As I've said before, these guys are just flipping coins and wouldn't really have a clue, so BP you can't possibly know less than them. PS-Looking forward to upcoming results, might even top up.
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couta, with all due respect ... while it is easy and fashionable to beat up analysts, for the bunch of stocks I follow they hit the target price to roughly 60% over the last handful of years (meaning that the SP reaches or exceeds the consensus value at least once in the 12 month forecast window, excluding any shares where they predict a fall). This means, they are not perfect, but their predictions do add value.
Looking at AIR: consensus forecast for December 2016 (i.e made in December 2015) was $3.03. While AIR's highest SP in this month was $2.20, the share reached a high in January 2016 of $3.23 ... i.e. selling at that time you would have made money trusting the analysts ;)
As well - as far back as I can see picked the analysts for AIR in the past always target prices too high (if we look not a the 12 month period, but only at the target month). Over the 12 month window, they have been surprisingly accurate for AIR (in most 12 month periods in the last year less than 10% deviation from the target). Why do you think this suddenly changed?
Concentrating on the negative there BP. http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEA...07/financials/ Forecast net profit before tax for FY18 is now $501m the same as for FY17, so a significant upgrade from the expected profit decline that most analysts have previously been forecasting for FY18. Their FY19 guess, (yes it really is a guess that far out in this industry), has also gone up slightly to $422m. FY18 is consistent with my view that yields are stabilizing and that the initial period of intense competition from new entrants to the N.Z. market won't last forever. Forecasts are consistent with their ability to pay 20 cps fully imputed dividends for the next three years contemporaneously with completing their major fleet modernization program.
Did you notice that on the relevant table the FY18 EBT is higher than the FY18 EBIT (negative interest?) and that EBIT & NPAT for FY18 is less than FY17 (*)? They might have mixed up some numbers, somewhat invalidating your positive assumptions for 2018.
What I want to point out - you are very welcome to be optimistic and put your money where your mouth is ... but it might be a good idea to review whether this optimism is based on solid data or just finger trouble.
(*) disclosure ... a friendly fellow poster who wants to be unnamed pointed me to this issue before I saw your post :);
Well the Nervous Nellies are back.!
The sp ,$2.18, has fallen below the 200 day EMA [moving average] $2.20.
We live in interesting times.?
Yes, the chart looks ominous. Hoop nailed the top, question is where to from here.
LOL good luck with that approach mate and everyone knows we're mates so you know I mean that...but please be aware that your approach isn't recommended. See the section about diversification.
http://www.biblemoneymatters.com/wha...out-investing/ Joshua 1 V7 (be strong and courageous)...needs to be balanced with other advice contained in the good book.
P.S. I was going to e.mail you the above link mate but I decided others might also benefit from some of the wisdom in the link.
Still no sign of those op stats for Dec 16...