I interpreted this as FUTURE penetration. When you are growing from zero, it is very hard to predict compared to a well established company.
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I'm sure PEB do very much so assess the market Geo and have done since all that good market analysis information they released in 2011, but disclosing internal sales targets to the market at this early stage is another matter;
Interestingly, at last year’s AGM David Darling told us that they have quite aggressive sales targets, but IMO at this stage any early sales figures are just noise in the big picture and PEB have done the right thing in not releasing those targets at this time as they are not 'meaningful'.
Black Knat has kindly told us, thank you Black Knat, that Edision and a London based biotech analyst have been engaged for another market assessment and a valuation workup, and the timing for this is about right to do so when a product is just entering it's target market.
PEDusa like any other company will be starting to formulate targets for their sales staff going forward now too and there is some evidence of this if you read the job descriptions of those being hired during the present ramp up, Jackie Walker seems to have that in hand thus far.
http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/about-u...er?stage=Stage
Thats nice MAC but the company is currently (over) valued at $500M on (zero) $300k revenue. They better start cranking that lab to justify the speculation.
Was referring to the $1.70 or so price a while back. Sorry to all those who bought in then
At this point I'm almost thinking that we could all play main roles in the stage production of "the smurfs" we're all so blue in the face with all this talk. The more waiting we do the better.
That sounds about right considering that the SP went from .50-$1.50 in a matter of days--It will be time for those on board (in the announcements) to produce--doesnt have to be astronomical--but there needs to be progress.
Having said that,it is holding up well today considering that the NBI tanked a bit--anticipation for the announcement must be stronger than market sentiment.
Hopefully all is well - however I think traction will be slow
Its just how it goes when a new product enters the medical world, it takes a while before people adopt a new test (its human nature to stick to old faithful and what you already know), yes there may be a few tests anaylsed by the lab (100's to 1000's) but I suspect a high proportion of them will be free cxbladder "test" tests given to doctors to try. I feel there will be very few actual tests sold.
I think the price will drop as some people are disappointed - and I will be looking to pick some more shares up between 80-88 cents (thats a complete guess for the hell of it - predictions really are pointless this early on)
Dont get me wrong, I think this is a great product (superior to the current procedures/diagnostics) - however history has shown us multiple times that the best product dosn't always win - so there is a huge amount of risk still between now, adoption, profit and onto 100 mil revenue.
Im sitting on a few but have some cash sideline too - I think having all your skin in this could result in tears. (its easy to get caught up in the hype)
Now and then you have to look at the facts, PEB to date is still unprofitable and a spec stock, meaning things can change very quickly as we have seen over the last year.
Interesting and good question. I just ran some very rough calculations based on the 2007 AUA figures (link) with a few assumptions and my figures turned out to be very close to PEB's own estimate of 2 million tests in the US annually.
I agree this figure appears quite conservative. Given current follow-up testing procedures are based on expensive procedures their frequency must be tempered by cost and inconvenience.
If CXBladder proves to be a reliable alternative to cystoscopy and is validated by the AUA (imagine that), then I would expect the recommended frequency of checkups might increase. As you pointed out, some recent patients choose to be tested far more regularly than current guidelines. I absolutely would too given how easy and comparatively cheap it is to keep an eye out for recurrence using CXBladder.
Now the hard part is making assumptions about how many extra tests survivors may want to take on average. This will largely depend on their insurance plans and wealth. I wouldn't know where to start making even the most rudimentary guesses about this but happy to hear your thoughts.