Its here forever can't hide from it....Hey heres a thought is the WHS selling any of these rich Russian Oligarch's super yachts cheap? Must be a lot going round. New market for them..Holiday sorted.
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Why doesnt the warehouse give their stores a small amount of pizzazz or designer feel. Nothing grand but something subtle. Even around the entrance or checkouts or the clothing area. Just a few niceties for some feel good shopping instead of what they have always done cheap cheap, bulk and airy barn style. I'll admit I am not a retail maestro, (am very good at what I do in other industries), but most shoppers like more than a discount shopping experience and a bit embarrassing to mention where they shop. It's even better when getting a genuine saving as well a pleasing shop. If cheap feel was the right one then the mall's would try that. They get literally millions of customers per year
I hear what you're saying but the cost would be astronomical. HLG, for example have done a great job making their stores very stylish but wooden floors and stylish displays are not cheap and that's for a very small retail footprint. Noel Leeming stores are already very nice.
I'm confident in the current environment there will be a lot of brand substitution the likes of which I've talked about this morning whereby consumers will want affordable goods as compared to some brand where they pay more then twice the price for essentially the same thing. e.g. Would you rather be a Mercedes-Benz dealer in the current economic environment or own a Turners car yard ?
It's possible it would not take much. A semi-retired colour consultant used to help us enormously, she was cost conscious and also charged little, happy to give expertise. Similar with a garden designer we consulted, he would draw the plans and we would implement. These two people added huge value, as it is about perception and feel.
The WH store I go to often, has appliances on special and end of summer stuff on special in the foyer. They are always looking random and placed haphazard, and with printed price signs falling off and curling. The look makes you wonder about the quality. I dont know if the price is even that amazing.
Thanks mate :)
I've created some space in my inbox Baa Baa
Habits, I agree with you, a bit more colour and maybe some nice plants around the entrance way wouldn't go amiss but at the end of the day its always going to feel like a warehouse. Doesn't put me off, I like cheap and cheerful at Warehouse or Noel Leeming.
Not Warehouse selling or Russian Oligarch's either but this might be me. Not sure if the model description or name is what's described but in the add's narrative its described as "Stray Mutt" so is probably the right boat for me lol https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/motors/b...3?bof=ZBNvFBaS
LOL...might have to "slum it" down at Westhaven marina instead. Have to confess I'm a bit confused by the add...described as Stray Mutt but then the narrative goes on to talk about the boats pedigree. I wish they'd make up their minds one way or the other lol
BusinessDesk has a great article about WHS ....maybe paywalled
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/o...astle-and-more
Mums are raving about the cheap butter .....thousands of comments on a Facebook page
657 Pet products, WOW...hang on a minute isn't pet care a real growth area !
Your Speedy Az would look dashingly handsome in one of those tartan coats this winter mate. https://www.thewarehouse.co.nz/c/food-pets-household
Consumer staples and financials have done well on the US market year to date. For example check out the chart on Dollar Tree https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...TREE-INC-4868/ on a current year PE of 22. (No dividends at all, what the heck ?)
Good we have a consumer staples company we can invest in here on a really compelling PE of about half that and average 10.8% gross yield in FY23 and FY24. We should be so lucky to have such opportunities and count our blessings every time a huge fully imputed dividend comes in...roll on 26 April :t_up:
Missed MR B chair leading the retail sector on the NZX.
Prices holding up well and WHS certainly staying in a very attractive range.
"consumer discretionary spending retrenchment has only just started and has a LONG way to go"
Mr B has stated possible recession ? or govt spending keeps going ?
impact on NZ retail sector?
Consumer staples, WHS will outperform and Briscoes should do okay. Consumer discretionary will be hit pretty hard I reckon. Kathmandu and Michael Hill look vulnerable to me. HLG somewhere in the middle, some effect, hard to predict how much.
My 2 cents.
Worth more then 2 cents for sure.
looks very accurate assessment. MHJ may continue its miracle perhaps. Defying logic but with WHS under cutting supermarkets its looking more and more like a winner().
Robertson definitely will be chucking around some more of the borrowed money in his May budget to "offset the cost of living crisis".However, while will have his eye on next year's election, he will mainly keep his powder dry for the 2023 lolly scramble. Both events will be good for WHS, BGP and probably HLG.
"count our blessings every time a huge fully imputed dividend comes in...roll on 26 April "
34,684,312.00 Total dividend to be paid.
Will you and Mrs B get a big helping of dividend Beagle.
Pressure on incomes from interest rates rises. Record levels of unemployment mitigating the canary..
