HNZ falling over is not such a significant risk to NZ, unlike the big five.
But I would rather it not go phut!
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Printable View
I don't think anybody is doubting Heartland ability to withstand a major dairy downturn. Dairy after all only 7% odd of total loans. No need to 'stress test' Heartland.
The so named other banks exposure to dairy is irrelevant to any discussion re Heartland.
What's important is the impact on Heartlands future earnings if more than expected of the $200m plus dairy loans under perform. Remember earnings are only $50m odd so it doesn't take too much extra bad debt to make a dent in that.
As Heartland themselves say 'expect higher levels of impairment in FY16. I wonder how much more?
What could be the impact on Heartland's future profits?
Maybe as high as $9m a year
This from the Cows in Calf thread (where good stuff is often posted). They refers to the RBNZ
Quote:
They're not worried about HNZ because its a small lender with a higher capital ratio already and they know HNZ are planning to raise more capital early next year.
By their own estimations 18% losses in the sector implies HNZ could get hit for about $37m (18% of $207m). Expect HNZ to spread that over a number of years to make it manageable, amortised over 4 years = $9m a year reduction in profits and seeing as they're forecasting $50m then its not going to upset the financial stability of the economy other than shareholders expecting profit growth, (Reserve bank doesn't care about them).
Dairy farm prices down 19% from a year ago
Could mean that the 62% LVR that Heartland touts is now about 78% (based on averages applying to Heartland)
https://www.reinz.co.nz/shadomx/apps...siteName=reinz
My view is the Heartland lending to the dairy sector would be at a higher risk end of the market compared to the big 5(when considering client financial health & reason for the loan) .So if the big 5 may have 5-10% dairy lending impaired I would expect 2-3(maybe higher) times this % impairment with the Heartland loan book.My understanding is the Heartland loan book is more likely for stock etc rather than over land.
HNZ share price on fire today - up to $1.32
Even the DRP shares if lastvApril soon to be in the money
Steady rise from here and $1.40 by the time of ASM and then who knows what might happen ....confirmation of $56m earnings and a good old Jeff ramp up might shoot up to $1.50 ---- yippee
There have been two recent brokers' reports on HNZ.Both were very impressed with HNZ's capital management proposals,the use of Tier2 capital to fund the possible share buy back, and the positive affects that will have on eps,roe and dividends.
No.
ROE increases.
Interest paid on bonds is debuctible.
No
Yes - ROE does increase
Yes - I know interest is tax deductible
But - NPAT reduces by amount of interest paid on bonds (after tax) ---> means value of dividends paid out is reduced by same amount.
You might see a higher dividend per share but with the lower number of shares your $ dividend is less (assuming everything else remains constant)
Percy, no need to ring Simon - would only waste his time as he'd agree with me as he a gun accountant.
You are right and I have never disagreed - proposed capital management initiatives will increase EPS, will increase ROE and will increase dividend per share. Other metrics will look better as well. No argument.
But NPAT will be reduced by the amount of interest on the bonds (after tax) and in theory the total value of dividends will reduce (assuming all other things remain constant)
But all other things don't remain constant which means we will never really know what impact the initiative will have anyway. Just like we will never really never know whether the Seniors acquisition was EPS accretive or not.
The tiger said lets call the whole thing off (think that meant cool it) - so seeing i might get the last word in I will
Back to reality
A close at 132 today - good sign that this was the high for the day which bodes well for tomorrow
Getting closer to the AGM - hopefully guidance will be tightened up and even increased slightly. Something like $54m to $57m sounds a lot better than the current guidance.
Likely? Why not? The economy is bubbling along nicely with business and consumer spend pretty strong. That should be helping the Heartland loan book grow.
No need to worry about problems in rural yet - if it all does turn to custard the impact won't be felt until FY17 anyway. By then the share price probably in excess of 170 so still plenty of upside.
