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Nobody has been able to predict oil prices reliably. Oil prices, yield and competition are in my opinion in many ways inextricably linked. I don't think the low oil price will do any favours to AIR in the medium term as competition has heated up and yields have come under some pressure with more to come.
In the medium term I think an oil price of about U.S.$70-80 barrel would be better for AIR's sustainable across the cycle earnings as that would enable them to take maximum advantage of their competitive advantage of having a very young and fuel efficient fleet as compared to the industry average, (expected fleet age 6.2 years by FY19, average industry fleet age 9.9 years, source AIR investor day briefing and IATA aircraft data).
let's see if it a date finishes settling under $2.00. And later this year eventually hit $1.75? Haha.
hahahaha nice one Birmanboy and thanks for a great website - have been using it for a couple years.
Baa Baa
I only use fundamentals for most my portfolio, but charts gives me insight at what chartists think they are making of it and what they're going to do.. most of it in my opinion is a self fulfilling since the proliferation of the info about it online.. and i agree with your view on the depth.. which is also why i view it, to get insight of what some are trying to do and how they might be trying to manipulate the market.. having said that though, i only do that when i am trying to be in and out the same day (my betting/gambling portion).. most my portfolio is split between long term and dividend yield.
US based but an interesting article
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/new...ectid=11643475
My pretty looking Point & Figure Chart is looking very sad at the moment - hopefully won't need to change the axis limits soon (downwards)
The latest column is one long red one of O's - and it has well and truly stuffed up what was a nice looking chart
There's a neat ipad app that keeps them up to date - only a few bucks
I do the odd one by hand - more from an artistic point of view than anything else
Great charts - eliminates a lot of the noise around the share price. The AIR one for the last 12 months has only 10 columns and has been pretty reliable to monitor the few trades I have made
After Forbar's "interesting" recent revision consensus broker price target is now $2.70.
http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEA...07/financials/
Interestingly consensus forecast net asset backing on 30 June 2017 is $2.29 per share and consensus fully imputed dividends between now and then are 21.8 cps (21.8 / 0.72) = 30.3 cps gross = 14% gross plus possible special from sale of VAH. I think its unlikely once the uncertainty of VAH is resolved one way or the other that the shares will be trading under NTA in a year's time and in the meantime we're being paid handsomely to be patient while we wait for smoother flight conditions. Almost everyone hates extreme turbulence but I for one will stay buckled up and on board.
(DYOR, Not to be considered a recommendation or professional advice)
Good start to the day share price wise
Back to the 220's today/tomorrow
I am always intrigued how line tracking the consensus target prices over time sort of follow the direction of the share price share (bearing in mind target prices are always more than actual)
Appears as if analysts are more reactive to what the share price does - rather than influencing the direction. That's how I see it anyway.
Just confrms its how insto's feel that matter - not analysts
Prob means they have no udea whats happening - including that unnamed analyst who said Air management wouldn't be any better than any other airline in forecasting the future.
Chart. http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEA...407/consensus/
.......and the analyst with the low number has been the most 'accurate' v actual price
http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEA...407/consensus/
AIR killing me in Stocktastic
Mind you being 26% down isn't the worst pick, VML takes that position
Attachment 8062
there is no more space on the chart.. its going to drop out of the monitor in a minute
AIR looking incredibly weak and yet to give any signal that it is time for re-entry. AIR is now in a bear cycle, which is usually characterised by big drops, followed by ~25% rallies, before dropping further. My trading plan is to look for ~180 (a major support area) entry on capitulation, with the hope of a dead cat bounce to~225 region over the course of several weeks. High risk play.
Cool... 180 will yield buyers a juicy 10.8% (at least for a couple of years?), not counting a Virgin bonus, so that'll be very nice :) :) :)
Stock fished the day right on its projected NTA level as at 30 June 2016. Company has bought back shares before when at a discount to NTA and has well over $1b in cash.
Last time I checked QAN are trading at 1.7x NTA, Delta 2.25x NTA, American Airlines 3.25x NTA to name three I follow. All trading on 2016 PE's of late 5's to late 6's and AIR is now 3.7 times FY16 earnings.
I know any investment in any airline is high risk but there's high risk and then there's cheap as chips which ameliorates some of the risk.
(Disc Holding, DYOR, not to be considered professional advice or a recommendation)
I am stunned at the SP at present, there's drops and then there's drops. Sentiment is ugly plan and simple but its not based on fundamentals, I am looking at buying the other half of the holding I had and nearly did so today but just not sure it wont go below the $2 mark at sometime and my timing thus far has been far from ideal. Even if they shake the VAH monkey on the back I am wondering if that wont even put a stop to it. Sellers dictate the price of any share and there doesn't seem a shortage of them at this level....
Forgot to mention, coming back from Wellington the flight was again 90% full. The koru lounge emptied out quite a bit when the koru hour flight was boarding but I was on the next one so had some additional time to kill but from what I saw there were no shortage of travellers.
wd I look at the current SP as completely irrational and ridiculous and leave it at that in my mind, kinda like if Briscoes announced that they were going to have a sale of all their stock at their cost price.
Anyone keen to catch the falling knife.....? It is looking tempting, but it keeps dropping
To be honest I am shocked at the SP decline. Would love a crystal ball to see where this goes 12 months from now.
^ Umm, that is scary.
To be honest, have been contemplating jumping on board again ever since it fell into 220s range, but just wasn't brave enough...might stay away for now. Flying conditions seem to be too turbulent at the moment :eek2:
just pretty scary slumping down to 205 but then again, it seemed to support at ~205. I could see the volume increasing exponentially lol
I think anyone holding is probably pretty stunned by the speed and severity of the SP decline and I know all of AIR management are as of last Thursday afternoon when I spoke with Tony Carter and the price then was $2.27, only 3 1/2 trading days ago. Can't help wondering that they're thinking now. Things could get interesting if the NZX did a price enquiry couldn't they !
