Snr Roberts
muchos gracias
Printable View
Snr Roberts
muchos gracias
1B for me ...
2 A for the 10m or so neccessary to protect the company from predation
everything else 1
2B (nearly C) for me, for part of available funds, then preference for 1B at present.
My feeling is that if NZO step outside of the comfort zone (which needs to also consider shareholders' likely comfort zone) in the current environment then the SP could well get hammered even further ...
1 c
2 c
Agree need to stay in nz and need to act soon to prevent the kind of hammering the sp is getting today .
I'm not sure about you, but when I look for oil price movements, I dont look for daily movements. Because if we did, you would never get the medium term/longer term view of the situation. By your calculations, now we are $84.60/0.6050 = $139.83 NZD.
All you had to do was look at the NZO website and it shows the 'peak' just after the financial year end, to what it is now. Heres a graph, Phaedrus would have a field day drawing a trend line!
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3045/...97f4d5.jpg?v=0
What costs am I talking about?
As I'm sure you aware, the oil industry is usually denominated in USD, when our local currency experiences a depreciation versus USD, NZD prices will rise.
Some USD exposure that NZOG has with respect to production:
*FSPO announced in USD terms
*Shipping of oil products, in USD
Further, although not directly to production:
*Wages will have to be competitive, in USD.
*Drilling rigs, in USD - although not part of production of tui.
Some say drilling rigs will become cheaper, maybe, but remember there is a reasonable waiting list, and the marginal cost of oil that everyone talks about is with respect to the tar sands in Canada, not offshore drilling. The marginal cost is from an investment point of view, not ongoing production costs, so we cannot expect tar sand operations to close down until the cost of production is greater than the benchmark price.
so we cannot expect tar sand operations to close down until the cost of production is greater than the benchmark price.
-I'm pretty sure If oil falls below $80bbl tar sands becomes uneconomic
I think the Canadian oil sands companies are getting very worried about the drop in the price of oil (so am I considering I just bought BHP and AWE two days ago) OPEC will not be able to make a difference in trying to reduce supply, that's been well proven in the past. Supply and demand is in charge now.
With NOG at todays price it is mighty tempting to jump in and buy more but that would mean I'm 80% in one NZ share and we all know about diversification.
Been glued to the PC screen here in the US this morning as everything gets thrown off a cliff. Bit of herd madness taken over with the selling now. (selling the stocks I own so maybe I'm biased)