A good example of a turnaround story and following the directors and management.
Buy when they are buying - they were loading up with shares when there were plenty of doubters still about.
Perfect timing.
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A good example of a turnaround story and following the directors and management.
Buy when they are buying - they were loading up with shares when there were plenty of doubters still about.
Perfect timing.
SNOOPY is that $2 on the board whats happening how long do we stay or collect the DIV.. where is Mc Duck..
This is the 'turn around' that shows no sign of turning around. Shares are up 8c to $1.90 today. But already there are buyers at $1.92 and no sellers at all under $2. I also hadn't noticed up until today that Brian Gaynor's Milford Asset Management has appeared as a substantial shareholder, as of late January. All good stuff. It will be interesting if the upcoming quarterly sales announcement justifies any of this price action. Perhaps there is a bonus dividend on the horizon with the selling off of some of those Pizza Hut franchises to 'Joe Kiwi Manager'?
SNOOPY
discl: hold RBD, no plans to sell down yet.
Mystery solved Bricks..
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FORECAST: RBD: Profit Upgrade Announcement
4 March 2010 NZX
RESTAURANT BRANDS FORECASTS ANNUAL PROFIT UP 67% TO $19.5M
A combination of stronger than expected trading over the last quarter of the year (especially from its KFC stores) and the successful resolution of a pricing review with a major supplier has meant that the company will deliver a trading result ahead of previous expectations for the year. Restaurant Brands now anticipates its full year net profit after tax (excluding non trading items) for the year ended 28 February 2010 will be in the vicinity of $19.5 million (20 cents per share). This will represent an improvement of $7.8 million or 67% on the prior year's result.
The annual profit announcement will be made on 7 April 2010.
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EPS of 20c per share means that at anything under $2.00, the PE is still under 10! Despite the share price rise, this is *still* looking to be the cheapest share in my portfolio. Amazing stuff!
Probably frying his head in one of those KFC chicken vats by now I would imagine....Quote:
.. where is Mc Duck..
SNOOPY
NO IT'S NOT! That's what Snoopy thought he was doing when he kept buying into RBD's long downtrend, "topping up" with "bargains" at $1.75, $1.60, $1.30, $1.26, $1.24.............
The best time to buy is when the long slide eventually stops and begins reversing. When the first light of dawn tells us that the long dark night is over! When technical indicators that have not triggered for years start firing off Buy signals.
Even MacDunk understood this simple concept - as he quaintly put it "Any one with half a brain wont swim against the tide, you wait until the tide turns, then swim with it."
Yes I did buy RBD at all of those price levels. But I did keep on buying at lower levels as well. And that means my average entry price is now $1.02. You can call my strategy for RBD 'sub optimal' I suppose. But in this case 'sub optimal' means an enormous outperformance of the NZX40/50 over a thirteen year period. If someone did better than I did, well good on them. But as far as I am concerned my purchasing strategy has delivered - and then some.
I can't argue with the theory. But the question is how many traders actually did that (apart from you Phaedrus). Most of the other traders seemed to delight in dismissing RBD. Then when the trend turned, they were so poisoned of thought that they missed the huge ride upwards in what was in terms of my thirteen year investment horizon (so far) was a very narrow window. The way RBD has recovered now even 'buy and hold' from listing (which is not a purchasing strategy I advocate) is starting to look good.Quote:
The best time to buy is when the long slide eventually stops and begins reversing.
When the first light of dawn tells us that the long dark night is over! When technical indicators that have not triggered for years start firing off Buy signals.
I have to admit being surprised at the RBD recovery, at near to $2. I didn't pick it. But my purchasing strategy assured that I was there anyway.
SNOOPY
well done to all who bought... 3 profit upgrades in 6 months. amazing... 55c to 195
this is the kind of story we all want to land every year.
i have to admit they were recommended to me a few. one of those people is actually an acquaintance who is doing time inside! plenty of time to think.
at the time i pretty much laughed....
seems others are having the last laugh. I wonder if maybe WDT might be a potential dog to star for 2010?
The Dunedin North KFC has reopened this weekend after its upgrade. Just in time for all those students to trash...
After a 2+ year break, just tried to order delivery from Pizza Hut again. Took the on-line route (as you do), only ended up stuck at "order submitted", since the site decided to link my address to a closed branch!
However, rang PH - and after only a one minute wait, actually got to talk to a helpful person who processed my order and filed a report re my on-line experience. The whole ordering process only took 25 mins (:eek2:) start to finish so now waiting for the pizzas...
... so, pizza's good (tick), helpful staff good (tick), web-site (oops!).
