I've just read all today's posts and no one seems to feel the share price may drop below $1..Monday may be an interesting day?The number of tests won't have a short term bearing on the priceIMHO.The share price is still looking vulnerable.
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I've just read all today's posts and no one seems to feel the share price may drop below $1..Monday may be an interesting day?The number of tests won't have a short term bearing on the priceIMHO.The share price is still looking vulnerable.
But only two of you have one thing in common that is both yourself and Sparky the clown are heavily into Summerset, now hold on there is a pattern here Bright and early in the morning, NewGuy as in Bright and fresh and Summer set as in Bright Summer, okay no more wine tonight couta:scared:
Just my thoughts.When it was $1.20 or $1.30 a pull back to a buck on those bad days on the Nasdaq created a panic .We then saw a quick reaction upwards and a few posters made a quick 20 cents. Good on em.The price however has drifted to $1.05 or so and I feel if there are weak markets overseas there won't be that group of buyers at a buck that there were the other day. See my earlier post a day or so back.The fact that all today's posts (except Balance.Sorry Balance did not see your post earlier) are all centred on tests or who is who.This has nothing to do with the share price short term.As I said last night and Balance alludes to the same scenario that the price could drop dramatically before it starts it's onward march.When people doubt the management and no one has a clue about how they are getting on then that only adds to the instability.Thats my basis for comment.May prove right or wrong .cheers
Don't worry Copper your be amazed how quickly those lab rats will appear if it goes back to a dollar,lab rats remain well hidden until the right opportunity arises
Good on you Couta....I am breeding a lab cat to protect the patch.Your rats may be hidden ,but it's when they finally give up counting tests and decide whether New Guy is a reincarnation of whatever that will prove whether they have the right opportunity to pay a buck or gently fade away to an ever decreasing price level...."..I was always of the opinion "never assume anything".I still feel that on a bad day a dollar will just be a price not a bottom......
Hope blakecb doesnt mind this being reposted, seems appropriate a few months down the track.
And lo, behold at year 2014 what do we see but "several tens of thousands" being the forecast long before Mr Swann was interviewed by ODT.
My guess is that Mr Swann was actually asked if things were on track to which he confidently replied in the affirmative and ODT went to the website to see how many were involved.
What's your appetite for risk?
a) high: buy at $1.00/1.01 (anticipating a double bottom) and hold.
b) med: wait for a higher low before buying either later same day or the next morning (with a stop loss say 2 cents below that low)
c) low: wait for both a higher low and a higher high before buying the following day (with a stop loss just below that previous day's low).
Of course the potential reward associated with each of the above varies - typically the more risk averse the trade, the lower its potential reward, and visa versa.
Bobcat, by the way you apply the term ‘risk’ you could actually be mistaken for having developed a perception from having not done enough research on the company, market or sector. If so, it would be no wonder that just following a squiggly line and hoping it will go up would seem to be an inherent risk in itself.
I would suggest that your use of the word ‘risk’ should actually be directly substituted by the inverse of ‘ignorance is bliss’.
When a stock is so absolutely undervalued as this one is at present, and we are looking at what is probably the best entry point for 2014, whether you buy here or buy there, a few cents seems to matter little in the big picture.
We may all very well look back at anywhere between $1.05 and $1.50 as having been a jolly good buy.
Love the above comment! Damn straight. Good on you bobcat. Always like your posts
Trader is no idiot moosie, I am a believer in FA + TA = RA. But the trader making more money than someone who bought and hold? Def not, the scenario you have provided means someone would have traded this stock to perfection which would be impossible... Not to mention all the tax on it, if the trader is paying tax that is.
Someone like hancocks who have hold onto it since 9 cents... I highly doubt there is a trader of PEB who have made more capital gains than the person who has been holding onto PEB since 9 cents.
