Bought more today at 2.03
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Bought more today at 2.03
Where would you expect to find that?Quote:
Still, no-one has a 30 day compare on the T20 holders?
Any current shareholder has the right to request a Top 20 shareholders report from the company. They can also ask for a back dated report if needed and compare it to todays report. Some shareholders regularly request the Top 20 reports to monitor changes in the major holders positions. No one likes it when a T20 is unloading their shares, especially foundation shareholders, though conversely it is encouraging when an existing major is accumulating or a new respected big name is taking a position in the T20.
The last 32 days (11-Apr-16 => 25-May-16 inc) as seen 85,497,887 shares* change hands, representing about 7.6% of all of those currently issued.
This is an average of 2,671,809 shares a day and compares to
426,857,585 shares^ [38%] from 20-May-2015 inc) or 1,667,412 shares a day over the last 256 days.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
* I bet at least some of those are really the same share traded multiple times
^ ditto
A suggestion, not advice ... buy a few shares in everything important on your watchlist, just to get on the share register. For $30 broker fee each plus the few shares, it's worth it to monitor the T20 to complement your FA by knowing who is really moving and shaking every company you own, or those you think you might want to own.
;)
BAA
Top 20 shareholder reports are of limited value when so many of the beneficial owners hold their shares in nominee companies. It's the "substantial shareholder" notifications where movements in interests of 5%+ must be notified that are of most interest. Or so I have found.
That's true, though initially it's not about 'names' per se, more so where the SP movements are coming from, like who is driving the SP. Those are the ones that are doing the buying and the selling. I agree though that the SSH's are what complements this, by putting names to the bigger players.
Anyone know if Zero Commission's $2.70 a share offer is still open?
https://nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/281323
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
I think a nzx please explain will follow soon..
im not holding for the moment but considering that psychological barrier at 2 for a DCB.. an in and out trade perhaps over a week (maybe others should consider as a way to cushion losses)... what's the sentiment fellas?
can this be a stock manipulation or just big dogs selling their positions?
It could be churn from retail investors selling down as AIR broke down through TA supports - then other investors who tried to catch the bargain hit their stop losses - rinse and repeat and catchy falley knife. We can all look at the same charts.
The Big boys also look at the same charts - why would they buy when the retail folk are chasing the price down like this? Smart money wanting to buy air will be waiting as the price is improving daily.
Buy and hold people can ignore the noise and enjoy the yield :)
How effective is AIR hedging policy and results?.. anyone monitoring oil prices and volumes.. results might surprise.
From NBR...for those that do not have access...
Air New Zealand shares sink to a near 19-month low as headwinds increase
Air New Zealand’s [NZX: AIR] shares have sunk to their lowest level in nearly 19 months, plunging more than 33% since early April as the airline’s tailwinds have reversed into headwinds.
The shares fell 4c to $2.02 yesterday, their lowest level since early November 2014, and they have sunk from $3.04 on April 8.
Among the reasons for the share price fall are Air New Zealand’s contracting margins and falling yields as costs, largely from recovering oil prices, rise.
As well, the airline is facing increasing competition.
Salt Funds Management’s joint managing director Matthew Goodson says another factor fuelling the share price decline has been “shorter-term focused offshore investors who aggressively bought the stock earlier and now appear to all be heading for the exits at the same time.”
Air New Zealand’s shares rose more than 260% between January 2012 and January this year.
“The fundamental triggers for those falls have been a lift in oil prices off the bottom, albeit partly offset by lower refining margins, and, more particularly, an increase in competition for Air New Zealand on a number of its routes,” Mr Goodson says.
“Clearly, a lower jet fuel environment has stimulated new entries,” he says.
While some have commented Air New Zealand’s expectations that much of its future growth will come from the lower margin leisure market, Mr Goodson doesn’t think that matters much.
“The key for Air New Zealand is that it has an extremely powerful domestic position that it can feed into its international routes,” he says.
