I thought EBO was getting a bit frothy so drank it all recently. It's a pity 'cos they seem to have swapped to a bigger mug and it hasn't overflowed yet. Frothy overflows are hard to predict.
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Yes they are which is why I advocate only taking some of the cream off the top of the cappuccino and still leaving room for further tasting later :) That said...there's plenty of stocks that have performed better than EBO in the last two years and plenty more that have performed better than HNZ this year so its all relative to what you did with the money after selling.
Watching the MTF play with interest. HNZ have started DD but Turners close to a 10% blocking stake. Interesting watching this play out. Money on Turners though as an existing originator and a head start.
I think, at the end of the day, Heartland will get there, they are going to pay more than turners, and also have deeper pockets, resulting in 'greater flexibility' regarding a MTF bid.
I also think MTF will actually do better (as in prosper more) under Heartland than it would under Turners (and I think some dealerships know/feel this as well).
PS: Yes I am a bit late with my 'homework' but I do think it is a 'good deal' for Heartland to do what they are doing (regarding bid price and due diligence clause). I also think this week we could see heartland crack $1.30
Must agree with you,yet I feel MTF dealers/originators would be better off with HNZ owning MTF.
For HNZ,MTF would be a good bolt on acquisition.
Should HNZ walk away from the MTF,HNZ will be able to do a bigger share buy back,so as HNZ shareholder I am not too concerned how it plays out,although I would prefer HNZ to takeover MTF.
We should hear in the next two weeks how the MTF Sportzone court case pans out,then the fun could start.
High court took five months to make its ruling so just because the hearing is in the Supreme court next month doesn't mean you'll get an early decision.
Looking at what MTF dealers and originators are paid, they get by far the lion's share of what little profit there is in the MTF business model. Really looking at MTF's accounts and outlook report I don't know why HNZ would want to take them over, other than to get access to the really cheap preference share funding and to possibly change the commission model so the dealers get less. The board of MTF must give approval for any shareholder to take over a 10% stake so if they're acting for their members in accordance with their appointment I'd suggest they'll be seeking assurances that the lucrative commission structures the dealers currently enjoy remains uncharged.
Turners have first mover advantage and I think its likely the decision from the supreme court could be months away. Shareholders best hope for a SP rise appears to be with the prospect of a tier 2 Basil 3 compliant issue and the company buying its own stock back...financial engineering, decide for yourselves whether this is a good or bad thing.
Roger I think one potential benefit to originators (card dealers) with having HNZ onboard may be access to cheaper funding for their car financing. But I agree that Turners have a 1st mover advantage.
Cheaper more secure finance would result from a HNZ takeover.
The attraction to HNZ of MTF is MTF's strong dealer network,whose customers I am sure would be happier knowing their loan is from Heartland Bank.Dealers/originators would also gain by having a larger "product" range to sell.
The reason MTF works (IMO) is that the business is full recourse to the dealer who then gets the lion share of the profit. Change that model and you break it. Dealers invariably have several financiers to whom they place business and select deal by deal where to put the paper. The other observation I would make is that the assets are high quality because the Dealers only put the best business on a recourse basis - as you would. With NTA of $1.81 or so, the Turners and Heartland offers are well below NTA. Can see $2 being paid by the time this is over. Peanuts, popcorn.... The big assumption here is that MTF will allow a shareholder over 10% -without that, nothing happens.