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/128...y-in-coal-mine
Brokers remain really bullish with an average price target of $3.70 and a BUY rating.
Forecasting 20 cps fully imputed dividends this year rising to 24 cents in FY23 and 25 in FY24.
FY23 PE only 10.3 and FY24 only 9.6 and eps rising nicely from 29 cps this year to 31 cps and 33 cps in FY24.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...364/consensus/
I remain of the view the consumer staples are the best area of retail in the prevailing environment.
I think WHS advertising "Hey small spender" and then promoting a range of discounted grocery staples hits the nail on the head perfectly for the times we live in and is a very good plan to get more people into their stores.
WHS a buy then in spite of head winds and some messy software to sort out...
Thank you MR B.
Silly questions / comments don't get answered. Its not about me, its about this companies ability through selling consumer staples to be a superb income generator for all shareholders.
"eps rising nicely from 29 cps this year to 31 cps and 33 cps in FY24."
Seems slow growth, maintaining inflation rate. Does this forecast allow expansion into grocery retailing etc
Consumer staples companies tend to be modest growth. This is an income stock first and foremost with 10.8% gross average forecast yield for FY23 and FY24. I think the rate at which they expand their grocery retailing is a matter that's currently a work in progress. Lets see what the company has to say about their future plans in their full year report in due course.
I think that hits the nail directly on the head. There's no question in my mind that there's never been such a head of steam with consumer resentment towards the incumbent supermarket duopoly that are taking consumers to the cleaners every time they shop so the current environment certainly provides a very fertile ground for WHS expansion.
These massive profit margins the super markets are marking... going to be easy for WHS to slip in and get a piece of the pie. Looking forward to reading about all the dollars they are making off groceries in the coming reports.
Mind you, might be a couple of periods of losses while they get their systems sorted. But much like the Market its a long term game
warehouse sales will fall next report my pick.
out of stocks is getting worse and with the lockdowns in china making port congestion worse and delays to deliveries this is not good for all retailers.
Yes well that's a pretty safe bet because for most of this quarter Omricon has been rampant. Chinese are starting to try and open things up.
To be clear, investing now I am investing taking a "look through the immediate short term challenges" approach. I believe if you wait for spring time to invest for the November dividend, on the balance of probabilities the price then will be higher than it is now but I agree that we live in interesting times. This is a medium to long term investment for me. My plan is to simply replace income from work with income from WHS and "others" so I can get even more semi retired than I already am. "Others" are probably going to be lifting my stakes in HGH, TRA, ARG and GNE which are all strong income generators.
WHS unaudited to jan 2022 reported sales lower than last year and inventories up.
looks like they may have a small reserve in place and perhaps they like many other companies around the world will be looking to diversify the supply chain.
no one want to be stuck anymore with supply from country's that have high political risks.
Waltz- the only retailer to increase sales is MHJ??
Zb afternoon host read out a text of how cheap the butter etc are at Whs. Wonder who sent it, smart move
"increase sales is MHJ"
snowed under with software this winter. Need another large curved screen up rotating dash board of info to remember.. Was just looking at MHJ result again!!!!
hard to believe!!!
and re checking WHS inventory and sales.
FY22Q3 (13 weeks)
-----------------------LYQ3-- YTDQ3 ----VAR
Total all stores AUD 118.5 131.6 11.1%
perhaps winner() can find something very wrong beneath the surface.
Good positive indicator for retail generally over the last few months. Notably I see N.Z. sales were up 3% so some encouragement there on the domestic front with N.Z. retail spending.
"sales were up 3%"
SP's on the retail stocks seem a bit stuck and perhaps forming a base here. The market doesnt want to get to far ahead with inflation pushing down on them by the looks.
of course if they can maintain the DIV's it does provide an opportunity to ACCUMULATE.
BUY HOLD SELL ACCUM.
Publish the AVE DIV a while back after winner published the numbers since early last decade.
New management seems to want to hike the DIV and push the SP up perhaps because it build into performance incentives to come.
C suite salaries to increase along with performance share options parcels.
doesnt accept bitcoin yet but you never know..
Yes I think accumulate on any untoward weakness is a good strategy and expansion of food is currently priced as a free option.
Government certainly making plenty of noise as are consumers. https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/natio...0dea76f7088ab6
I think Nick is copying Walmart, (up 11% YTD in the US) who are also making waves against the supermarket chains there. Walmart doing well in the US as consumers change their buying behavior for generic basic brands. Incidentally, Walmart is on ~ 29 times FY22 earnings, pays a 1.6% dividend yield and is the street rates it a BUY
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...41/financials/
Plenty of love for Walmart by the experts on CNBC.
