Sorry to repost this but for some reason it disappeared?? I went to check on it and it was gone lol.
I have dug a little deeper into Osmium's accumulation of NZME to try and get an understanding of their Modus Operandi, their strategy.
Here's their buying over the last 10 months to get to 19%
Date of Disclosure % Qty Accum QTy $ $ per share
07/09/2020 8.78% 17,274,09517,274,095 $8,605,246 37c
18/09/2020 11.63% 5,597,615 22,871,710 $2,260,768 40c
05/10/2020 13.22% 3,130,321 26,002,031 $1,406,647 44c
11/01/2021 14.26% 2,173,589 28,175,620 $1,291,985 59c
27/01/2021 15.979% 3,393,604 31,569,224 $2,360,042 69c
23/02/2021 17.028% 2,072,167 33,641,391 $1,447,383 70c
27/04/2021 18.03% 1,991,489 35,632,880 $1,570,771 79C
04/07/2021 19.1% 2,111,288 37,744,168 $1,519,141 72c
So total shares 37,744,168 for $20,461,983 @ 54c DCA
Market price of NZME is now $1.00
So a tidy capital Profit of $17,282,185 - I wonder how much Fees they will get off that....As a % of their total AUM off 1 investment its pretty tidy!
It's important to know that the following funds REDUCED their holding during this 10 Months
- Aucap asset management
- Forager funds managemnt
- Spheria Asset management
- Morgan Stanley
- Telstra
SO what can we see from the above
1) They saw an undervalued company
2) Bought in stealth until 8.97% at a highly reduced rate.
3) continued buying over a sustained period, at increasing rates
4) Effectively bought on share price weakness to sustain the share price and Protect their DCA.
5) A lot of other whales got out.
I'm not saying they'll use the same strategy with SKY but humor me for a moment!
If they took the same approach with SKY.....
Lets say they target the value the business at 35c-40c.
I believe they will keep buying until approximately 75% of this value. so 25c-30c
Based on their shareholder notice they are at 99,566,028 DCA of $0.17 so another 100,000,000 at say $0.25 will mean they have
200,000,000 or 11.5% @ 21c
If the share price pushes to 35c they'll have a capital profit of $28m
Once these levels are reached I believe it will set a floor under the price as sentiment will have changed & not too mention the following factors
1) Property sale and potential windfall
2) No signals that other whales (apart from kiltearn) are wanting out, looks to be a lot of retail
3) In fact other Whales are still BUYING! FMR, Black Crane and ACC (more upwards pressure)
4) A large shareholding puts them at the table for any "transactions" they are considered "activists"
5) Share consolidation coming.
6) they will continue buying on an share price weakness as identified with NZME
If we see Off market trades dry up in the next few days/weeks it will confirm 2)
Moral of the story? I'm still going to be buying at these levels as I believe this will continue to run to 35c.