Probably Rebel or Briscoes?
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If in doubt look at what marketscreener says
Target share price ranges 117 to 142 with median (consensus) of 126
‘Consensus’ is interesting - consensus is usually wrong......things that prove consensus wrong are all things that are not, nor could not have been, predicted in advance.
Although consensus is a good thing it’s just that the world is far more complex and unpredictable than the consensus normally allows for, so be careful.
Risk -> W(n).
I was recently reading a report about mainfreight and despite the very high PE, its value was being justified due comparisons with international peers. Could some of the KPG discount to NTA be that international malls may still be struggling and this negatively impacts KPG comparator's?
More developments in the central North Island mean population drift away from auckland will probably increase. KPG is perfectly situated in this region to benefit over the next 10 years. A study of it 20 year history shows its a very slow moving stock price peaking only on global moves in interest rates and not always in the manner expected by theory.
More of these population movements will come about.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/h...-rural-waikato
My own personal experience of dealing with A KPG development - Highly sought after locations - tightly held, minimal turnover in locations. They are pretty hard and fast with a marketing contribution 3-6%, and yearly fixed reviews at 3.5%. The concessions they gave during Covid were simply par for the course across the entire retail landscape.
I can confirm retail is not dying, and potential rerating based on whats happened to malls etc in the states is quite likely but IMO flawed. What works or doesn't work in the states quite often the opposite will happen here, or even Australasia for that matter.
Commercial values are absolutely skyrocketing, I have experienced a handful of market reviews recently and they have ranged from 5%-45% increase in base rents. I cannot see how KPGs next valuation wont be substantially UP.
Have a look on realestate.co.nz, there are virtually zero bulk retail stores for lease (offices and industrial on the other hand).
Commercial yield % is also hitting all time lows which effectively jacks the Asset price up. I received an email from a real estate agent who sold 6 commercial properties OFF MARKET last month ranging from 2.99 - 4.3 % yield.
Warehouse
Kmart
Noel Leeming
Farmers
Glassons
Hallensteins
Kathmandu
Macpac
Michael Hill
Spotlight
No bunnings or Mitre10?