“What you find with many of Air New Zealand’s international routes is that they’re long and skinny, so in many cases there’s room for one-and-a-half airlines,” he says.
Discounting to fill seats
If there’s only one airline, it can make extremely good money, but when there are two airlines, both need to discount to the degree needed to fill the available seats.
“They’re businesses with enormous operating leverage and it’s that operating leverage that matters far more than any distinction between business and leisure travel,” Mr Goodson says.
“Airline earnings, and therefore valuations, can move around sharply because typically there’s a lot of financial leverage via bank debt or leases to own the planes and also a lot of operating leverage,” he says.
“The combination means quite small changes can lead to quite sharp earnings changes.
“That said, looking at Air New Zealand’s at an earnings level that tries to arbitrate through that, it does look cheap, relative to its international peers and I would have to say many of its market positions are better quality as well.”
Nevertheless, analysts have been downgrading their earnings forecasts from 55c per share for the year ending next month to 48c in 2017 and 37.5c in 2018.
“From the recent investor day, (the company) did reiterate that earnings will be lower next year. However, the market was largely already there and obviously everyone can see the new entries on some of their routes,” Mr Goodson says.
“Really, the question for the market is, is there further downside risk to those forecasts and is there further downside risk in the year after,” he says.
“But already consensus forecasts have earnings falling both in the June 2017 year and the June 2018 year, although looking out that far for an airline really is in the realm of crystal ball gazing.”
Interesting ...
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11645237
"NZX toughens enquiry process for sudden share price movements"
New Zealand's stock exchange operator, NZX, is to start making confidential enquiries of listed companies that experience large, unexplained share price movements, to determine whether they may be holding undisclosed "material" information even while remaining in compliance with the market's Listing Rules that require disclosure of material information at certain trigger points.
Thanks sb9 ,appreciate it. At the mercy of stampeding offshore investors jamming the funnel to the tank.
Salt Funds Management’s joint managing director Matthew Goodson says another factor fuelling the share price decline has been “shorter-term focused offshore investors who aggressively bought the stock earlier and now appear to all be heading for the exits at the same time.”
[QUOTE=sb9;622084]From NBR...for those that do not have access...
Air New Zealand shares sink to a near 19-month low as headwinds increase
If the FMA and NZX want investors to take them seriously they need a prosecution against insider trading in a high profile case. A braking dog is useless unless it bites hard from time to time.
I believe we have solid grounds for such a case here but AIR's legal team would likely smother the FMA's tiny legal prosecution budget so the FMA would be reluctant to take them on.
(Disc still holding, DYOR, not to be considered professional advice or a recommendation and contains speculative opinion based on previous experience dealing with the Securities commission, FMA and NZX compliance).
Sage advice from the mighty Rod Drury (his response to the Herald story linked earlier)
Share price is set by most desperate seller or buyer on any given day. Almost no correlation to business performance
Seems appropriate on this thread eh
It feels like your disclaimer is getting longer by the day!
Does the FMA have any remedies before trying to raise a prosecution, for example, approaching the company to say that their security trading policy isn't robust enough? I feel like if there is a problem here then that would be more appropriate right now, especially since a successful prosecuton is probably quite difficult, as it should be.
Maybe the rules should be changed so all insiders announce to the market, before they buy or sell shares. If they have no inside information they trade on, I can see no reason insiders can not make an announcement of planned share dealings say at least 1 day and no more than 10 days before trading in shares of companies they are involved with.
That one was for reasons I am sure you can understand. The short answer is no. People either traded with inside information or they didn't. I think T.C. made a mistake signing off on those management sales immediately preceding the investor day briefing and I've made that point in a robust way. I have asked their general counsel to come back to me with their decision regarding whether they intend to amend their security trading policy for restricted persons going forward and have yet to receive a response. It might be time to formalise investor dissatisfaction with their lack of rigour in this matter through the appropriate channels.
