Do you mean Alpaca Lisp Bull?
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Do you mean Alpaca Lisp Bull?
?!? The virus situation is not of their making so what would you have done?
bear is settling in , price behaviour suggests. people are now accepting global recession is inevitable worldwide.
biggest early businesses to be disrupted if virus disrupts for longer time are
office buildings leases will slump as businesses new model will be workers working from home. any property stock with high office concentration will be affected the most also mall type property stocks.
movies theatres will die as on demand streaming becomes the norm even of new movies
retail stores with mainly brick an mortar operations as delivery to home becomes the norm
many more to come as disruption speeds up and robotics adoption accelerates due to supply chain and virus issues.
NZ stimulus wont help NZ much if virus spreads here and disrupts longer than thought. business support is for minimal time and once runs out the people supported will be laid off and small business will close.
The election bribes for beneficiaries and super beneficiaries mixed in as stimulus wont help the longer the virus lasts as prices rise due to shortages in products and services.
As virus spreads mass sick people will be unable to work , businesses will be unable to provide services and product shortages will become more acute due to cargo issues importing them and countries using supplies for themselves first before exports.
The stimulus provided very small amount of money for virus testing so true numbers of infected in NZ will never be known fully and the acute lack of medical supplies and equipment due to underfunded health system for years ( cant even buy a mask at the moment) will mean the virus spread here will be bad.
NZ is assured of spread due to the failure of early testing and lax border controls from the start and lack of urgency from leaders which will result in a deep lasting recession with the small business sector suffering the most , unemployment will surge. there is no plan in place for eventual recovery at this stage which is not promising.
it is a scenario. We need to model for various possible courses the response to the epidemic could take. Can you rule it out? I hope it will not eventuate. I never imagined that the Wuhan outbreak would spread so rapidly. That Italy would go into lockdown with Spain and France not far behind.
There is encouraging news on vaccine development.
Chill.
Everyone is entitled to his/her opinion but you also must be aware and mindful of the motivation behind the opinion.
I have no problem with worse case scenarios, dealt with them all the time when I was deciding on extending credit to companies - why, what if, how would and could. Makes for good decision making when making loans or investment decisions.
What I have a problem with are the rats who seem to fester a plenty to prey on the inexperienced, naive and easily spooked in times like these.
You need to decide who is what - and act accordingly.