Exactly......................
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Yes I wouldn't be happy at all if I was a shareholder in Turners. This for all intents and purposes looks like a punt on a binary event with potential for significant value destruction...a punt on a blocking stake. How do Turners directors think they can fairly value MTF shares in the circumstances ?
The mind boggles to understand how Turners directors are exercising their fiduciary obligations to shareholders in good faith and in their best interests.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiduciary Maybe they want to reflect on the definition of fiduciary duty.
Reading between the lines,I think HNZ have done a deal with MTF,and regardless of the outcome will make an offer or maybe some other deal.
Otherwise why postpone the AGM? And didn't MTF sort of support HNZs interest in the company.
There has been harsh words between these two companies before so I think you're drawing a very long bow with that speculation.
Agreed.
MTF constitution requires consent of the company for any shareholder to own more than 10% thereof, (source, content contained in Turners notice of proposal to acquire 20% stake).
Anyone looking to take this puppy over will need to be working closely with its directors.
LOL too funny !!Quote:
Perhaps they have a few spare dairy cows and they're running them in the race to give them something to do.
I recently opened a couple of accounts with Heartland (bit of anti big non nz banks feeling going on). First impressions are of very helpful staff but a couple of months into operation I am finding internet banking is not is simple and modern as the "big banks" was. To look at the 2 accounts I need to log in separately, cant have access to both with just one log on, with Westpac I could see all my accounts at once. I went to transfer some money from "Direct Call" account to "Transaction" account on Sunday and it didn't actually show in the transaction account until Tuesday. Westpac and BNZ are instantaneous. Funny enough the $15k I was transferring didn't show in either account on the Monday, mysteriously disappeared into the cloud I presume ???
Orright, perhaps fledgling banks can't afford the powerful computer systems to manage this, any other posters find similar experiences ?
I don't have a transaction account with Heartland but I do have a direct call account and several term PIEs - I can access them all from the one home page.
Initially I had several Heartland log-in identities as a legacy issue from having had a fixed interest deposit with Wrightson's and later opening a Term PIE with Heartland. I had to ask Heartland to close one customer number and transfer the account to the other.
Some big volume through today.
Attachment 7657
As I said before,somethings in the pipeline,and some people know about it,or are speculating.
Positive announcement and $1.60 before Christmas.
What's pleasing about today's volume is that the sp held quite well, which suggests buy side is very strong. Hopefully this could be the break out.
Huge volume today already.
Yeah, very bid is side has huge volumes building....$1.17 soon?
$1.17 is the 100 day MA line. Our friend Percy will be getting very excited soon.
Perhaps ACC are using their claims money to buy shares again.
PCC.[percy's creative charting].
Yahoo are showing 50 day EMA $1.14 and the 200day EMA $1.17.
The share price today is $1.16.
Now using PCC we add the recent 4.5cents dividend to today's $1.16 sp and get $1.205 cents.!!!
So now we get the full PCC picture==== HNZ sp is well ahead of both the 50 day and the 200 day EMA.!!!,lol.
The B S Generator came up with this today - "enthusiastically formulate leading-edge alignments"
Seems a good way to describe Percy's PCC
Maybe sentiment around the world now not so gloomy.
Dairy price futures up again.
Already 3 months into 2016 yr,so fundamentals should be starting to look pretty good.
And I think something is in the pipeline regarding a deal or aquisition, hence the volume maybe.
One way of adjusting for dividends is to take them off all the prices before it went ex.
And Attachment 7659 is what the chart looks like for HNZ, using dividend-adjusted prices as above.
The HNZ price (1.16) sits between the 50 and 200 day SMAs (1.11 and 1.19)
The mid-point PE over the past 5 years is about 11.5. If 2016 earnings are 11.5cps, per HNZ forecast, that gives a value of $1.32
IMO 11.5 is too low a PE for HNZ.
Off 4 traders based on current prices and consensus EPS for 2016 stocks
ANZ PE 10.6
NAB PE 12.2
BEN PE 11.2
WPC PE 12.2
BOQ PE 11.4
Consensus EPS for HNZ for FY16 11.0 cps...pick whatever PE you think is appropriate, at $1.17 it trades on a PE of 10.64 - Decide for yourself if you think its under-priced.
Disc I am still on the side-lines and while its fair to say dairy isn't as bleak as it was they're not out of the woods yet with an average loan value to dairy farmers in the 60% plus range...what banking guru ever thought it a good idea to let their average LVR to this sector get into the 60% plus range goodness only knows ?
'Sentiment' here is the % by which the 50 day MA is greater than or less than the 200. The green line is the NZ50 sentiment.
Both plotted on the RHS.
HNZ sentiment has just turned - it has stopped falling and started rising. The 'sentiment' chart tends to follow long smooth many-month cycles - not sure if it is tradeable though.
Home grown idea.