Noodles as someone pointed out on another thread we are all traders the difference being how often one sells or buys whether it be daily or once a year,traders with no investment strategy(Or Lab rats as Mac calls them) can make money but only 2% are truly sucessful statistically the rest would be better off just investing and collecting divvys or going long on a stock.At the end of the day over a five year period its the difference between your purchase price and sale price that really matters plus any dividends received, think about those that bought Xro at $1 and sold at $45,they would have made heaps more than any frequent trader. However frequent trading is fun and addictive so appealing to many,personally if your on a resonable income,i see no point in being a full time lab rat,your better of investing but for those sick of their current day job or people nearing or in retirement i can see the appeal,ive certainly lost a lot a lot of money jumping in and out of stocks but thats how we learn best by making our own mistakes having not listened to others advice ie the hard way
Been doing this for a while now - and making good money. You need a stock that is volatile and highly traded - millions every day - and steel balls. Find the Daily lows and buy and sell on the highs. If you have a big-enough holding, two or three cents difference will give a good return. Profit is 30% tax, 30% reserve to cover your mistakes and 40% to the back pocket or wherever. Sometimes you can trade several times a week and sometimes you may have to wait weeks to get in or out but the profit is there for the taking - PEB is not a good bet for this.
Sorry for cluttering up a biotech thread with this, but I'd be very interested to hear how Moosie is going to do day trading. It would be keen to see
1. What his setup is (software, hardware, subscription services)
2. What his theory/technical tools are
3. What his profits and losses are
Please forgive me for being cynical, but I understand that Moosie is a museum/historian of some kind, and aged around 30, without a background in finance or similar. I would be interested to know what kind of "edge" he has over the big boys with instant live data, multiple screens conveying large amounts of information, and much larger budgets that enable them to "make markets".
Perhaps Moosie might be keen to start a thread on this on the investment strategy page? I would be delighted to be proven wrong, but I just don't know how the "little guy" can beat the big boys on day trading. The successful technical based traders I see here on Sharetrader seem to hold positions over periods of time rather than just mere days (thinking of Hoop, for example).
Anyway, good luck Moosie. I hope your PEB holdings deliver you some nice upside (if you are holding). It seems to be the stock that sits around doing very little until there's a big piece of news that rockets it up. Hopefully the next news event isn't far away!
Craic your a hobby trader in retirement trading telecom,I understand where your at and have successfully traded telecom myself a few times but this is not really the point I was trying to make ie Long term holders of fundamentally sound stocks will make more than frequent traders in the long run,this has been statistically proven,off course this doesn't allow for the fun and adrenalin side of frequent trading
Sorry for the off topic post, however this does seem to be 'on topic' for this thread at the moment.
My thoughts on the realities of trading for a living....
Say you want $1000 a week in the hand to live on... hardly living like a royal but should be comfortable enough.
$1000 + $500 for tax... so you need $1500/week.
Lets say you trade $10000 a pop and make +2% per trade. I have chosen $10000 as it is the first point where standard brokerage becomes most economic, and $10000 is a smaller amount to increase the chances of having that liquidity in the stock and minimising the risk by using smaller amounts.
So $10000 x 0.02 = $200 a trade. Minus $60 brokerage (30+30) leaves $140
$1500 / $140 = approx 11 trades per week.
So that means you need to pick just over 2 stocks a day that are going to go up by 2% and time it perfectly.
Obviously you can change all the variables, eg only go for a 1% rise but then the frequency at which you need to successfully trade increases accordingly and becomes less likely. Also, obviously you would have $10000 x a few lots so that you could be in multiple stocks at any one time.
The above example doesn't allow writing off brokerage costs and claiming other expenses, however it also doesn't allow for the ones you get wrong! So call that even.
Looking at the top gainers the other day, there were only about 5 stocks greater than a 2% increase, and this is especially the case if you minus out penny dreadfuls that rose say 5% on a $1000 turnover which is no use. I realise you can trade intra-day and get more 2% movements but again, you're going to have to time it to perfection.
Some people may think 2 trades a day is easy. I personally think 2 trades perfectly timed every single day in NZ with no mistakes would be very hard.
I'm not stupid enough to publish my finances here but I can say that our, my wife and I, live on National Super of about $550 per week and what I can make using my wits trading - we have no other source of income. Last year we had our holidays in Kuala Lumpor, The Cameron Highlands and Penang. This year it will be Queensland, already bought and paid for. We also did a tour around the North Island, staying in motels and had trips to Auckland and Wellington. A sum of money, under a grand, that my son left here for emergencies on his big OE has now been grown to seventy five grand, partly because I am more careful with his money than I am with my own. I will now go down the club and have a couple of pints and waste a few dollars on the horses and leave this topic to those who can stand the hot air that CNU has generated.