Bull - I posted the details of WHS superb track record of dividends a few pages back. Please go and have a look at that post before making nonsense claims about WHS dividend track record. The average dividend overt the last 20 years or so including during the GFC is about 23 cps which is about 32 cps gross. I posted average analyst dividend expectations going forward yesterday, 20 cps, rising to 24 cps in FY23 and 25 cps in FY24.
WHS also do really good work in the community, see 18 pages of it here https://www.thewarehousegroup.co.nz/...ccm_paging_p=1 and paid back the wage subsidy, (about $60m from memory) so there are elements of feel good about investing in them too.
my comment was in relation to recent yrs , i do not consider prior to that as relevant anymore as the business environment was totally different
so if 22 full yr div is less then 35c then last few yrs are up down up down maybe a pattern or will it revert to long term decline like way back ( still to be decided ) lets see how costco go
If its not for you that's fine bull. I'm really impressed with their dividend track record across a range of business cycles.
Of course things got lumpy during Covid, like they have for almost everyone else.
1 store of Costco that's running well behind schedule. I'm really scared lol
Can you name me a single other company on the NZX that's forecast to pay more than 10% gross average yield in FY23 and FY24 ?
Please, I am all ears if you can name any other company paying that !
Maybe Nick has to have a few chinwags with Greg Foran to get some Walmart ideas
Yes there are some headwinds and I've acknowledged that many times. Its a forecast, and no forecast is a certainty but again, I would refer you to their superb long term track record of strong dividend payments across many business cycles. The best and most reliable guide to the future is the past.
As I said before a high dividend yields usually do not last, so either the dividend is cut or the share price increases, I think the latter!
You don't get a bargain all the time at the sheds - a cereal we buy $7.50 at WHS and $5.99 at the supermarket
Classic dividend trap?
WHS margins are going to be squeezed big time in the next couple of years
Why would you say that?
Transport costs already on the downtrend.
Fuel cost will go down as well (after the big reshuffle of the oil sources)
Rent and property prices will stagnate (or even drop a bit) - this started as well
Product cost will be the same (or less - big buyer) as what their competitors are paying
So - why do you think their margins will be squeezed?
No problem if its not for you mate. Average analyst forecast is for steadily growing earnings and dividends and that's on a dirt cheap PE and the average analyst price target is $3.70. I guess people see what they want to see.
I see a long and highly credible history of excellent fully imputed dividends and forecasts suggesting that will continue.
In the erly 2000's I was part of a study that a few retailers were undertaking as to whether there was a trend from consumers 'trading up' to one of 'trading down'. Warehouse was one of the participants and we had the benefit of being assisted by a consultant with a lot of global knowledge of consumer trends. The timing coincided with the arrival of big box retailers like Bunnings into NZ and the likes of Warehouse were a bit concerned about what may happen.
The conclusion we came to was that if done well 'Cheap is Good'. But what I thought was fascinating was that the 'trading down' market was estimated to be about double the size of the 'trading up' market ...... and that when consumers became a 'trading down' one (usually when times became tough) that attitude stayed with them for some time.
Maybe these things came and go and we could be seeing a new wave of 'trading down' consumers .... and they will stay that way for some time.
Might try and find the report ….got it somewhere
WHS - My rudimentary technical analysis thoughts. Someone else might like to post a chart over the last 6 months but to me this looks like its built a pretty good base in the low $3's since late January. TA experts will have their own theories but in my experience a base built over 3 months or more is usually a very good sign for the future. The fact its built this base while also going ex a 10 cent fully imputed dividend is something I find quite encouraging.
encouraging to see the re emergence of grocery aisles in WHS these days and prices that are noticeably lower for staples than those of the duopoly
Nice block at 3.20. Someone holding sp there so they can accumulate more at lower price. Or is it my suspicious mind.
I think he's talking about a block of shares mate. Not likely anyone could sell a decent block of cheese or butter for $3.20.
good things take time apparently....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qcILD9OJ2wg
I see impulsive moves yes and the wave pattern is very similar to HLG (see that thread) just started a bit later.
5 waves up and 3 waves down is how that theory works though I know no one here gives it much credence. Its already done the 62% retracement to 3.05 It will be a traders delight at 3.00 (strictly2.95 but the round figure could act as support) if it was to get there (78% retracement) with a stop at 2.85.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/128...t-16-years-ago
Got to be a good time for the warehouse to be getting into groceries. $4 butter there the other day. Unreal.