I remember putting a post not so long ago saying I didnt think it would hold above $3--To be fair,looking at where we are now,I personally think it may be time to take a good look around. Management deserves a good slap for handling the selling so badly,but realistically ,this kind of carnage is more common to a major profit downgrade (not the small change that was predicted)or some disastrous court battle or calamity.
New Zealand is a country of polarization in many areas.
Im going to go out on a limb here and guess that given a bit of time(2-3 weeks?) this is going to start to blow over and fundamentals are going to start to build the SP again. I reckon the $3 ship has sailed for a good while and those that got in at $2.70 are going to have to wait a good while,but my GUESS is that those who jumped in ,in the lower $2 range will regain their investment.
--Since many have ventured guesses ,thought I might as well throw mine in.
Of course the smartest are those who wait for the upturn to establish itself and if things go to plan they could be in for a good time.
Most likely going for some sort of punishment for whats happened will be a long shot and more than likely will prolong the hinderance of a recovery---IMO.....Good ole cyclicals and market behaviour:p
We might get an up day today. Pretty big volume too, does this mean the big players are starting to bite at these low prices? Time to cover shorts and get in on the rebound.
It appears the tide is on the turn, big volume through, perhaps big sellers finishing up (We live in hope) VWAP at $2.05 so if it closes above that, that's positive.
Yes, recent experience reminds us that AIR is a great trading stock, but.............
:ohmy:
Reminds me of the old market story:
Three investors are engaged in a discussion on the status of financial markets in a famous steak house in the Big City.
At one point a knife falls off the table and plants itself in the foot of one of the men (of course, they're all men).
Clearly hurting, the guy asks his neighbour: why didn't you try to catch it?
The second investor responds: I am a technical trader. We avoid catching falling knifes. Why didn't you move your foot?
The first investor responds: I am a fundamentalist. I didn't think it would drop so low.
He looks at the third investor who responds: I am a contrarian. I had my hands knee-high in anticipation of the bounce, but it didn't.
THose big trades at 205 signalled the bottom
All up from here ...... bring on 3 bucks again
So 33% down but 50% up - yippee
(and then we can through the cycle again)
Welcome to the forum and thank you for the information which is much appreciated. Really I think if management were taking a proactive approach towards complete transparency is it incumbent upon them to keep the market informed that at the very least there has been good enquiry from interested parties about AIR's stake in VAH. I would hasten to add that I specifically asked this very question of T.C. last Thursday and he wouldn't even tell me if there had been good interest or otherwise. How is it we learn more from this Bloomberg article than the company itself is prepared to say ? Its a very frustrating time for shareholders and in my opinion the level of transparency from AIR's management is very poor.
govt will like a special dividend
aftermarket sales of 7% of total volume of day @205.9
Government has nothing to do with AIR apart from being a majority shareholder.
Could someone copy and paste into forum please? Sorry can't open website from China.
Roger did you ask TC around the business case to lending virgin money then to back flip and want to sell its holdings altogether. It happen so fast that I feel shareholders need to understand what was going through then heads at the time. How ever I doubt they will answer that...
Still sitting on the sidelines waiting to re enter...but did have a small buy a while ago but nothing like I was holding before.
Here you go...
Air New Zealand Ltd.’s stake in Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd. has attracted several potential buyers and talks are under way about a possible deal, said Richard Branson, the billionaire founder of Virgin Group Ltd.
It’s not yet clear whether Virgin Group itself, which owns about 10 percent of Virgin Australia, will increase its stake in Australia’s second-largest airline, Branson said in an interview with Bloomberg Television from Sydney on Thursday.
“There are discussions going on with them and a number of different parties and we will watch with interest what happens,” Branson said. “Whether or not we will end up buying it, we will have to see. I am a great believer in Virgin Australia.”
Virgin Australia shares were unchanged at 27.5 Australian cents at 12:51 p.m. in Sydney, valuing the Brisbane-based company at A$970 million ($699 million).
Air New Zealand, the biggest investor in Virgin Australia, in March said it may sell its 26 percent stake as Virgin Australia carries out a capital review. Morgan Stanley estimated last month that the Australian airline needs a further A$700 million of funds.