Management sellers would still rank amongst the retailers.
Whose monitoring the T20 to see where the real volume is coming from; ask and bid?
There's way too much volume for this to be the minnows, besides they probably exhausted now and the big money is shifting positions.
Find out who this is selling, then figure out how low they'll go (based on when they bought in). Plenty of profit still to be had, it was .85 in 2012.
Dyor
BAA
There isn't that much volume there, yes it's probably the most in all open orders but if you look at the details its only 2 big orders and a few small ones.. the whole 205 parcel is not much at all in comparison to traded parcels... the big orders were put on yesterday when the SP was at 220 (were at 220 there was 6 times the level of open orders in comparison to 205)
I say there is still some more room for it to go down
Been there done that. Flew this thing down from $1.13 down to 0.845c from June 2011 to 6/6/12. A long drawn out flight over a year, then it took off, but then left the flight too early at $1.30s. This fall in the last few weeks is different, it's fast. To fast for me:ohmy:.
^XAL up strongly overnight - points to good day for AIR
No sub $2 this week smtrader
Another monopoly route falls, with Hong Kong Airlines coming in hard and fast with a daily A332 between HK and AKL from November.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11639127
That's the problem with low fuel prices - everyone can make a profit (or have a much better go at it) where it was marginal before.
That coupled with all the noise about NZ tourism.
Do the NZX issue "please explain" notices on declines . AIR must qualify??
Seat belt tightly fastened.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11643974
Will it just end up being noise...just shows how short we are on infrastructure to take the talked about growth.
Think we have takeoff - share price wise
Wednesday after lunch usually pretty good - esp when the world is happy again
QAN isn't AIR, but the AFR reckons the former's shareprice fall has some way to go - for what that's worth.
They probably had a look at AIR's SP and then worked out they have the same forecasted EPS this year. Today's lack of bounce on stronger overseas markets and airline index is the next chapter in a series of disappointments with this company.
30 trading days since recent high and only 5 green candles during that time (last 10 days have all been down). I think it goes lower from here and I'm sticking to my theory we will get a rebound on day 34 which is next Monday.
Wow that 205 line wiped out in no time...not looking great I'm afraid.
Traders paradise up early in the morning and then tanking after lunch for the last few trading days. Like clockwork in fact.
Yup as said earlier.. and i don't think much should be said about the 200 wall either..... usually traders like round figures like 200.. it might resist but chances so far looking like it will break that wall too... the nasty ride will start then im afraid.. buckle up
Backdating to the last cycle pre-GFC pricing, we can see a similair occurrence with psychological barriers at $2. Pretty much confirmed that a bear cycle was established after crossing the 200 day MA and support levels with large volume not too long ago, again repeating the cycle back in late 2007. Thought I might post this simple chart up for a few readers, not considered to be any TA advice or anything, just more interesting than anything else.
http://puu.sh/p4ab0/813e44e714.png
Yes looks like AIR is going through whatever happened in 2007/8 all over again. Can any of the old timers on here recall what was going on in 2007 that caused AIR SP to fall off a cliff like it is doing now? Maybe there is some similar factors between now and 2007/8?
Thanks. Seems like as far as AIR is concerned the market thinks we are heading for another GFC...this one specific to AIR and other airlines are apparently mostly exempt. Go figure ?
Maybe there has been some serious loss of reputation because of those management share sales, institutions lost some confidence in the veracity of management and directors ?
Never (paper) lost so much money so quickly, not even with Chorus. For those AIR holders who ever wanted to know what it felt like to be a Chorus holder during the bad times, wonder no more.
Fortunately AIR is 4% of my portfolio. Chorus was 50%. I learnt my lesson.
shiver me timbers
There you go: http://nztop40.co.nz/chart/nzalbums
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Gray Bartlett at #7 - what can one say
Air NZ need to use Gray in their next safety video
Wouldn't be any more ridiculous than the recent ones - what a waste of time. Last flight i caught the pilot got bored waiting for it to finish and taxied off down the runway - naughty
Any whiskey drinkers here with recommendations on a good scotch?
disc: I tried to catch the knife (twice) but it seems to no avail *gulp*
When institutions with Air NZ shares are approached to see if they are interested in participating in a selldown of a big line of shares (say, 50m shares) by a large holder, some of these institutions will start selling down their own shares - driving down the sp to get the shares cheaper, fully knowing that they will get the shares they sell back at a cheaper price. That's how the game is played.
150.000 traded at 2.02 on closing. Will tomorrow bring sub $2 or perhaps the Friday afternoon session.
If it goes below that $2 psychological barrier are we in for another sharp drop....
Hope it's not mark 2 Couta. Seriously, doesn't really feel the same. Oil is super low still, tourism is booming and really importantly I'm sure you and I don't need the money we've invested in AIR anytime soon.
AIR still above its 1000MA ...and well positioned
Trivia Stats:
Trades 487
Value $ 5,160,896
Volume 2,514,006
Over $100k 3
Overall Avg $ 18,590
Median $ 4,789
High $ 790,833
Low $ 57
After 5pm
Value $ 1,179,121 23%Volume 577,618
Apart from the last trade of the day of $790,833 at 5:11pm $2.052, most of it looks like retail sized parcels. Only two others above $100k, one at the open.
That after close trade at 205.2 look like it was one of those special deals where the days VWAP becomes the agreed price
Considering the price movement and volumes over the past 30 days or so, there are still no SSH notices. Only the Directors and Management notices, which last one 4 May is ancient history. So probably still not the really big volume players unless they're moving lots of smaller parcels into the bid/ask. Still, no-one has a 30 day compare on the T20 holders?