You have answered your own question
Printable View
Nobody has been able to predict oil prices reliably. Oil prices, yield and competition are in my opinion in many ways inextricably linked. I don't think the low oil price will do any favours to AIR in the medium term as competition has heated up and yields have come under some pressure with more to come.
In the medium term I think an oil price of about U.S.$70-80 barrel would be better for AIR's sustainable across the cycle earnings as that would enable them to take maximum advantage of their competitive advantage of having a very young and fuel efficient fleet as compared to the industry average, (expected fleet age 6.2 years by FY19, average industry fleet age 9.9 years, source AIR investor day briefing and IATA aircraft data).
let's see if it a date finishes settling under $2.00. And later this year eventually hit $1.75? Haha.