There was a quote provided from DD last October in relation to the proposed expansion into Asia “as early as next year”, so could be this year or perhaps sometime later. Though, hopefully it will be an entry by Pacific Edge directly rather than through Healthscope who have operations already in Singapore and Malaysia.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11144239
That stat pack provided via Andrew Patterson at around the same time left me a little curious too, it does suggest that at least some market research or consideration must have already been undertaken;
http://www.interest.co.nz/business/6...tech-partnersh
Sector: Technology / Bio-med Founded: 2001 Biggest market: USA Biggest potential market: Asia Staff: 31 (19 Dunedin / 2 Australia / 10 USA) Market cap: NZ$ 410 million Turnover target: NZ $100 mln within 5 years Ownership: Publicly listed Profitable: No Recent highlights: Securing two major customers in the US, launching a rights issue and being named as the supreme winner at the NZ Innovation Awards Website: www.pacificedge.co.nz
Welcome back. I for one really appreciate your candid and straight up analyses to not lose sight of the bigger picture :)
Don't forget to claim depreciation on your assets like chair, desk, computer.
An expenses like Internet, heating, coffee, tissues.
May I suggest that people take this whole TA vs. FA debate to the Investment Strategies forum. It has been coming up several times a week in several threads and I'm sure I'm not the only one getting sick of it. There is more than one way to skin a cat, with some ways working much better than others for different people.
Agree with Johnny, this is tiring, off topic and polluting. Take the discussion to its proper place please.
Perhaps the market has already plugged in the anticipated disappointments at the current levels. However, we DONT know for sure what the sales are yet and are unlikely to find out until released officially at the end of May. Presumably there will be enough speculation on this thread for the next few weeks to keep us all entertained. Have the feeling its going to be a long month. And what happens when its released? Debate will start about what the sales figures will be in november.
Time for a cuppa:eek2:
Chelsea bun, anyone.
I cant believe that I have read some of yesterdays posts and all of todays posts ...and no one has mentioned this
http://money.cnn.com/2014/04/25/inve...ets/index.html
(Nasdaq Biotecks down 2.4%)
Caution required
$1 could be threatened on Monday IMO
"You gotta know when to hold, Know when to fold. Know when to walk away etc............." as the song says. Blew about $100+ on the horses today at Cambridge until i woke from a guinness induced slumber to read that my $20 bet on Lauren Tate in the eight race had returned me $560 for a win and place. Full time traders play the entire market - I trade one company and at 76 have learned to deal with stress. Three of the people I drink with have died in the lat month - none of them were traders.
Well your certainly better off than the other 3, whether you hold ,fold ,or walk away.:)
Congrats on your win
I would think you would have to be ''pretty onto it'' to trade full time.
But holding full time without taking note of warning signs is not such a great tactic--Those that bailed awhile back when $1.70 went to about $1.50 are most likely happy and will have a chance to get back in to their favorite company on better terms.
I have two lots to a total of 150g. I have been up and down through the NZX and made a lot of mistakes. The answer to your question is - don't. My mortgage is paid, my kids educated and even if I lost my shirt tomorrow, I would have a pension to feed me so the stress doesn't really exist.
Some idiot gives me negative reputation for suggesting people stay on topic?
Guess I will have to stop reading ST or contributing, the forum seems to be getting more and more like the wild west. But honestly its becoming tiresome and a waste of time to read through all the chaff, no wonder important contributors are also leaving. Why can't people just put things in their proper place? Ahh well.
As we all are, I'm trying to work out where this stock is headed, but also why it has dropped so significantly.
If everything goes according to plan long term (multiple products earning revenue) then it has got to be worth something more like $10 for example, making $1.70 look cheap and $1.00 ridiculously cheap.
2014 is a big year for PEB where it is expected to start making some headway. Just because they haven't announced the first 100 000 sales yet doesn't mean things aren't on track for CXBladder. It will take time for things to change and we're not even half way through the year yet. It's early days and some people are being a bit impatient. So far everything would suggest we should be buying up large.
But then look at the shareprice falling away. It was in only a slight downtrend when the CEO, Chairman and Director sold out. After they did, it went into a much steeper downtrend from $1.60 to $1.00 odd. Three holders in the know selling out is not a good sign.
