway, I might pick up the odd thing that i may have forgotten - but that is rare.
I'm also not rushing over the nearest WHS just to buy cheap butter or whatever might be on special this week, passing about 3 supermarkets on the way.
Costco, to me on the face of it, will be a bit like someone I know who has 2 or 3 fuel cards to save 10 cents max but pays a fee on all cards - but doesn't use enough petrol to justify - 1 card maybe, bit not more.
DISC: previous holder sold soon after last dividend
well with this sell off in the market and his holding a load of cash rather than shares he might still be planning on working...:scared:
Bad press for Noel Leeming
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129...ure-to-deliver
"Sort of like HLG when he was barking them up and selling them down"
NZX being a very small markets it probably best to sell and only comment after the event.
Wise move when the volumes are tiny.
Exciting times at Torpedo 7
wonder where they are making it with the supply chains all stuffed up.
last parts for a Trek needing a rear derailleur took 4 weeks from AUS..
that was in nov last year.
Ft.com interesting article on quantum computing
Two myths need to be laid to rest. First, it is true that quantum computers are in the early stages of development, but they are already creating value today. Already, quantum-inspired algorithms can be run on today’s classical computers to deliver significant improvements in business and financial processes. But those algorithms will be even more effective when run in combination with the quantum computers of the future.
Nick will be on the case …..and maybe he’ll have to hire waltz to guide him
QC right up there with time travel, well almost.
The big question is has WHS got there IT sorted in time for this massive world wide inflation wave that will surely devastate P&L results.
you wont be able to go and buy a QC chip set at NLeeming next year embedded in your Apple or Windows laptops or Phone.
Europe is where its at ...
https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2022/0...m-qoda-julich/
Early "quantum" computer wasn't quite a success Sinclair QL - Wikipedia
"But those algorithms will be even more effective when run in combination with the quantum computers of the future."
All this computing power and lots of data storage. The computers will know what we are about to do even before us
Yep.
and expect that to rise exponentially ..as computer power and data storage capacity rises (exponentially as well)..Soon they will have mass of data to set up a customer profile and email personalised flyers about products you are "interested" in. I've noticing that with Aliexpress.
Word of caution with this emerging "brave new world"... if curious think before you click..also I won't let Mrs Hoop buy women's personal things on my computer..:t_down:
you'll walk past a women clothing shop in centre place and it will flash an advert at you for the latest fashion with your dress size....:eek2:
Hoop is getting ready in advance with face recognition on his devices to bar all comers...:eek2:
JB Hi-Fi reported June quarter sales up 7.7% on same quarter last year. Full year sales up 0.3% on pcp
Should see Noel Leeming follow suit - if so Q4 sales might be $280m and make Full Year sales fractionally less than last year.
this might help the pattern
Walmart cuts profit guidance as inflation forces shoppers to spend more on necessities
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/25/walm...inflation.html
when one of the biggest retailers cuts guidance due to inflation you know its only a matter of time before every company does
WHS haven’t given any guidance só nothing to cut.
Unless things are a total disaster we won’t hear anything until late September
Good to have a contrarian view from you Bull ,as always. For my situ Im longer term investing in this sector,The Warehouse,so that's just noise to me.Im happy to ride this out and collect income on the way.But I have no or almost no other exposure in the retail side of things atpit.
late september?
winner(), will there be any inflation left?
oh only a few weeks away and europe economies will face a stark energy winter and china with no policy to speak of; could be next september before you see this cycle change mod.
good support now at the $3.30's
ascending triangle breaking on the upside
I'm guessing 3.80 in no time.to fill the gap between 3.70 and 4
TWG sales should be going well. We’ll know next month how profit went.
But I hope next month Nick gives us an update on his ecosystems and how the metaverse is coming along.
Can’t afford to be a laggard on the metaverse if you still want to be in the game in 2030
https://www.bcg.com/publications/202...se-on-business
Also hoping that Nick is getting his team involved in marketing to Generation Alpha
Lose them now and when the oldies start dying off he won’t have any customers
As a start he could charge an annual fee to customers for the privilege to shop at the Warehouse (like CostCo does). This will increase customer retention ...
Get a liquor licence, pump some cheap petrol at Warehouse parking lots and (obviously) keep (or even lower) the current pricing level for goods and everything will be honky-dory.
Yeah, and fill up the stores with even more cheap American and Chinese sugary snacks in huge boxes.
Be interested to see how their foray into cheap groceries is working. I notice the loss leaders got dialled back pretty quickly.
No more $5 weetbix, the $1 coffee is now $1.90. You can still get cheap milk and butter and flour is cheap …A bakers delight …but hope they are making some dough for the shareholders. I’m not sure the supermarkets will be loosing too much sleep about warehouse trying to compete
Wasting your hard earned dollars Pierre.