Heartland says "Key drivers of growth for Heartland are GDP and employment"
A couple of recent Cameron Bagrie updates via twitte
@ANZ_cambagrie: ANZ job ads for NZ up 1.2% in October. Follows 2.3% lift in sept. Another sign economy picking up from sluggishness in first half of year
@ANZ_cambagrie: Our truckometer up for Oct: good sign for GDP. Heavy traffic up 0.9% follows last months 1.8. Light traffic down small but boomed last month
So all looking good on the GDP front for Fy16 Heartland growth
And don't forget that 83% of F16 interest margin growth is expected to come from business and consumers. (Low expectations from rural)
I'd say $51m to $55m F16 guidance will be tightened up and at the ASm it will become $54m to $57m
No wonder the share price is rising nicely
This is how I also see it. Reserve bank are forecasting a potential 18% average sector credit losses in a protracted downturn for dairy, (dairy stay's under $5 kilo for four years). This would translate to the potential for approx. $37m in losses at face value for HNZ ($207m x 18%) if things go really bad for the sector, (nobody can be sure whether they will or won't), based on average loan to valuation ratio's for the sector but seeing as it would appear HNZ's loans are at the higher end of the LVR spectrum in a worse case dairy situation losses for HNZ could be higher, exacerbated by sharp potential continuing declines in dairy farm values. That said spread the loss recognition over a number of years and its certainly manageable but nonetheless I think cautious people might like to consider this apparent headwind in their thinking. Optimists will be hoping for a recovery in dairy prices next year, as I am because its good for the economy as a whole as well as our hard working dairy farmers. Nonetheless I think its useful to have an peek into the abyss and an estimation of how bad the sector losses could be in a worst case scenario and the Reserve Bank obviously also thinks so too.
Roger says " I think its useful to have an peek into the abyss ......."
I agree. Investors need to look and consider both the good and the bad and even the ugly - and weigh up for themselves what each means
(Hope one of those >$10m dairy loans don't fall into the abyss)
$1.60 by Christmas was the word on the street when it was 2 months until Christmas, and the shareprice was approx $1.25.
35c appreciation in 60 days, close to half a cent per day.
Now it's hovering around $1.30 with close to only 30 days until Christmas, that's a 30c appreciation in 30 days, almost one cent per day!
Ie the rate of appreciation of the HNZ shareprice has doubled in this time, from 0.5c to 1c per day.
What a great opportunity!
For what it's worth, I've been trying to purchase this stock for around 8 days now by placing orders each night a few cents below the current asking price. 8 days in and i'm still waiting.
Very strong demand, think i'm going to have to bite the bullet.
Fisherking - Assuming you want to own the stock as an investment then simply pay the market price if you are looking to speculate try the ASX mining sector and throw a dart!
Sometimes you have to pay a premium for a premium stock...
I'm certainly not expecting to it go down, aussie banking sector has recovered strongly this week, CBA almost over $80 mark again with ANZ etc doing well... keep trying to 'pick it' doesn't usually work. I brought in August at $1.12, and although at the time it went all the way down into the mid $1.0x's, and a friend brought in at $1.09 a couple of days after me, I am still over the moon with my $1.12 buy which included a 'bonus' 4.5c dividend reinvested at $1.11... Its looking pretty good now and the only thing I would have done different was buy more!
Sometime maybe, but if you're patient you can most times buy premium at discount prices. That time might be over for HNZ in the meantime after recent price weakness and increasing price strength. The question is really whether you're prepared to time your buys (and sells) or whether you just want to be in right now regardless of the SP.
I see two problems hanging around waiting for the price to come to you:
1/ It may never happen.
2/ If it does happen you may end up with a partially filled order on which you have to pay the minimum brokerage - so what you going to do then?
Personally I buy if I believe there is sufficient depth on the sell side, at or below the price I am willing to pay, that I can get at least $10,000 straight away when the order goes in.
And even that does not always work. I have had the market move sufficiently that I have ended up on the buy side with some bot feeding me shares in $80 lots and then your inbox ends up stuffed with buy-notice emails.