This would perhaps suggest we all should be selling up large.
Looking further into though, from what I can make of it, Anatole Masfen sold out completely. Swann sold around half. But DD only sold 100 000 of his 3mil holding. So what on earth does that mean? Very conflicting information there, obviously DD is still very happy with the progress of the company, otherwise he would also have sold much more. He's still in for the ride which is positive. Surely if they knew something that was causing them to sell out, they would had to have disclosed it by now?
So there's a bit of conflicting information there. If everything is going to plan then the current price is a steal. But why did Masfen sell 100% if it's so rosy?
If Masfens selling out can be legitimately explained then IMHO this is a screaming buy as Mac says. The future is bright. If it can't then perhaps it is only worthy of a small spec holding.
NBT
MAC, what are your thoughts behind Masfens complete sell down? I personally don't buy the argument 'they have better options at the moment'. If PEB are on track there wouldn't be many (if any) better options. I think it's a significant issue to address/that needs explaining.
Disc hold and still think they're on track. If I see any of those directors buy up again I'm all in. Like road runner all in.
Who knows, I don't hold the Masfen’s amongst the top investor set to be honest.
They have been in Pacific Edge since almost the get go and invest a high percentage of their portfolio in off market ventures, I could imagine that they are simply rebalancing and recycling as usual.
They sold 10M shares last year at circa 60-70c when they could have held for less than a year and got two to three times that. That suggests to me that they were rebalancing back to within their diversification limit, probably have just done the same this year.
From last year: http://www.nbr.co.nz/peter-masfen
regards, Mac
Look at what happened last year and the timing.
Pre announcement 45-60c
After announcement up up and away.
Rights issue was already set up and then issued at 55c and considerably oversubscribed.
D Darling said at the time that he was surprised at the share price action
That 55c is crucial because it indicates what the company thought the shares would be worth roughly at the time and at that would be the price the punters would get on board.
Currently we sit at around double that with no further major news and nov sales of next to zero
So whats the problem?
I believe it was stated that D Darling was unaware of others selling and he had some home additions to pay for.
Looking forward we have an upcoming Full Year report, AGM, product rollouts, more signings perhaps and feedback from all the seminars and conferences, advice on Spain, NZ and Australia.
Interesting few months ahead.
Sunday afternoon ramble - open to correction :)
Well Mac-I believe the overseas markets do have an influence(not saying its fair)
And you believe its simply because some short termers have drawn a bizarre linkage between the 'frothy'Nasdaq way over in the US.
I guess the only way to find out is to see if Mondays SP rockets or falls---Watch this space
I have a genuine interest in the company--Should i buy in a downtrend and lose money to show my loyalty?
There was an article in the herald I was reading and came across a sentence that stuck with me. Towards the end they said ''we're not knocking the company-just the valuation.''
Right now growth companies are getting punished--valuations dont always make sense
Is this Edison the same Edison who seem to be regularly updating a pretty wishy washy report on SNK (see SNK website)
Hope PEB gets a better coverage than that
Thanks MAC, that sounds reasonable.
So IF management selling down is legitimately explainable and nothing to worry about, then that leaves two options, either the price was too high to begin with, or it is now way undervalued.
IF everything goes to plan then $1.70 IMHO is no where near overvalued, meaning it wasn't overpriced. That would then mean PEB has been way oversold and the current price is a steal and that the risk of being out is great than the risk of losing a few cents for buying into a downtrend now.
Please note the IF's
Disc hold.
Divide that $1.70 valuation by 10 ($45M MC) based on limited commercialisation. Adjust accordingly when they can prove sales.
:)Maybe PEB has taken off again and blown a fuse on the main board at nzx
Btw how do you like my feijoa (pic) - meal on its own.
eventually, as planned. Fully expect things to be slow to start and they may not hit their planned goals. 100 million a year
will be giving a pretty tidy profit as will 90,80,70,60,50 mill. Think the key is where and when will they cross the line to profitability.
posted a week ago.
Since then, another two shareholders have had individual responses......I might send an email too, it's a very exclusive club
where is it posted that Masfen has sold completely? Seems more fiction than fact.