Percy and I ( Sounds very Regal ).. Have been into HNZ since the beginning .. Along with others..
Sold half a week or so ago which returned ALL of my original investment.. :-))))
Due to not feeling happy with the current market. ( Still not happy with the current market ) ..
However.. !!!.. I am sitting uncomfortably with the thought of selling down HNZ..
Made even more uncomfortable having the feeling that the right thing was done.. :-)))
That is the market :-))))
Aye perc ??
Through lack of interest I have stopped reading all the negative news about,China,Greece,Europe,USA,Aussie mining etc.
OK, the Aussie banks are having to raise capital, and have other challenges that HNZ do not have.
Latest Free Trade deal will help NZ, and so the future looks great.My NZ shares are going great guns,with more and more increasing dividends hitting my bank a/c.Last week HNZ,today AWK,next week SKL,MEL, and EBO.
I rough guide of how I am tracking is the ST NZ competition.I am 21st up 14.78%,and in the Aussie competition I am 17th up over 20%..That beats fixed interest."Better to own the bank, than having money in the bank"...lol.
One frozen kangaroo tail will be shipped to your address. What does that mean? Picture a kangaroo without one.
Yes it sure has been a good ride. I was there with you before it became Heartland. I have been though a very similar process to you. Back in May I sold a reasonable part of my NZX portfolio due to uneasy feeling about the market. This included a large chunk of my HNZ shares. I never felt good about it so bought them back in September, luckily for about 14c less than I sold them for and while they were still CD. I feel much better having them all back as I see no reason whatsoever not to hold HNZ as a significant part of my portfolio.
I am not concerned about dairy slow down having a major effect on HNZ as it is a small part of their loan book. Rest of the loan book is good and growing and I have little doubt we will see ongoing growth through acquisitons. Market action this week supports that view.
Hmm interesting sentiment line Banter...yes you can have fun making homegrown sentiment indicators
Low PE??? ...It's a "thing" with Banking Institutions ..During healthy times most banks seem to always be below the market PE average..as an example ANZ is currently around 11.2 and its shareprice has bounced around a bit but overall has gone no where for the last 3 years even with record profits
One way of adjusting for dividends is to take them off all the prices before it went ex. Yes that's the accepted rule..
Some charting programs have an optional tick box for adjustments (some don't work:p)...I find this valuable as most chart data by default don't adjust and TA indicators can get horribly screwed up and can have lasting effects
This may be a personal thing but over the years I have been stuffed up with adjusting prices with div payouts which has cost me money...so I have changed my mind with adjustments...
With splits or other such artificial price movements I still adjust..
But now I view all the company's one off capital losses as non adjustable ...
Whether it was fines or a victim of fraud or any other reason for a one off capital loss that doesn't affect the income stream we all don't adjust for these events so why should we adjust the price with a capital loss one off event such as payout to shareholders...
I have found in the past that dividends don't trigger sell signals in a healthy environment...if they do then Mr Market takes the view that the company could be paying out too much.. A no growth company usually display high dividends with sell signals these unadjusted sell signals are usually genuine as the high yielding low growth company looses its attractiveness and investor momentum for a few weeks after going Ex Div
But each to their own..that why there's an adjustment option box
Just for you percy
http://www.smh.com.au/money/investin...01-gjyqrz.html
Main point is -
The sharemarket loves a good worry. The best bull runs climb what has been called a wall of worry. They carry on irrespective of whatever the economic challenge, real or imagined, is lobbed before them.
It's when the market runs out of things to worry about that you need to, well, worry. It's in trouble then because complacency about realistic valuations has set in.
I still reckon the reverse mortgage business and Harmoney share give this stock growth appeal plus a reliable dividend, perfect in my book!
Another solid day by the looks of it, looks like worm has turned corner. Bring on $1.20, what does the TA say hoop?
With a fully imputed gross dividend yield of 10.4% and a 12 months TD rate of 3.7% it's surprising more people aren't buying the bank instead of depositing funds with it.
Yahoo says EMA200 is 1.17. Is it good HNZ crossed and went to 1.19? Some charty people here could draw somethings to illustrate.
In the mean time I will listen to this... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4eNBM17tkjI :)
Today's sp of $1.19 is very pleasing, for those of us who took the DRP shares at $1.11.
Nice bounce these last two days, people have clearly been taking advantage of the heartland being part of one of "Briscoes famous 50% off sales"... About time this bounce happened.
I think it will progress into the high $1.20's and then after a great announcement at the AGM, onwards and upwards into the $1.40's (note: this is pure speculation)
Any flag poles likely Xerof?
Important measurements for mini-ramps.
It's pretty important that you generalize the diminsions of your mini-ramp so you know where it'll fit the best (backyard, garage, etc.). You should definitely worry about the length, width, and height!