So whatever your reasoning if the current price is right go buy them.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Disc: This my opinion for any share not specifically HNZ
So at 30-Jun-15 HNZ had $2,862M07 of receivables and they said that 7.6% of that was dairy related.
Now 7.6% could be as much as 7.6499999999999999999999999999% really
so that could be as much as
$218M95
of dairy loans [or $217.52 if you want to use the 7.6% as is].
Now the reserve bank estimates in their most severe scenario from the recent Financial Stability Report that losses associated with those loans would be 14% of the value of said loans which is:
$30M65
Some on this channel have mentioned an 18% loss or an opinion that it will be worse for HNZ, so with that much more severe 18% we would have:
$39M41.
So just for fun let us assume that HNZ in FY15 impaired that $39M41 of dairy in addition to the $775K of dairy that they actually did.
[Note: total across the board impairment expense was $12M11 for FY15].
Profit would not have been flash at:
$8M75.
Assuming that all loans were through the bank bit then Tier 1 capital would have dropped to
$301M
and the capital adequacy ratio to
11.5% (still 1% above the 10.5% buffer limit).
But in reality, impairment is based on the reality of what is actually happening on the ground and there is more to HNZ than just dairy.
The future looks interesting :scared:: full of swings and roundabouts, snakes and ladders, abysses and whatever the opposite of abysses are :mellow:.
And on a related note: The 61% LVR ratio, does anybody actually know how much the value part has changed since June?
E&OE - I have been known to get things wrong.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
PS If you need some bedtime reading, look out for banks first quarter disclosure statement, coming soon.
The immediate reaction would ouch and shar price might fall to say $1
But then relsaliation would hit home and the experts would say at least Heartland have bitten the bullet and wiped he slate clean.
That's great. Market is forward looking and with the dairy loans being non-recurring forecasted profits going forward will be $60m ....and the share price will rocket to $1.50 plus. That's how things work when the bad is non-recurring and forgotten.
(Ps for PT: after the horrendous write off equity rucked eh ,,,,so ongoing ROE will sour wot it. Another objective met)6
Maybe having cornerstone shareholders like Heartland and Trade Me will prove to be a great combination for Harmoney. This sure is an impressive start http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11549647
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/banking/ne...ectid=11549521
Hopes rise for dairy recovery next year. Not sure what they're basing that hope on but I thought shareholders might enjoy the read.
Full moon this week (in bth hemispheres) --- Heartland share price $1.35 plus, maybe $1.40
Sharechat (owns Sharetrader) just emailed me touting Heartlands on line call a/c at 3.6%
Good focused marketing
Yep, had the same e.mail about 10 times now...IIRC I think it started off with 3.6% and no tricks or no traps, something like that, now no strings attached...maybe one or two of the main trading banks with their serious saver type products might have had a little word in HNZ's ear about the use of the word tricks ? Whatever the case may be, yes its a great call account rate.
Heartland says "Key drivers of growth for Heartland are GDP and employment
More good news today on that front
@ANZ_cambagrie: NZ migration booming. 6,200 in the month of October, 62k in the yr. That's a lot of demand for houses. Visitor arrivals up 9% on last year
Wow - HNZ shareprice heading to 140 in next day or 2
And more good news mate.
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/b...n-omf-sayshtml
Hopefully this is the start of a renewed upward trend and the worst for the industry is already behind them.
"HARMONEY CLAIMS GLOBAL SUCCESS IN LOANS BUSINESS" Thanks iceman
HNZ is the only green stock on my portfolio today so far.
Abyss ("the regions of hell conceived as bottomless pit")a bit exaggerated methinks unless you meant like an Airbus (newer better ,faster, competitive) Roger.;)
UDC reports bumper profit - up 11%
Apparently H2 was very good - same period as Heartland H1
Business lending on a roll
Heartland earnings upgrade at AGM on cards
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...-bumper-profit
Mind you UDC boss Percival was on radio and commented that lending was slowing in some sectors but they were gaining share
Maybe things not that rosy for Heartland after all?
