Good point .... SP does look a bit frothy at current, doesn't it?
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Ben Graham was a guru
Times like this remind of his sage wisdom
“In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”
Think it means don’t overthink it ...just keep on buying OCA
I’ve long thought that sum and oca were undervalued when compared to ryman. I wonder if the market finally agrees with me or if this is an aberration.
A reminder, I am forecasting eps of 10 cps for the 10 months to 31/3/21, (annualised eps of 12 cps) This is much higher than Forsyth Barr is forecasting at 8 cps.
The sector average PE is 18. 12 cps x 18 = $2.16 is where I see fair value.
We will see who is right when they report their FY21 results in late May 2021. I was very close with my estimate of FY20 earnings. I feel I know the company very well now.
This one posted on the 29th of September:
Roll forward 2 and half weeks and how things have changed. While both have made excellent gains in that time, OCA is neck and shoulders ahead:
SUM $10.30 (68% gain since 21/5)
OCA $1.45 (86% gain since 21/5)
I haven't looked at the others in the sector, but any concerns that OCA was being a bit short changed compared to SUM others look to have been addressed, and some. I like the company, believe in the story and have the portfolio heavily weighted in their favour, but just hope we're not getting too far ahead of ourselves. On the one hand I don't think it's a screaming buy anymore, but on the other, the analysts are starting to take notice and there's this "wall of money" from TD's looking for yield.
Blue sky out...hope it lasts the weekend ;)
Sold a half of my holding today. Hard to believe that market cap has doubled in last six months. Is it really worth one billion more. Anyway I thought MET was kind to me, OCA is amazing. Can you imagine where MET would be nowif we werent "forced" out.
What a bull run..