current crack has fallen from highs to around 7.50 I believe
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current crack has fallen from highs to around 7.50 I believe
in the last margin throughput report
Singapore complex margins remained healthy and averaged USD 5.40 per barrel for the period. Refining NZ’s margin uplift over Singapore complex margins of USD 4.50 per barrel for the period was again higher than the normal range of USD 3 - 4 per barrel, driven by excellent operational performance and ongoing favourable crude price spreads against the Dubai benchmark.
so should still be on track for a good 2mths again
Hi BlackPeter
What I hope for ( $3++), and what I believe are two separate issues. The directors have stated a capital return for the future, all things being equal. Therefore order is, repay debt to comfortable level, resume dives "token" and return capital. Hence my 2016 prediction.
Regards
-dodgy (owner/shareholder)
Hi all
It appears that the NZR AGM will be in Auckland this year - 1400 29/4/15 - Pullman hotel. Please check your admission slip when received next week .
Regards
-dodgy (owner/shareholder)
Hi all, everyone seems very bullish at the moment but I still have the opinion that there is more downside than upside perhaps? (which I don't like to say as it is my largest holding at present) i.e. to me it feels as though the current s/p reflects the best case scenario playing out in the next 12-24 months. Predictions are for say $120mil profit FY15, which going by consensus would raise the possibility of 20 cents in divi's...... which for a share with a current price of circa $2.60 about a 7% return.. and this is best case scenario? hoping that oil prices and exchange rates don't go the wrong way?
Thoughts? I am happy to hold, as my average buy price is $1.90, but I think we might be in a holding pattern here at $2.60 for quite a while?
I'm in your camp barleeni. After earnings the price stalled and I felt like it could be a potential slow walk up to $3 with the risk of it falling back. I would be tempted back in again if it fell back to $2.20.
Well OGC is currently a PE of 6. There are quite a few similarities between both companies. I don't think NZR is in the same league as most infrastructure companies as far as sustainable returns for the future go.
I consider return based on the dividend only primarily because I don't consider this as a growth company in any way shape or form. I haven't got figures in front of me but I recall throughput as being very flat for the last 4-5 years, which I guess is limited by the plant capacity. So for me EPS is dividend driven only.
My thoughts are a) there is no opportunity to increase throughput and hence there is zero growth opportunity b) profitability of the company is largely dictated by factors outside of the companies control (i.e. no matter how good management is it cant really influence profit/loss) and c) no one can really foresee how the company will be performing in 24 months. Hence I am only looking at this short term, and certainly im not envisaging 'sustainable returns' like you would with a typical infrastructure company as Nasi Goreng puts it.
Morning Snaps and all
All views have been well canvassed in prior posts, especially my own. We all know about soothsaying, time and time alone will be the judge.
My preference for now is for owner/shareholders to attend the AGM in a few weeks and make their views known, ask the questions and seek the answers. The company wants and needs its owners feedback. If you can, help steer your company. your hard earned money where ever . It's your constitutional right - not only NZR but every co. you put money into.
_dodgy (owner/shareholder)