Send him one of your phasing signals.
Printable View
http://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/news/...cid=spartandhp
Agree Raz, last safety video was extremly painful.
Can't say I am a fan....actors world famous in NZ.....too long...and yes, the aircraft seat looked quite dodgy when they were putting the bag under the seat in front (if interpreted in that way). That all said, I will only get to see it three or four times and at least they are trying hard to capture passengers attention.
I'm pretty sure it's Tane Mahuta.
Te Matua Ngahere is the shorter, fatter one a bit further down the road.
Sadly both looking a lot sicker last time I visited them than they used to be.
Looking at the DOC website and the video again confirms you are right.
Nearly 12 years since I last visited them.
I usually ignore the safety demonstrations/videos - but have a quick glance at the card.
Anyway, what is this about an old man grounding AIR ?
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Interesting - just looking at the pattern ...
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attachm...tid=8536&stc=1
peak - steep downtrend - slow uptrend - lower peak - steep downtrend - slow uptrend - lower peak - steep downtrend - slow uptrend - lower peak (<--you are here);
Question - what comes next?
No thesis, Roger - just an innocent observation and question :);
Not sure either, whether it would be in any way appropriate to adjust the SP trend for the special divvie (which in reality was a partial capital return minus the amount they lost in a bad investment). Obviously - it depends what you want to show with the graph. If you intend to show past returns, than by all means add dividends and capital returns. However - if you want to observe SP patterns - what good is it to add past dividends? The money is gone (distributed) and will do AIR no good anymore. Any SP movement will happen from the now lower base - and this is what the graph shows.
Anyway - it sort of feels you still seem to have your heart blood in this share. I remember how this feels, I lost this way a lot of money myself ;) (though not with AIR); I do hope you are right and AIR passed already rock bottom, but I am based on the 2017 analyst predictions, the cyclical nature of the aviation industry and the ongoing jitter in the share markets (anybody noticing that the NZX50 is very close to finishing a beautiful head and shoulders?) not convinced. Anyway - this makes things interesting ... would be terribly boring if we would always agree, wouldn't it?
I feel awful about criticising your chart, sorry, so far it's been pretty close to forecasting the SP.
Here's my rarely published monthly chart (12 year view) showing the cycles, in as much as I see them. To-date this month the SP has broken out of the severe downtrend and looks like back testing it now. The less steep downtrend if it stays in force does happen to co-incide with the current cycle down at around $160.
Attachment 8537
Not advice but interesting that if one took an ultra conservative approach and just bought and sold the 10EMA/20SMA monthly crossovers, they would've done pretty well, with dividends on top while holding.
As an aside, I don't think it's valid to suggest the dividends should be included in one chart when it suits and not in another chart when it doesn't suit. Dividend included charts are useful for portfolio views, but they are not a reflection of the market, being what people buy or sell for right now.
Absolutely it would, what would we have left to enjoy debating ? I'm cautious on the market overall but am happy to take modest positions in very well managed companies with proven business model's paying highly attractive fully imputed dividends like AIR. Of course there is risk, risk abounds in all business's and people have to decide for themselves whether the returns justify the risks.
AIR meets my investment criteria based on valuation fundamentals but also I note after accounting for the effect of the 25 cent special it is in a decent uptrend. Even unadjusted like you seem to prefer it broke through to the upside of the 100 day MA a while back, (currently 100 day unadjusted MA appears to be about $2.04). My investment approach going forward is to only hold companies that meet the following criteria:-
1. Have a long and well established and profitable trading history
2. Have well respected management and directors
3. Have a well defined, proven and robust business model (AIR made money throughout the GFC)
4. Pay a sustainable dividend yield of at least 5% net to me i.e. fully imputed, preferably more than 7% net, (counting the money coming in makes any self respecting number cruncher happy)
5. Have a sensible level of gearing for the industry in which they operate
6. Fundamentally appear to be good value relative to their peer group and the market overall
7. This is lesson learned for 2016 - Only hold stocks that are trading north of their 100 day MA and sell when they break below that point absolutely regardless of the other 6 points above, (I will adjust for special divvies when calculating this 100 day MA trigger point but not normal divvies)
8. I won't invest in private equity floats in any circumstances whatsoever until at least 12 months financial results have been released so we see the real truth about their financial performance.
9. I won't buy any company not presently making a profit, (Bean counters have a very deep suspicion of any company presently losing money promising they will conquer the world in the next few years), this is probably an occupational hazard but I reckon its served me pretty well over the last 30 years of investing.
10. Don't invest in unethical companies (Gambling, war, tobacco, liquor or any other social harm like fringe money lenders who pillage poor people's scant resources, Geneva finance springs readily to mind).
AIR meets all my present investment criteria and presently accounts for approx 13% of my liquid investments. http://www.biblemoneymatters.com/wha...out-investing/
In here is great stuff including what the bible has to say about investing and diversification. I think my liquid investments asset allocation to AIR is very soundly based :)
Anyway for what its worth that's my 10 commandments of investing going forward. I shall print them out lest I forget at some stage in the future.
P.S. And happy flying http://www.traveller.com.au/how-to-h...economy-gle5hd
Best wishes to all for Christmas and the new year.
Just curious, why do you choose the 100-day moving average as your trigger point?