Add a Lot
Other than Virgin Group, Virgin Australia is almost equally owned by Air New Zealand, Etihad Airways PJSC and Singapore Airlines Ltd. The potential exit by Air New Zealand has stoked speculation that Singapore Air will snap up the stake to stop an unwelcome foreign airline muscling in, or buy the stake jointly with Etihad.
“There have been approaches from airlines that are considerable and I think that add a lot to Virgin Australia,” Branson said. “Those discussions are going on. So I cannot, I am afraid, go into details.”
In North America, Branson has been selling rather than buying. Seattle-based Alaska Air Group Inc. last month agreed to buy California-based Virgin America Inc. for $2.6 billion.
Branson said he was opposed to the deal but didn’t have enough voting shares to block it. Just back from Seattle, Branson said he is keen to see the Virgin America brand survive.
Virgin Ethos
“If they decide not to keep the brand, we’ll start again in America and we have some plans if it doesn’t happen,” he said. “I think Alaska, when they do their research, will realize that what they bought was the Virgin America ethos and to destroy that would destroy the value of what they spent in buying it.”
Branson’s space company, Virgin Galactic, is seeking to shake up the $6 billion commercial launch business. The company said at the end of last year that it plans to send small rockets in-flight from a Boeing 747-400 aircraft. Virgin’s SpaceShipTwo venture was grounded after a training accident killed a pilot in 2014.
Branson said he’s still hoping to take customers to the edge of space this decade.
“Otherwise, I would have miscalculated very badly indeed,” he said. Once missions have been approved, Branson said he’ll go up himself first.
“The new spaceship has been born and it’s starting its test programs at the moment and over the next few months our brave test pilots will be putting it through its paces, taking it into space,” he said.
Branson, who lives in the British Virgin Islands, said he’d be “devastated” if Britain pulled out of the European Union. Britons vote on whether to remain in the 28-nation bloc in a June 23 referendum.
“I just hope that sense prevails and when push comes to shove, people will realize it would be enormously damaging both to Europe and to Great Britain if Britain was to walk away,” he said.
I am going to resist the temptation to buy back in the 2nd half of the holdings I had and see how Friday and Monday go..... Maybe the last couple of attempts to catch the knife have taught me to be somewhat more conservative.
What are others thinking? Be interested to see what the chartists thoughts are as well.
It's a bit early to say the sp has turn.. But good to see it was up today..
I would be surprised if there weren't more with the same game plan. I must admit, this has been a lesson for me and not one without a decent loss. Managed to mitigate it somewhat selling and buying at various stages on the way down rather than holding from the top. Certainly wanting to recoup some of that but not 100% sure throwing back in to that level is right or just cut the loses, perhaps see how the half holdings work out and hedge my bets but I still have some faith in the company and a reasonable outcome on the VAH sale.
I do think if there is still some selling pressure to come it will happen tomorrow afternoon capitalising on small gains and perhaps a good start to the day tomorrow.
AIR doing well in safety..
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/20-safest-...-sh&soc_trk=fb
What's one of the main thing I fly with air. Safety
Im sure both of you are not alone-although I think the SP will gain from here -I also think its far better to wait till it has gained more and done so consistently..at that time investors will feel far more comfortable,and at that time there will naturally,be more of them wanting to come on board.
IMO the psychology needs to turn from ''dangerous beast'' to ''this is a majority government owned business with a good balance sheet and is still successful--I cant believe that the market smashed it so bad''--to put it simpler --when it goes from ''opportunity''...to ''safer opportunity''
I can understand why management did not want to say much about VAH--they would have to be SO careful at times like this---of course Branson could just be a flash in the pan but it is far easier for him to inform, than AIR management. Its encouraging ,if nothing else.
