Presume next update will be at the AGM - about a month away?
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Presume next update will be at the AGM - about a month away?
Other milk languishing?
I suspect this is over stating things a bit. I doubt that your supermarket dedicates the same space to ATM and 'other'.
I also suspect that the 'other' is restocked more regularly so not sure how you would tell that it is languishing.
Maybe a gross exageration for effect.
Considering they put the additive in (%?) people may want to pay for better milk. Anyone know if they put that weird permate in their stuff in A2?
I might start buying it if they dont.
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-...-in-glass-milk
ok might start buying it: https://a2milk.com.au/faq/does-a2-mi...tain-permeate/
Mum knows best: http://www.essentialbaby.com.au/foru...they-the-same/
does A2 make cream????
There she goes off again.. Will a2m take over the world or is it just a bubble. Who knows but the hype is definitely there
What does the US market look like:
2 reasons
1. If it has potential they will be a takeover target
2. If they go it alone there could be huge growth
I assume they need their own herd in US or is it just powder?
The hound going for a walk to cool off too...can get a little warm under the collar with all the excitement.
Great saying Couta1 and thanks for the reminder.
Another good one a poster on here, (sorry cannot remember the author) made quite a while back is also one to keep in mind regarding the amount one trades and brokerage.
"Investing can be a bit like a bar of soap, the more you rub it the less you have".
a2 Milk™ and lactose intolerance study video of University of Auckland published on 23/10/2017 as reported in the media.
https://youtu.be/TICBqGJRCaA
The 'up next' presentation after that one you posted was proper interesting! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UDx...t=1678.9393711
Seeing how our forecasts are now too conservative, how about this one from Hot Copper......
"Sales doubling again over next 3 years or 24% pa. Currently growing at over 50% so may be faster. EBITDA margins 35% means EBITDA of $700m. Put that on 25x = $17.5 Billion. Add cash of $1b = $18.5b. Divide by number of shares = $26 a share over next 2-3 years. Probably sooner given growth is faster."
I call $100 a share before I return to NZ (currently scheduled for April 2021)
lol its hard to keep all four paws on the ground with this one. This hound came up with a neat trick to help with that today and resorted to revaluing them down to cost price in my portfolio spreadsheet to try and avoid excessive tail wagging and heart palpitations :)
Probably he is stretching the truth a little and actual only owns 14 shares (see here), each bought individually. :p
I've met seeweed a few times and have no reason to disbelieve him and think he has more than a "few quid"'s worth but then again on the other hand my personal belief is talking numbers on here can be a little frustrating for the young ones which is why I prefer to talk portfolio allocation percentage these days. (I have about 8% of my portfolio in ATM at present). Took a new position in Synlait milk this morning and might add to that or A2 on any pullback.
Some would say unfortunately, but I'm sticking with FORTUNATELY that ATM is over 80% of my portfolio. It may have a bit to do with the fact I have a number of dogs (dead ones I think as they never get up) but it's been hard to jump off a bullet train. Actually I did offload some baggage at 2.25 to take some profit and been regretting it ever since (sort of)!
It might be risky but what the hell was a man to do???
a2 Milk™ and lactose intolerance study
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TICBqGJRCaA
My take for the recent price kick in is due to lower fx rate for NZD caused mainly due to formation of new govt. and the new study re milk intolerance both of these events which incidentally happened over the past weekend.
Another futuristic event is being priced in is the impact of singles day event in Nov or 11/11. All in all makes for an interesting ASM coming up on 21st Nov, wonder where's the venue going to be this time around which is still to be announced.
8.50 now, wish it would slow down. Need to buy another 15,000 before it gets to 9dolla:eek2:. $8.10c new low now?
risk adjusted fair value is still sitting on $7
The euphoria worries me a little bit though as the stock has been so tightly wound around continued outperformance... don't want any fast action erosion of that 420% return :)
I'm wary too. seems to be knee-jerk reaction to lower NZD but that can change in a few minutes. (at 0.6900 vs USD, we've already reached strong previous support areas). However, despite the excitement over this stock, I think many people (on here as well as institutions and the general share-buying public), have not got onboard yet, which suggests some room to keep running. I think the level of public awareness is about the same as when XRO was $2-$3...
Not sure if I'm being got at or not here? A whole lot of my posts disappeared ages ago, but no I'm not an avid poster. Mainly because I haven't had much of interest to talk about until now. I prefer my A2 numbers to keep going up rather than my post numbers! And with most topics, I find other many other's opinions far more knowledgeable than mine would have been. Many posters are much appreciated (by myself and others I'm sure) as they provide insight and knowledge of which we may have otherwise been unaware.
To answer then - it might be risky but it's gone from about 18% of my portfolio to 80% and I'll keep running with it for the time being. Many posters have appeared to think that anything over 10-15% is getting risky so I must be in uber-risk territory - but whilst it outshines everything else I'll hold on. The rules say I'm silly - the value says not.