HNZ top of the leaders board on the NZX - up 3 centsc- yippee
Read an interesting article in a Journal of Portfolio Management about share buybacks.
Was saying that while EPS increases in many cases the P/E ratio falls to some extent.
Means the EPS increase may not fully translate into a higher share price, especially when the buyback is debt funded - higher leverage means higher risk when generally leads to lower P/Es
Be interesting to see what eventuates next year if the capital return goes ahead.
See why the AGM was delayed. A few loose ends to tie up and somebody had to write the 28 page document.
Hope you genuine shareholders have read every word of it.
Looks like the Board of the Continuing Company is only going to have 1 female (Nicola)
At least the pictures of the staff had a few females in them.
Diversity obviously still not taken seriously at Heartland. Shame
At least the $11.8m in first quarter is higher than last years $11.0m ....but it was really $12.8m (that 28 page book was expensive)
So 16% up - at this rate the $55m is minimum expectation for FY15. The $52m is bull**** but Jeff has to play his games and tease the market
Plenty of stuff in bottom drawer for a rainy day eh Percy
Might even be $60m ..... Things are on a roll
Yes another very solid quarter.
W69 ;UDC result was a prelude .Usually follows when UDC does well, so do HNZ.Seems a growing market for both.And yes UDC is a very well run business too.
And plenty of gas in the tank.
I think the agm presentations will include profit projections,and the usually comprehensive commentary of where HNZ sees their future .
We remain "well positioned."
At the mid point of their forecast range $53m on 473.6m shares on issue FY16 EPS is 11.19 cps. Leaving aside loan defaults which has been thoroughly discussed, apply whatever PE you feel is right but I note that historically its tended to trade in a range of 11-12 and this is broadly consistent with the current trading range of Aussie banks which suggests fair value is $1.23 - $1.34.
i see they've reaffirmed guidance yet again , I wonder how many quarters in a row now they've done that and either met or exceeded or exceeded their target . Steady as she goes.
Heartland says "Key drivers of growth for Heartland are GDP and employment
More good news today on that front
@ANZ_cambagrie: ANZ business outlook survey for NZ shows further improvement. Firms flag better activity, employmt and investmt. +ve signs for growth
FY16 earnings heading $60m - guidance of $51m to $55m rubbish
1Q statements lack a lot of the detail of full year and only cover the bank, which is not yet all of HNZ.
But they have a net impairment expense of
$3,306K (with rural being $399K)
as opposed to this time last year when it was
$1,838K (with rural being $10K)
Interestingly 90+ day overdue loans on rural as gone from $17,904K to $11,704 in the last three months, possibly as a result of some/many them being reclassified given that Heartland are supporting dairy in these difficult times.
Whilst I think winner69 and his $60M is just winner69 being winner69 I am going to suggest that the $55M end of guidance is looking very achievable at the moment.
And so hot from the Paper Tiger Institute of Obscure Numbers:
Current value: $1.373
30-Jun-16 value: $1.428
30-Nov-16 value: $1.465
Assuming nothing special whatsoever happens. (i.e. No Tier2, no buybacks, no MTF, No smoking...)
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Not asking you to be silenced mate. I am sure they will simply "manage" their way towards the mid point of their FY16 guidance range by changing some of the underlying assumptions that are supportive of what amounts to nothing more than guesses, (opps sorry, professional estimations) of loan provisioning at year end so I am happy to agree to disagree with you and will stick with my fair value assessment and note that the current price is within my fair value range.
I called it as fairly valued on 1 February 2015 at $1.30...not much has changed, EPS up a little and sector PE down a little bit reflecting underlying risks in a slowing economy and commodity environment.
Those thinking that auditors give a really thorough and impartial scrutiny of the company in terms of the adequacy or otherwise of loan provisioning. Oh dear, that's a pretty sad indictment on professional standards isn't it :eek2:
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/b...fma-reviewhtml
LOL PT auditing standards and valuations are of course two entirely different things. In my view the fundamental problem with auditing is the inherent compromises.