Length: To calculate the length you need to add up all the individual lengths of the flatbottom, the transitions, and the decks. It's highly recommended to add at least 2' for the decks, and as much flatbottom that you can fit up to 8'. The transition portion will pretty much take care of itself after you've chosen a transition profile radius.
The chart has been a shocker for most of the year but there is signs of life as HNZ is trying to break out of its downtrend channel..nearly there...It needs this channel break out to confirm the 117 bull bear line break... this helps to confirm the recent rally is not the sucker variety...so far so good the rally is creating a higher high and higher low and a primary up trend is being created and the 106c low point is looking more likely to be the bottom of the cycle..
The only worry is some TA indicators are not firing Stoch and Williams% are diverging (not on chart) and I would have thought MACD would be a lot higher considering the good price rally.
Chart not adjusted for Ex dividend
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...2012102015.png
Thanks Hoop for loading the chart.
https://www.nzx.com/companies/HNZ/announcements/271674
Just been posted on NZX, thoughts from those are around long enough to know about MTF..
Great news and sticking it to Turners (150 v 115 must e tempting fo take)
Makes HNZ bigger and wow look at all those other opportunities by working together with the mtf people
A reminder - HNZ never overpay and above all they always do what they say they will do.
This will put a rocket under share price ....may 140 by end of week
HNZ stated their interests in MTF one year ago until now be forced to give a higher offer reflect the HNZ board slow reacting to market and show the management difficult to make a quality acquisition.
Will be interesting to see the markets reaction. Although this was to be expected; no one can say this is a surprise.
Although what's happening with the court case? That may explain the caveat on appropriate due diligence.
I look forward to any reaction/counter by Turners, they will certainly be displeased with this.
There is no way they can make a full takeover offer until the outcome of the court case, due end of November, is known. It would be totally irresponsible of the Board to make a take over offer with that hanging over them.
This partial offer is solely to try and stop Turners from getting a blocking stake. Game on !
Funny choice of words - "more fulsome due diligence". Fulsome has 2 very different meanings, neither of which fits this context.
Just a stepping stone for a bigger announcement to be made at the AGM :cool:
Nice seeing HNZ throwing a hand grenade into the mix.
MTF was formed at a time when motor vehicle dealers had trouble arranging finance for customers.[A very long time ago.]
To be a shareholder in MTF you need to be an "originator", that is either a motor vehicle dealer,or a MTF franchisee.A lot of dealers would now days, most probably prefer to have their money invested in their own business,and not have the possible liability of MTF shares.For MTF shareholders, it will be to their advantage of having the strength on HNZ backing their hire purchase agreements.HNZ will also provide them with "more product" to sell. HNZ wll have access to cheaper funding.A lot of MTF dealers will be happier having HNZ ownership of MTF rather than their opposition Turners.
For HNZ it offers a nice tidy bolt on in a sector they know well.MTF have some very substantial dealers.
At present time we know the possible liability MTF have with the Commerce Commission,over the "Sportszone" case will be resolved on the 10th and 11th when MTF's appeal is heard.
I just hope not to much of a bidding war between Turners and HNZ doesn't breakout, otherwise it could turn into an "expensive operation" for the 'winner'... Has anyone worked out at a price of $1.50 a share HNZ is valuing MTF at (eg indicative P/E and other ratios)?
Now don't be lazy jacko
Last 1/2 report
http://www.mtf.co.nz/pdf/investors/M...ear_report.pdf
Your homework for tonite is to look through
Report back tomorrow morning if $1.50 is a good price
And
Do you see any fish hooks in the alan e sheet if a takeover goes ahead
Prob had good intelligence that Turners were getting a good response ....so piss them off with a counter 'realistic offer' now.
If turners were after a bit of green washing they be disappointed
Well rereading HNZ's announcement,I hardly think Turners offer will gain any traction.
I would think any "dealers" who have accepted Turner's offer will have no trouble "changing their minds" in the cool off period.!! It looks to me HNZ have nipped it in the bud.
So I see Turners have three options.
1] Leave their offer as is, in the hope they get some acceptances.
2] Walk away.
3] Increase their offer.This would mean they have a lot more "capital" at risk.
As I see it Turners are in no position to make a full takeover offer,and matching HNZ's $1.50 offer may be beyond their means.
Trader-Jackson
In doing your homework maybe just come up with 1) what you think MTF is worth and 2) what value HNZ sees in using the MTF network to generate new business
We'll forget about the synergistic benefits at the moment
Holders will no doubt be encouraged with the HNZ move on MTF, good on you, and against a technical breakout upwards it's nice to see some good news (and good timing by HNZ) .. if someone was still talking to someone else we'd be hearing them uttering endless "EPS accretive" suppositions, which have thus far not entered the discussion. But when will we see HNZ behaving like a bank instead of a finance company? Both banks and finance companies are vulnerable at what might be a topped out economy heading towards leaner times, but finance companies as we know, get slaughtered if the markets turn to custard.