Motley Oz earlier this week saying HOLD: https://www.fool.com.au/2017/10/23/h...ltd-australia/
Good Morning Battlers. 13 days ago, in the 7.60s. This train just keeps on going, It doesn't stop at stations, it just slows down a bit so you have to jump onto the roof from an over bridge to catch it:D How far today 8.50 or 8.60? Congrats to all on board, relax and enjoy the trip. Next lunch stop folks is at $9 :t_up:.
not sure how relevant but large local broker puts Underperform note out on SML today. target $6 v $8.09 current market. thinks contracts with A2 Milk will not sustain current margins. maybe that's good for A2?
that what broker said too with ATM...I sold out under $3 and now just keep seeing ATM going up....can not trust broker!!!!!!
Frosty barr said ARVIDA target $1.51...lucky sold out $1.33. never trust broker...always trust the fundamental, the trend and own research. With 1.7m babies in china born last year alone....so u make your own decision.
Can you please tell us a bit more about how they relaxed the rules from one baby to having two ? Does that apply to everyone and are young Chinese couples really responding to this change ?
How many babies born per annum before they relaxed the rules ? When were the rules relaxed ?
Thanks in anticipation of your assistance.
according to the latest news..they will not relaxe the rule as the aging population is too high...I read a bbc short video news....the demand of milks and other food are high demand. That what the Chinese are buying all OZ companies and infrastructure....
So does Blake Waltrip, CEO of US operations...
https://nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/309220
Albeit a small parcel of 8,500 shares through on market purchase and paid $7.88 a piece.
Another vote of confidence in my books...
Factoring in the child policies in China is a bit a stretch imo....the type of consumers that are after these products mainly young - middle aged professionals, they aren't going to have more than 1 kid even if the govt paid them to do it...
I wouldn't suggest for a moment, that blindly following a broker's research is a sensible strategy. However, it is useful to help gauge what the sentiment toward a stock is. I seldom care about the fundamental value of a stock but I'm very interested to know what other people think that value is. In this case, the broker does also have some influence with (active) funds and it is fund buying that has pushed SML and ATM up where they are now - not individuals like me, anyway.
Margins generally decrease when the kind of volume growth forecasted for Synlait comes through, it is all part of the growth phase.
A2M margins can only increase where already high margin product can be supplied on such a scale.
Synlait can ride A2 milks success all the way into the next decade.
Revenue is likely to double for Synlait every 4-5 years. I personally am not bothered by the 1-2% marginal contraction that is being forecasted by this broker over a period where revenues are growing at 20-30% pa.
my read of the analysis is that it is saying SML is more susceptible to being commoditised. As A2 does more volume, they will be able to negotiate better deals with their supplier - SML. That is potentially not so great for SML but good for A2, as if they can retain high margins on sales and reduce their costs, bottom-line is going to look great. Perhaps I am being too simplistic.
ATM
Dependent on Synlait to produce canned IF for the Chinese market (Chinese label).
Has a 5 year supply agreement with Synlait.
Have enough cash to buy a distressed milk canning factory.
Synlait
Will grow as ATM grows.
Has other sources of revenue and customers.
Poised for exports to China.
I'm interested to know how many ATM holders have also bought SML and whats your ratio. I always considered SML to be a less risky investment which fitted my comfort zone more than ATM. Its been my best performing stock but obviously if I had have bought ATM instead, I would have done much better.
I was a holder of SML (no ATM) since $4.20 one of the first stocks I'd ever owned. Watched it drift for so long seemingly not gaining attention that I thought they should. When it got up to $4.90 I stupidly put in a sell order at $5.20 ...not really expecting it to trigger.. and then boom. Thing is, I never expected that the market was waiting for the Chinese regulatory approval - there was never much talk of anyone expecting them not to get it. So I assumed it was already factored into the price. Which was a mistake. So wasn't fun watching the rocket finally take off after I stepped off it. Ended up buying back into both SML and ATM equally around $7.45.
ATM and SML are good companies. With the demand of IF and A2 milk..both will do well in the next couple years.
But I believe, SML is better value than ATM. As SML is only 1.4b market cap with almost $750m revenue. plenty room to go..i reconk. AGM is in 4 weeks time. might see sp at $10?
both companies above $10??
Just to digress a bit, putting Amazon latest earnings into perspective which was huge beat on earnings of actual 52c EPs vs 3c expected. And to think they recently acquired Whole Foods which stocks A2 Milk in US.
Add to that Amazon as reported recently are on the lookout for good acquisitions across globe which fit their earnings growth model, I'm sure Bezos can throw few billion $ to acquire a great company like A2 milk.
I'm drawing a very very long string here...pls DYOR.
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/266067.pdf
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/268506.pdf
Don't want to clog the A2 thread up unnecessarily but I think its useful for A2 investors to have a good understanding of Synlait as their major business partner.
Worth noting that Synlait have substantial headroom with processing capability outside of ATM contractual arrangements and we know it would be easy enough for more A2 herds to be brought "into the fold"
The possibility of a merger at some stage in the future appears to make sense.
Great Call Nasi. I've also be interested in peoples views of A2 versus SML. I bought A2 at .75, sold for 2.25 and bought into SML around 2.50. My reason for switching to SML was a view that they were a lower risk than A2 given they work with New Hope and Munchin.