Auditing firms are being paid by the company to audit their financial statements. Its a competitive process so fee pressure is very real and insurance costs extremely high after Enron and any other number of failures you care to recall.
Auditors can be removed by the company so there's pressure on the job to do it at the right price and pressure for the right result. Attracting the right staff with the right experience at a competitive price is also a challenge.
Too often junior and intermediate level staff simply accept what they're told by high priced bankers as being fair and reasonable. You're far better off looking at the macro economic picture and asking if the level of provisioning is really adequate given the severity of sector headwinds. Sooner or later bad debts come out in the wash.
I've spent year's auditing, (no longer) and my gut instinct tells me HNZ's provisioning in the area of dairy loans could only be described as reasonable if there's a really steep recovery in Fonterra's pay-out next season. Whether that happens remains to be seen but all the risk in this area seems to be towards significant increases in future loan provisioning which will of course impact future profit results.
As all of us who follow the banking sector know, the most useful comparisons and updates of the sector is provided by KPMG with their reviews.
They are most probably the most respected banking "analysts".
They also happen to be HNZ's auditors.
Decide for yourself.
I have found in any field you do get better advice from a specialist,whether it is your car,your body,and I would expect audit is the same.
I wish I could have faith in auditors and trustees after the GFC but what we leaned as the GFC unfolded was that most provisioning was grossly inadequate when the "custard" hit the fan and the situation many highly leveraged dairy farms are currently in is analogous to a GFC type situation. I find it very interesting that almost every other bank is dramatically ramping up their dairy loan provisioning other than HNZ...hmmm.
Ditto, no faith in auditors....fudge to make things look good or look at places that makes them feel good.
In this instance , the Company seems to know best and so far have been spot on . Bankers know Banking ...............accountants ..well , they can be creative!
HNZ certainly more accurate than the Guru of Doom and gloom.:D
So most of the other banks that are being conservative and really ramping up dairy sector loan provisioning have it wrong and HNZ are right...yeah that makes perfect sense. Time for a Tui :)
Yeah they probably would mate. After all what does excessive LVR average loan ratio's really mean and if the guy in the fancy suit paid a seven figure salary says dairy is recovering next year who is he to argue especially seeing as said suit is paying the wages ! We're supporting our clients through this...its such a wonderfully politically correct approach to take isn't it.
BNZ reported this a month or so ago
The bank's charge to provide for bad and doubtful debts surged $42 million, or 91.3%, to $88 million. The rise was attributed to an increase in collective provision charges, mainly due to the outlook for the dairy industry.
http://www.interest.co.nz/business/7...-rise-expenses
Yeah that's part of what I was referring too, thanks for posting mate. Here's another article that quite explicitly expresses the forward view that loan provisioning is in for a huge increase if dairy stays low
http://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news...xtended-period
Those obsessed with life in the rear view mirror and who accept recent loan provisioning at face value can't see a problem whereas those who spend time trying to look around the corner ahead see trouble coming...two different perspectives. No telling people looking backwards they need to change their point of view I suppose... Must be that auditor training, like a beagle at the airport sniffing out problems ahead, (with apologies to Snoopy) :)
I think Heartland have had a good look at the loans and made the right provisioning .
Dairy on the up , all good ....
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11553380
http://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news...-enough-enable
Maybe not enough to enable Fonterra to meet its $4.60 forecast and that's still well adrift of the mid five dollar range experts seem to agree is what's necessary for farmers to break even.
How many more years can banks keep supporting loss making dairy farmers by lending them more and more money to stay afloat ? (Good question to ask your directors at the forthcoming annual meeting).
That guy flip flops a lot , just remember they invented economists to make weather forecasters look good.
http://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news...5-less-urgency
Ah so - I get it knowQuote:
Paper Tiger the other day
Interestingly 90+ day overdue loans on rural as gone from $17,904K to $11,704 in the last three months, possibly as a result of some/many them being reclassified given that Heartland are supporting dairy in these difficult times.