Our smoke and mirrors man has been selling though
Scientifically you need at least three points to draw a straight line, more to indicate a curve, so I agree this first commercialised quarter sales obsession just seems impatient. I know the SP seems a bit fragile right now, but I assume those with stocks here are in for the long term, so whats the rush to see an instant explosion in sales? I dont get it.
Back in. The fact that PEB's price has drifted down this morning rather than plummeted is IMO a good sign, especially with substantial support at $1.00 even. Happy to hold.
BC
Yawn is correct,
here’s the exciting DCF sensitivity analysis based on consensus sales expectations of between 1,000 and 20,000 sales as provided on this forum;
1,000 sales: Valuation $1.71
5,000 sales: Valuation $1.71
20,000 sales: Valuation $1.72
It’s the commentary that’s important, no reason why a confident affirmation that Pacific Edge are on track against the US commercialisation programme shouldn't see a drift back to fair valuation, …. probably higher if the lab rat's do what they do.
down she goes......
Not quite the wholesale panic some were expecting?
I dont know a lot about TA but that seems like a pretty significant bounce (large buyer depth to)
Back to PEB.
In my view a solid close above $1 adds teeth to the proposition of $1 support.
We may even see a hammer if it closes high enough.
I think there is some weight to the NBI and Nasdaq connection with PEB but it is not 100% determinative of SP movements.
I think long term holders are unlikely to care too much if they were previously entrenched in the stock. Nothing new on which to change their belief that PEB is a good investment for their money.
Anyone who invests based on moosie_900's one liners (long OR short, NewGuy) is a dope to begin with.
If there wasnt some weight to the NBI and Nasdac connection then this major fall would have been only due to PEB itself and I honestly dont think most would believe that--Like it or not ,its has an influence IMO.
Tonight's market will be pivotal for the US Tecks and Biotecks,and if you believe its not just all coincidence, for PEB as well,one way or another.
Moosie didnt cause the fall---whats the difference between his predictions and those that say its a screaming buy? And undervalued at $1.70?
The nzx50 tracking funds having much luck with their 'new investment' are they
The one that got tossed out seems to be up 13% since
Oh well that's how the cookie crumbles
I guess they have been selling down as the mcap has reduced? Wonder how much affect this has had?
Id agree with Hancock's range assessments
Hi Hancocks
yep I dont disagree with your analysis or your view of possible results. But I also think whatever the results are, be they 1000 or 10000 it is still just a single point, and it is too early to predict a trajectory. BUt I certainly accept 10000 is a better starting point than 1000 :cool:. I also appreciate your efforts to gain clarity on what any result may mean, so thanks.
Nasdaq down more than 1% from its highs for the day......not that positive
disaster averted .... nasdaq back onto green = PEB getting back to 120
PEB hasn't been tracking the NASDAQ or NBI recently so it's anyone's guess as to which direction it's going today.
Wont it be wonderful when PEB actually gets listed on the nasdaq. Wont be 1.04 then.:)
Looks like Nasdaq and NBI only just in the red(call it even)
Share price,like sales, are just a point on a line.
If the sales turn out to be a lower point on the line,then theres no reason to think the SP will not also be a lower point on the line
In terms of US markets,guess the question is -will it take good news ,or just the absence of bad news to bring a significant rise in SP
IMO it will take a solid lift on Nasdaq or announcement to see 1.20
Fascinating looking at the latest top shareholders' list of PEB.
My sense is that it's time to top up.
Haha - I have PM two others with my explanation but to clear this out once and for all :
The shareholders lists are public information but I don't know how you get it save as I do via a broker.
They get it via their information systems (and they pay for the system and information) and the lists are updated at least once monthly.
I cannot post or share the actual list itself - doing so will guarantee I will never get it again in future!
Re PEB - it shows that a major seller (around 5m shares sold) stopped selling from end of March. Suspect it is a portfolio rebalancing exercise they still hold around 10m shares.
Meanwhile, institutions are adding to their shareholdings.
All the other major shareholders (Tindall, Masfen, Harbour etc) are stable.
I think the trading we are seeing now are TA traders in action - can see this through the brokers' nominee accounts increasing and decreasing in shareholdings.
If you have Windows 8 then load the finance app then add PEB and you get to see the buying and selling percentages of the institutions.
maybe, just maybe yesterdays hammer will play out...
maybe, just maybe yesterdays hammer will play out...
Yeah $2 never far away, right?