Full gas production from Kupe is scheduled for June 2009. The wells are safely drilled, tested and suspended. The undersea and shore crossing pipeline is installed and tested. The onshore construction is well under way. Its hard to see more than a few commissioning hiccups.
Tui production will temporarily increase when the next (TUI-4H) well is drilled some time in 2009, so there really won't be a huge revenue hole. One was forecast but the performance of Tui has been so good that it hardly looks likely to happen.
AWE are talking about some more tie-in prospects for Tui and presumably NZO will be in for 12.5% of anything thats going. The current share price is crazy, but its still in a downtrend so why buy now.
Also Pike River should have a positive cash flow by June 2009, although NZO won't actually see any until 2010, it should reflect in the share price.
The quarterly financials due out next week may start a feeding frenzy.