Pak n save weetbix $5.99 1.2kg or $4.29 750gm
Pak n save special blend coffee $1.75
prices sourced grocer.co.nz today
While you there you can buy all the other things you need to run a house like booze, meat and cheese that the warehouse doesn’t offer. So if you only want milk, butter or flour …the warehouse has you covered but everything else pretty much cheaper elsewhere
I predict the warehouse cheap butter price will end within next couple of months.
No agenda BP. Just questioning what the Whs grocery strategy might be and where it’s going. Where I do my weekly supermarket shop is also a warehouse so I’ve been diverting a few of my hard earned dollars into their tills but I’ve noticed that outside their loss leader offers there really no competitive advantage I can see on most products. I’m probably their worst type of customer…I only buy their loss leaders and still get everything else from the supermarket.
the warehouse app says the butter offer ends 4 October…hence my prediction it will be ending…but I could be wrong.
Disc. been a shareholder a long time ago but not a believer anymore
Currently 1.2kg Weet-bix $4.49 at Pak'nSave and imo grocery offerings similar prices to Pak'nSave with limited stock items.
New World - Countdown perhaps nicer shelving but far more expensive so personally don't shop there.
Thats right. Stickman is on tv every week giving me reasons to visit. Been radio silence from Big Nick since he was in the media telling us all how he was committed to saving nz breakfast. So far he’s put the weetbix up 20% and the coffee 80%.
If I was a shareholder I’d want to know what we’re doing.
Might have been a bit of an experiment to see how many incremental customers they could bring in to buy loss leading drygoods/butter/milk that would also buy a higher margin normal WHS product. IE, mgmt might guesstimate in their business case that the grocery initiatives might bring in an extra (say) 100 customers per store per day who spend (say) $20 on groceries at (nil/X% margin), but then (say) 10% of them go on to buy a normal WHS product for $x at x% margin, delivering the overall initiative greater GM dollars than without. All sounds good but you gotta test it, then play with the variables like pricing on groceries, to test the elasticities or bump them to earn the desired gross profit dollars. Food prices have risen anyway since they started the project (but not by the quantums you all are observing) so it could signal that the initiative wasn't delivering the expected incremental gross profit dollars. With hyper skinny EBIT margins and high overheads growing with inflation the WHS has bugger all room to accept margin erosion - operational leverage is great on the way up but is terrible on the way back down. If the project wasn't working, or was just increasing working capital and delivering de minimus increases in incremental gross profit, it would be a good thing for mgmt to increase margins on those grocery products even if it slows low/nil margin grocery sales.
Oddly enough, pairing back investment in "the market" likely to have a far greater impact on NBPT and ultimately dividends for FY22 and FY23, then tinkering with loss leading groceries in the hopes of driving incremental WHS sales. I reckon that could be done easily enough - a great but unknown portion of those massive markets losses are customer acquisition costs (ie google ads), which they could pull back on quickly, even if that means lower sales (but would translate into higher group profits). Depends on how gung ho the mgmt team is, how much they want to trumpet growing market sales, and how much slack they think they have with shareholders on losses. No spreadsheet or broker report is going to tell us the answer to that.
Good thoughts FM. The thing is everyone needs to eat something but not everyone needs to buy other widgets from Whs.
id happily spend some of my grocery dollars with Whs if they were something meaningful ie cheapest, multi buy discount but I’d struggle to find anything else in their stores that appealing.
Be interesting to see where it goes. We surely need more competition in groceries to keep everyone’s pricing sharp.
My observation of visiting stores since they starting selling groceries…is their loss leaders prices are too sharp and everything else is not
I was hoping that they could sell a lot of goods that don't need special storage for cheaper, and still make a reasonable GP%.
Then I suggested to them that they make shipping free if you bought over $30 of grocery items.
The marketing would be "buy your dry goods from us and we'll ship to your door, then buy your regular items at your supermarket. you make no more trips and still save money...."
However, I suspect you are correct FM that they are actually hoping for extra spending once people get into the store.
obviously not many people here follow AUS company reporting but i see the past ceo of noel leeming ( they report he is credited for the surge in sales at noel leeming ) has joined jbhi fi as nz ceo. loss for warehouse ?
Warehouse guy who left last year now CEO JB HiFi NZ
Noel Leeming have lost market share since he left (using that sector of Stats NZ Retail sales as a market proxy) .... and JB last few quarters sales growth has been better than NL..... and new guy jsut started
Hmmmm
Considering it takes normally around five years before the impact (good or bad) of a new CEO funnels through the organistation down to the bottom line ... I'd say that's just coincidental ...
Noel / Leeming / WHS probably gave him a top reference as well so that JB HiFi couldn't resist ...
Attachment 14078
I see these patterns as bullish. impulsive move, followed by retracement. It looks like it might be trying to break out of the retracement now.
discl. holding.