A quick response, loaded with expensive consultancy Percy, but answer the question if you will .. the question was, "when will we see HNZ behaving like a bank instead of a finance company?" If MTF was a truly good buy for a 'bank', they would have been contested by the major banks. I think the majors might have no interest in MTF for good reasons. Let's think this through before assuming it's the best outcome for HNZ shareholders, and blowing off a comment with some consultancy report probably paid for by a bank, or banks.
Baabaa - when Heartland applied to become a BANK the well respected CFO at the time said it was 'really only a marketing ploy'
It was to give them greater degree of respectability in the eyes of depositors etc ..... and of course lower funding costs
At the end of the day they essentially remain a 'finance company' ....but as a BANK subject to a greater degree of scrutiny from the banking authorities
I know you were, no offence intended Percy. Banks, which HNZ is because it's registered as a bank, have three pillars of business .. Lending, Deposits and Payments .. in that order. Acquiring MTF is of course about growing the lending base, it's about buying the book (or a stake in the book), but it's acquiring a stake in tier 2 lending (finance) at best with mid-tier risk profile, at best, but often worse. Major banks don't avoid this stuff, but they don't normally buy the source of the borrowers, they just load the loans according to the risk profiles and maintain direct relationships.
HNZ advocates imho need to look deeper into the EPS accretive aspects of HNZ taking a position in MTF, which is not solid in it's own right, and balance that against bank-grade risk profiling. This will help to identify whether HNZ is moving progressively and profitably towards being a bank, or whether it is progressing a finance company, and what the risk to shareholders is. Jmho.
So essentially Baa_Baa, and maybe I have this wrong, but this is how I view it with my 'simplistic' glasses on, it gets the funding a bank would get, but has the growth of a finance company?
With the NZ economy fairly stabled (and expected to remain so), and unlike the bigger banks, HNZ could be argued to have much much higher rates of growth, whilst enjoying the cheap money traditionally only "banks" have been able to get hold of... how is this now a great thing? Really should have a much higher PE (and therefore share price) than where it currently is to reflect this impressive growth opportunity...
And yes winner69 I can't confirm if I'll get the homework done with so much detail, but I'll try:t_up:
I think MTF would be a bit small for the major banks however could HNZ itself become a target?
Eternal optimism is no compensation for quality thought and due diligence, although your enthusiasm is infectious ;). Just listen to what some have to say and learn from their responses, there are plenty here who have the experience to debate this and others will be well informed by it.
Shareholders when considering some of the T20 actions might also ponder why the SP dropped a cent today. You need to get on top of reality with HNZ, there's been too much focus (imo) on the SP going to the moon in unrealistic timeframes. The TA says breakout but the FA has a new thing to consider, a stake in MTF. Here they are announcing a potentially EPS accretive acquisition and the big money says .. yeah nah.
Kuala Lumpur = Muddy Estuary
So now HNZ has expressed an "interest" in spending nearly $7m for 20% "subject to completing initial due diligence satisfactory to it".
But wait there is more...
"interested in an acquisition of all of the shares of MTF, subject to completing more fulsome due diligence and reaching agreement with the MTF Board on an acquisition process".
So don't sell to Turners for $1.15 because we may buy them for $1.50 or not.
And who says finance is not fun? :D
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
That's exactly what it says PT
Small commitment of $7m at this stage - piddling amount to have a bit of fun.
But lets not forget the big picture. Heartland obviously want MTF so this is just the start.
Heck what will growing the loan book by a few hundred million in an EPS accretive acquisition that also increases ROE do to the share price.
The time to be buying Heartland is now - before it all happens and the share price gets its inevitable boost. May never be $1.20 again
That is very true HS, particularly with the uncertainty of the outcome from the Sportzone case. But I think HNZ have done a good job and as much as they can for now, to decrease the risk/annoyance of Turners getting a blocking stake.
For the car dealers, I am sure HNZ is a much more exciting partner in MTF than their competitor Turners
Don't Turners potentially do quite well by throwing in the towel and selling any shares they may have acquired already to HNZ ?
Well I suppose they could by selling the small holding they had in MTF before they made the recent offer. But now with HNZ having made an alternative offer, if I understand this correctly, any SH that may have accepted Turners offer have a "cooling off period" in which they can change their mind.
Suddenly HNZ are able to value MTF notwithstanding the fact that we don't know the outcome of the supreme court decision which could fundamentally alter the value of MFT ?
How is that being prudent with shareholders money ?
The offer is conditional on DD (ie the court case) unlike Turners which is unconditional. Basically they have floated a high offer out there to stop holders taking Turners offer, knowing they can reduce the offer if the court case is unfavorable. If they didn't do this, Turners would get a blocking holding and it would be all over.