I guess from the shareholder's perspective, having "room for improvement" is not all bad?
Thank the 'Burger Tower' burger I reckon, such tasty goodness. :)
It has always been thus with Restaurant Brands.....Quote:
I guess from the shareholder's perspective, having "room for improvement" is not all bad?
RBD shares did not respond to the recent 10% profit upgrade. It did initially with the shares trading over $2, but they have now fallen back to around the $1.90 level. One reason could be that quite a number of share options have been exercised in recent weeks. It is possible that some existing management shareholders are selling down their existing holdings to give them cash to take up their cheap shares. Or it could be other shareholders are selling down in anticipation of management doing this selldown when they are finally allowed to. Or it could be that having ridden the recovery wave and booked huge profits fund managers (are there any left on the share register other than Brian Gaynor, who is increasing his holdings?) are taking profits. None of these reasons sound convincing.
Looking through the share register I see that last year South Canterbury Finance Limited owned 350,000 shares. Given their capital requirements perhaps it is SCF who are selling out and depressing the share price?
David Novak of franchise parent 'YUM brands' likens the progress of parent YUM to being in the first innings of a ten innings ball game. My contrasting metaphorical image for RBD is that they are just starting the second half of a battering and bruising rugby encounter. That is because around half of the KFC stores have been 'transformed' under the KFC refurbishment program. Having got through the first half, the fans (read shareholders) are not entirely convinced they can hold on until the final whistle....
The biggest risk for RBD shareholders is I think that the managment and board will be distracted again by going into a new venture. It is slightly worrying that in recent profit announcements nothing more has been mentioned about the sell down of Pizza Hut to private operators. Starbucks it would seem continues as an unprofitable millstone once corporate costs are allocated to that business.
So where to for KFC, I mean RBD if they get through the current bruising rugby encounter? I know that Australia has been a graveyard for them with Pizza Hut. But I wouldn't be averse to them buying up some KFC stores in Australia or indeed some of those independently operated KFC stores that they don't own in New Zealand. Perhaps they could look at acquiring an Asian fast food franchise in New Zealand, like 'Hungry Wok'? Personally I would like to see them completely out of Starbucks. If they do any of the above I would regard it as positive. If they end up having to manage more than two chains I would regard that as negative as past experience shows RBD managment are overtaxed if they have too many distractions.
Given the PE of the shares is under ten with identifiable growth to come, I have no plans to reduce my own holding. There ends my state of the nation address on RBD!
SNOOPY
discl: hold RBD
Sell Starbucks, buy Noodle Canteen.
I think that we have a Noodle Hut in Dunedin now... :)
TODAY BRICKS wrote to KFC and remind them that the KFC was still burned down what where they doing about
a NEW store.. Had a quick reply back confirming that they would reopen on the same site and they where getting council consent process once
consent was obtained rebuilding would start and they are excited about the new store design that LEVIN KFC will have and look forward toto our loyal customers in LEVIN as soon as possible..
SO there we have it not much about a hurry that they are loseing $400,000 T/O a month or more but
Nick Thomsom still collects salary all you can do is ASK..
end with,, I hope you have a wonderful week..
Something very important psychologically happened on the market today. Did the market belatedly respond to the profit upgrade of 4th March?
There was sustained buying for RBD shares at over $2, with buyers at $2.02 and sellers at $2.03. $2.03 has some significance as taking into account the 1:12 bonus issue in year 2000, this was the original issue price back in 1997. A lucky 13 years after listing those original 'buy and hold' investors have *at last* got their capital back! That doesn't mean a zero return as over those 13 long years though, for dividends have been generous totalling $1.03 per share. Those of us who mainly bought into the share later, have of course done much better.
I expect there to be a pause where some of those original investors sell out at $2.03 and another pause later where the orginal investors who are not so good at maths sell out at their original per share buy price of $2.20. After that, on expectation of all of those pizza loving poms returning to their NZ campervan hotels for the World Cup, I expect the share price to settle at around $2.40, which will give a long term PE of 12. (I expect $2.40 may only correspond to a PE of 10 in World Cup year). At that point I plan to partially sell down my rather out of balance excess RBD holding. Why am I announcing this now? So that when the share price does rise to that level you guys can remind me of what I said today and remind me to *actually do the sell down*, rather than getting carried away in some kind of World Cup fever of pizza greed!
SNOOPY
WELL KFC the one to kick the can with an 8 cent div up to 12.5 cents the way it should have been for years like
a lot of KIWI company directors get hold of a big public company and turn it into a small public company, just
like TELECOM hoping RBD has learned a LESSON