Ive heard John Penno speak and he seems very switched on and clear about strategy. He is acknowledged by dairy farmers in the region as being 'ahead of the game'.
stupid eh...yesterday broker said SML rating to $6..the sp started to plunge then today there is a conference presentation in China....
I think it was the broker playing up the scare thing to get in cheaper????
Some weekend homework for you my friend
https://christiananswers.net/q-eden/...nt-wisdom.html
The following from SML's presentation to the Select Equities Conference, released to NZX today......
ATM nicely positioned.
Attachment 9257
What A2 herds to be 'brought into the fold'? I don't believe there are any, not fully A2 herds at least, which is what you need.
Can I suggest you A2 shareholders read Keith Woodford's paper on breeding A2 cows
https://keithwoodford.files.wordpres...ding-paper.pdf
I draw your attention to page 6 in particular
------
The speed at which a herd will be converted to A2 milk production depends on whether the strategy relies solely on use of A2 semen (the passive approach) or a more active strategy that requires testing all cows together with selective culling and calf retention. If farmers rely on the passive approach, and assuming that cows start milk production at two years of age, it will take 2.75 years subsequent to mating decisions before there is any impact in the milk vat. Thereafter, and assuming an initial A1:A2 ratio of 50:50, then the A2 proportion will increase each year by about 5 percentage units (e.g. to 55:45 once the first cohort of specially bred heifers enters the milking herd approximately three years after conception).
However, the rate of improvement gradually slows down (the relationship is asymptotic) and a herd will never reach 100% A2 without testing of cows. For farmers who start with A2 semen and then complete the process by testing cows and selecting only A2A2 replacements, the total process is likely to take about two cow generations, i.e. about 10 years.
------
I want you to read the two highlighted bits in particular. The best case scenario with intensive management is that it will take ten years for a farmer to convert their herd, without any growth in herd numbers. Yet growth numbers for A2 milk spouted by investors on this forum have already priced in a 500% increase in A2 herd size in just two to three years. These growth numbers are so far outside of the reality of what breeding can achieve, I can only see the whole A2 investment thing ending in tears for investors buying ATM at today's prices. How can you invest in something when it is nearly biologically impossible to create the A2 milk volumes that the business plan needs?
Of course this isn't to say that the ATM share price won't go higher on market exuberance. But ultimately the market is a 'weighing machine', not a 'voting machine'. And the weigh in time for A2 milk is coming.
SNOOPY
Tailwinds have been stronger than I expected over the last week. I remain of this view and am more than happy to let profits run...
Snoopy I thought we'd already debated this A2 cow supply thing to death. Its simply a matter of doing deals between farmers to sort the wheat from the chaff. There are literally thousands of dairy farmers out there who have wheat in their herd's who have huge debt legacy issues from the recent dairy price collapse who would be only too pleased to be on the receiving end of some "financial lubrication" to encourage them to swap some of their A2 type cows for A1 cows. The herds are not ready right away per se, but the supply is there nonetheless. No need to breed them, just let the hounds out and round up the good ones :)
Thank you Snoopy - I didn't think it was 'easy' to bring A2 cows into the fold as the Beagle suggested.
Maybe he has a herd or 2 spare in his backyard?
Like the Beagle, I doubt if the supply of A2 milk is an issue for the planned production increases.
1.) Would SML have invested in doubling its plant/production without ensuring adequate supply of A2 milk?
2.) There are strong indications that other NZ farmers are already positioning their bets on A2 and there is more supply waiting. Here's a pic of an article of a new north island A2 plant in the planning for 2018.
Attachment 9258
3.)In a 1 May 2017 article in Agri HQ reporter Paul McBeth noted, "A2 had (has) been taking less than half of the 200m litres of (A2) milk it had contracted from SML's farmers."
9% up 2 weeks ago then 3% last week and 8% this week
Can’t ask for more
Say 5% next week and it’s over 9 bucks
And now only 16% away from 10 bucks - 2 weeks, no make it 3 weeks
While the cows might be there, it might surprise you to learn that the value of a cow is not solely dependent on its ability to produce A2 milk. Milk yield per cow is important. Temperament of the cow is important for handling purposes. The ability to give birth easily is important amongst other factors. To suggest that a farmer may be influenced to trade the cows he knows for others solely because the cows he wants will produce A2 regardless of all other factors is I feel wrong.
You say a farmer who is financially stretched may wish to trade cows to gain some capital at the expense of 'regressing' to A1 cows. But if the farmer is financially stretched, how are they going to afford to get the A2 test done to prove (some) of their cows are A2, when there is no guarantee those cows will be A2? Besides, are those farmers still financially stretched at today's milk prices? Why would a farmer voluntarily degrade their cow stock for the future when they didn't need to?
Finally have you ever heard of a farmer who has actually done this? Even one farmer? While I wouldn't dismiss your suggestion of 'rounding up the A2 cows' out of hand, I feel it is extremely unlikely to occur in practice.
SNOOPY