It brings to light the fact that an ailing company can still be of value, strategically. Could be a bit like buying a clapped out dump of a villa in grey Lynn---you are not buying a house...you are buying an address.
looked like it was way oversold yesterday at 2.05 and still is today according to some metrics, and on the weekly - needs to clear 2.15 for a shot at 2.30 next week according to the crystal ball lol
Qantas is testing the $3 support, I would be concerned if this breaks. QAN and AIR typically follow each other albeit AIR has taken a bigger beating recently.
Perhaps Qantas and Air will both be $3 NZ eventually.:cool:
I brought back half the number I sold a few weeks ago.Paid $2.1185 today.
WYN gets a speeding ticket and a price enquiry, while AIR gets nothing - its as if nzx has inside info more than shareholders.
Also personal views - AIR is now on classic DCB on the back of possible retreat of oil from hitting 50, and possible interested parties in VAH as that info is getting around. Unfortunately, both more likely than not will not materialise in the near future, ie. oil price will break above 50 (check volumes and iran's production) and for VAH, well i don't need to talk much about that.
(These views are my own and should not constitute any advice what so ever)
Just the usual "bonus issue'[bit over 1 for 4 here] the market often gives me on my long term investments.!!..lol.Makes my average cost price lower, and certainly makes the yield on that average very tastie.
Looks to me "fair" or "fairish" value is somewhere between $2 and $3.Selling at $2.83 on 22nd April and buying back today at $2.118,just makes me "well positioned.".
Well $2.13 is certainly a better way to end than just one week ago @ $2.05, Couta you are well on the journey back towards positive territory again.................well you are 2 steps on the way perhaps !
aiz trading at 2.05 - 2.1 equivalent nz 2.20 for Monday? that would be nice
$6.9m turnover of 3.26 million shares, the majority of which appeared to be quite happy quietly feeding the bid in modest increments all day between $2.13 - $2.14. Obviously there were willing buyers, that's what makes a market, but the quiet control with which the asks were executed today suggests the pros are firmly in control. They just made ten cents more than they were getting yesterday.
Onlookers of this thread would be familiar with my advising John Key to sell Cullen Airlines to Etihad.
A boffin from the Treasury has run the IRR ruler over the Crowns buy-in to Cullen Airlines.
There are three artices on the subject on the Treasuries web site. Suitable reading for a wet Saturday. Go to;
http://www.treasury.govt.nz/publicat...staff-insights
The authors conclusion; The Crowns IRR return on its investment in Cullen Airlines has been nuetral helped by a dash of good fortune due to lower fuel prices.
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
Jeez those Treasury guru's make life complicated
They should have just asked Percy et al to tell that their current holding aren't free but cost them $1.16 share
Conclusion - current price at $2.13 so they have made heaps even before counting the dividends (and the dividend yield is very high at the moment)
Job done - time to cash in I reckon. No reason why we should own half an airline
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/3...movements.html
I think this is very relevant. There is probably no doubt that NZX privately queried AIR. And seeing the volume and price drop so drastically without material information being released 'yet' (probably due to an exception) makes one wonder what will be released, and more importantly if that info has had some leak leading to contagion and price drop. One thing for sure is we have a couple of interesting weeks ahead!
I see this as a very positive development for N.Z.'s capital markets. I know one participant on here, (not me I can't take credit for that), that took the imitative to communicate their thoughts regarding AIR's violent recent SP drop to NZX compliance and this statement came out the following day so maybe that good honest bloke made a real contribution to the development on N.Z's capital markets.
Really though, and in addition, the FMA should run the ruler over management sales from an insider trading point of view. It will be interesting to see how they respond, if at all.
Now we know that there's credible interest in AIR stake from multiple parties, really something AIR should have released as a news release to reassure shareholders anyway given the complete air pocket the SP has hit, it will be interesting to see how many tens of millions of shares institutions will keep flooding the market with at the current depressed price. I would think those institutions with an extremely negative view might start to run out of scrip sometime soon given that over 16% of the free float of all shares has changed hands in the last 30 days.
Wouldn't it be preferable, though, for the NZX to make a public "please explain" request so that it all becomes public record, fresh air being the best disinfectant - and all that.