You take an overdue/problem loan and repackage it up as something new under the guise of support - it becomes a 'new loan' so no longer overdue (even though the borrower still owes heaps)
Tricky
To be fair that was some time back after four successive GDT gains and many were starting to feel more optimistic. Reality has bitten since and we are still far short of what's required for farmers to break even.
I'm sure you know finance companies and banks have been using this creative accounting method since Adam was a boy and its most especially useful during harsh times like the recent GFC. Good of you to point out to others though and as you know this earns them nice fat refinancing and admin fees too so makes the books look better in more ways than one...until such time as they can't repay their loan that is. Harmoney clip the ticket for (IIRC), a hefty 6% fee on their refinancing, perhaps something of a conflict of interest with investors looking for easier loan admin and loans running their full term ?
Ben Russell C.E.O of Rabobank to join HEARTLAND according to Interest .co.nz.Head of Rural Banking
Good spotting beetlls
Rabobank NZ CEO departs for Heartland Bank
Heartland seem to be able to attract top talent.
Not just talented investors.!!!!.lol.
Hmmm, a good thing ? Extract from the link I provided at post #6783 regarding RabobankPretty interesting style of leadership that ended up with that sort of concentrated sector risk, I would have thought. Did he jump or was he pushed ? Rabobank mentioning his departure in a one liner within a regular disclosure statement suggests quite strongly to me whether he was pushed or otherwise his departure wasn't on amicable terms.Quote:
latest General Disclosure Statement.
"Since 30 June 2015 dairy commodity prices have fallen sharply from already low levels. Farm gate milk prices are now at their lowest levels since 2002. Loans to dairy farmers make up more than 50% of the Bank's overall ($9.314 billion) loan portfolio. Very low prices for an extended period would increase dairy farm loan defaults and the potential for higher loan loss provisions in the Bank's dairy portfolio," Rabobank says.
The net result from so much sector risk concentration... so far... http://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news...e-income-falls
I hope for investors sake he's kept on a tighter leash that when he was at Rabobank.
Stranger than fiction :huh:
Rabobank is essentially a bank specialising in rural lending. The fact he was with the bank since 1989 suggests he was pretty much with them from about the time they moved into NZ.
That would suggest to me that about 4.6 billion of rural lending,(total at the present time) plus loans paid off,bridging finance etc. has been done whilst he was either at the helm or in a reasonably high position, to have the experience to grow the portfolio at Heartland.
Every lending institution that lends to dairy is going to have some form of writedown to varying degrees because of the downturn,and more so a specialist lender, I think HNZ have seen the potential for growth in this sector and are looking ahead,and taking the experience he brings.
Growing the rural lending book is a massive opportunity,and he has the experience.
I have every confidence in HNZ's management,and the decisions they make.
As such a forward looking chap I thought you would have noticed that your link is two years old.
Must be the ex-auditor in you.
And if you can ever find some verification for your "...most of the other banks that are being conservative and really ramping up dairy sector loan provisioning..." post be sure to let us know
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Lol ,love it and all true.Many hundreds of one eyed repetitively ,negatively slanted posts for all to see ,from a non holder.Why,what good does it do for this forum?
To bring a balance perspective on stock. People looking to invest can make informed decision.
This is what I dislike about finance companies and am keen to warn others about and have. Much like back in the days of the GFC HNZ are lending willy-nilly to consumers, often with poor or no security and its all in the name of profit growth so the bankers can collect their juicy bonus. Trouble is when the real pressure comes on, like it is with Dairy at the moment they then make big sector write-off's and then try and claim its an extraordinary item and not part of their normal operating profit. Now who was ultimately responsible for this $83 million write-off, the poor manager who had a breakdown or your esteemed leader currently running HNZ ?
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=10624635 Does a tiger change its stripes ? Another old link just for your benefit PT. Does history repeat ?