I tend to agree to some extent but it seems to me that this sort of price enquiry is limited to sudden one day movements in the SP and ninety nine times out of a hundred is met with the usual response with which we are all familiar.
I think this AIR thing is a different kettle of fish, (flock of birds ?). Senior management were selling with some apparent / alleged advantage in terms of information in regard to all the aforementioned matters we've discussed on here plus their knowledge of how the sale of AIR's stake in VAH was progressing, (or not progressing as the case may be). That we have to rely on a statement from Richard Branson to get any assurance that things are progressing okay is in my opinion a pretty sad indictment on management communication skills. How would it have been any breech of insider information or confidentiality to at least have publicly reassured shareholders as the price was crashing that there was multiple party interest and negotiations and discussions were ongoing ?
Maybe I am being naïve and the only investors that really count are large institutions, certainly its easy to form that impression from the fact that retail investors regardless of the number of shares they hold are excluded from so called investor day briefings, (should have a name change to institution and analyst briefing).
Not only has management's halo slipped, I think its vaporised into thin air. (Disc grumpy holder, DYOR, not to be considered professional advice or a recommendation).
LOL mate. I just like to see transparency and integrity in the N.Z. financial markets. I'm no Bruce Sheppard or Max Gunn, not even a pale shadow of either, but I like to try and make a difference for the better when I can and when I honestly believe things aren't right.
perhaps... im reading Taleb's book antifragile and can't help the obvious relevance to nzx's 'please explain' requests.. if i am using his logic right, it follows that any company receiving such query will cause a negative impact on it (and naturally the SP). Because the company will more likely begin to employ methods to try and stabilise the share price or guard information... and so eventually the SP will take a significant correction.. so I guess maybe it might be better for NZX to go behind closed doors to force info out instead of publicly stating 'please explain'.. after all ohpark0119 said it best below.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11647295
Breakfast TV this morning says they have a new sponsor in Jetstar and in the news segment chris luxon earmarked/tipped to replace departing Fonterra CEO=theo spierings.
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/5...ice-slump.html
air nz must be different a?
confidential enquirys mean the market isn't transparent as people within the nzx will now have insider information as well as within the company. could get senarios like the rbnz leak
Theo moving on and C Luxon replacing him has been mentioned to me by brokers over the past several weeks as an additional reason for the share price move. The rumour is now built up such momentum its like the Manu United manager replacement by now.....
ps Most likely good timing for Mr Luxon to consider a move given where AIR is at in its cycle and his star is as bright as it likely to get....
I agree, they may look at it for PR value with the real intent/agenda to change very little...in reality they need someone who really understands the industry,where they are at, has real strategic idea where they need to head and implement it...they will be lucky to recruit that now wouldn't they...
I wonder if it will hamper a 3rd positive day for AIR now the rumour is in the public arena.
early trades at 2.15
I heard someone from Craig's this morning say, on the news, that there was a big seller of AIR, has now finished selling now and thinks the price will stabilise/rise now as it is oversold or something like that
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/airways...-hike-b-189619
Interesting to see a Government monopoly taking it easy on airlines...of course the fact that they are the majority owner of AIR would have nothing to do with it...
On the Luxon thing. He's been instrumental in implementing an ambitious growth path for the company and the company is in the process of procuring the aircraft to meet those objectives.
In my view a departure now could be viewed by the market as him not wanting to take responsibility for the outcome of those plans.
It was interesting to read in the recent analyst day briefing that their growth objectives are now in line with the tourism growth rate to N.Z. This was a subtle change from previous growth ambitions' which seemed to be considerably higher than the rate of tourism growth and tends to suggest a more disciplined approach going forward.
I think the Govt will want the lions share of any sale of VAH and given the decline in the SP will be keen to see some real cash coming into their coffers in an election year.
Interesting timing that Treasury report on how well they'd done out of AIR wasn't it ! Carefully crafted to head off any left wing criticism in regard to the collapsing SP ?