Speaking of Tiger's, I was tired yesterday PT and didn't notice it was an old link. W69 already kindly provided you with a link regarding the BNZ's provisioning which is the only bank currently compling with the new accounting standard regarding this matter but there have been other announcements and there will be plenty coming...surely I don't have to spoon feed a tiger ?
You guys trust the team if you like but the track record is there for all too see.
Hope the rural lending manager that left / was dismissed / was shunted sideways, didn't suffer the same fate as that poor bloke in the link :eek2: Dairy farmers with huge debt have described the current environment as "like going through a meat grinder"...I suppose its not a dissimilar experience being a rural lending manager at present.
Joshuatree -If you find my posts get under your skin there's always the ignore button. Nobody's got a gun to your head making you read them. That said, with the posting of this link (which a friend of mine kindly sent me last evening), which graphically illustrates what happens when a problem sector of debt has to be "marked to market" I feel my job is done.
I'm sorry but just does not wash with me. You may have lost a lot of dough with dodgy finance companies back during the GFC ; a lot of people did it was a travesty. But to call HNZ bank the same is disingenuous./false. Ive been in HNZ since re 70c and have done very well and rate management very highly as they have carved a niche out amongst the big guys, remarkable in fact.This continual negative opinionated ranting . One has to ask why?Is it Ego; I'm always right and everyone else is wrong?. Is it to save people money ?No, look at the AIR example where folks are still being encouraged in like two previous high points where it was suggested to "back up the truck" and they are still down; have lost money.Are you a qualified financial adviser? If so please disclose this; if not why act like one?. Its all the continual subjective , biased posts at any op to discredit HNZ which is harmful to these threads; lets have more objective posting, far better for all.Other wise it just comes across as a poor attempt at match fixing and not a good healthy debate re the pros and cons of a stock. Enough is enough.
Much of the current unsecured and deferred payment consumer lending that HNZ are doing, as previously posted reminds me very much of the poor practices many of the finance companies engaged in during the GFC and we all know how that turned out for most of them. Does a leopard change its spot's and who was running Marac when they had to take their huge write-off ?...just as well they merged to become part of HNZ otherwise that could have been another finance company down the drain. Sometimes to see the big picture you have to look further back in the past, back before you got in at 70 cents. Best to discuss AIR on the appropriate thread. Happy to leave it at that.
JT wants more "objective posting" and a "good healthy debate re the pros and cons of a stock"
I currently have some HNZ. I like to keep tabs on what the company is doing and how its run.
Recent changes in Senior Management are interesting.
On one hand punters say Heartland have taken on board 'talented' people from Kiwibank and Rabobank as Chief Risk Officer and in Rural Lending. Good moves in that context.
On the other hand the recruit from Kiwibank must have had some accountability re this
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/7344...ering-failings
The guy from Rabobank seems to have taken a step back in his career for "various personal and professional reasons".
Just a couple of observations, which i find interesting. In an objective way they go into the bank of information as part of a solid fundamental analysis of Heartland and actioned accordingly.
well, I am still picking them up /. Overweight and I believe they have delivered what they have promised. A difficult market to buy on as seems high.
No harm buying now horus1. This years earnings will be $55m (even if it is really closer to $60m) and the divie will be pretty good. The share price might even be near $1.60 mid next year in the excitement when punters extrapolate out to F17
If the proverbial is going to hit the fan it won't be obvious until late next year - so keep an eye in the chart and when it starts to look a bad sad hits the time to cash up.
Now - could be back the truck up time - wont be as cheap for while
So we could sort of say that Sharetrader guidance is $55m (your very achievable number) to $60m (extrapolation of Q1 plus a fraction more). We are after all the only ones who have come up with a number different from the mid point $53m
Easy to remember is $55m to $60m as well.
We will have to wait until after H1 comes out before Heartland raises their guidance -- next week at the ASM it will be the usual confirmation of current guidance
How come you been 'unbanned' so quickly when apparently Roger won't be back until next year, if he decides to bother come back at all,