What a joke Grayson is, desperate fall. If WHS want to go into groceries go open your own supply chains and stop relying on Govt help. Did they need Govt help to open to supply chains out of China, Indonesia? No. Get off your arse Nick and get to work.
but the cheap Coffee & Buttering up on groceries is bound to get the boys & girls rocking in
and probably leaving more fully laden up ;)
The margins mightn't much in some of those grocery lines especially after cutting the 2 grocery competitor's
margins to shreds - but it gets the punters into store looking at other goodies :)
that article sure talked about their failure to succeed last time they tried entering the grocery market.
<gulp>
they probably need to see it as a loss leader as someone suggested already. at least initially, because they will need to invest heavily to create that one shop experience. Without that, its dead in the water
Its different this time. Consumers are livid with being fleeced by normal supermarkets. Walmart doing well using the same strategy at present.
Percy's race through the supermarket check outs.
1st....Pak n Save.
2nd ..New World
3rd ..Countdown...slow.
4th.. Warehouse....Too few checkouts open so have to use self serve.,which I do not like doing.Not in the hunt,yet.
A very good point. Walmart has relatively few grocery lines concentrating on the everyday essentials, mostly non-perishable - usually a token gesture of fresh fruit and veg - with most food being packets/cans/frozen.
WHS would be wise to copy this model (and it looks so far like this is the plan)
Best they sort their supply chain and start chatting to green groceries and Meat Companies and all the multi nationals that sell to supermarket chains etc.. Then the huge cost to refit stores etc...Fridge/Freezes/Ovens etc are not cheap. I wonder if Grayson will go ask Jacinda for some money to do it.
Beagle are you prepared for the hard slog ahead as this is capital intensive and we all no how you hate seeing your dividends reduce.
Agree that they look to be pursuing the Walmart setup to start with, which will mean just some basics in the “fresh” isle, with an easy supply chain setup for adding a frozen section (given the long shelf life of frozen goods).
I think they should get inventive and try to setup a joint supply chain with others. Eg they could partner with Moore Wilson’s in wellington/lower north island region (Moore Wilson’s have 3 wellington supermarkets & 1 in masterton). Try and find other similar operators in each region and roll up the efforts into a national supply chain.
I think its going to be a gradual evolutionarily process dependent upon how much assistance they get to fight the current cartel.
LOL Kill is such an emotive word. WHS been around for 40 years.
You're getting a long way ahead of yourself. They haven;t even said they're going into fresh produce.
I envisage an expansion of pantry goods and a new frozen goods section within existing floor space. If its done gradually and done right it will bring a lot more customers into their stores and be eps accretive. I don't think Nick wants to see his $4.10 shares he bought off me disappear down the gurgler do you...
Well every time I go to the supermarket I buy fruit,veges,etc.
I no longer go elsewhere for them.
Get everything ,one stop shopping.
I go to the supermarket once or twice a week, and visit the Warehouse about once every month or two,or three.
And that visit is usually for a specific item.
A lot of people I know buy their fresh fruit and produce from their local fruit and vege store which are generally a lot cheaper than the supermarket cartel.
If WHS can expand their range of pantry and frozen goods significantly and their prices are at a material discount to the supermarkets then I think the WHS target demographic will be visiting their local WHS store more often. As their messaging clearly says these days,
The Warehouse, where everyone gets a bargain.
I think for the “well off” - just buying everything from the supermarket without even looking at the price on the receipt is normal behavior. I think that description probably applies to many people on this forum who would be considered “well off”. However for those not “well off”, which covers a large amount of the middle class, shopping around at different places for things is fairly common to maximize their limited budget. This is why places like the mad butcher and the local fruit & veg shop exist.
No longer any local fruit and vege shops in our area.
Closest is a Sunday Farmers Market, which seems to do well selling mainly organic produce.
However their sales would be a drop in the ocean compared to our local supermarkets'.
Pantry produce is not high margin,needs huge volume to be profitable.
Good fruit and vege shop on the way to the supermarket so no driving deviation is needed for us !
Like I said earlier, I think WHS will take an "evolutionary" approach to its expansion in this area as opposed to a revolutionary one.
I feel content that the huge dividends, (next one will hit my account this afternoon, you beauty !!) are safe.
Can you name me a single other stock listed on the NZX where I can get a reliable and consistent 10.8% gross forecast yield ?
Look no further than Silver Fern Farms CoOp on Unlisted.
https://usx.co.nz/uploads/paperclip/...pdf?1648677883
.NB.SFF are a huge part of NZ export group,earning valuable overseas funds to be used by large importers such as WHS.
ps.As you would expect I back earners rather than spenders..lol.
I edited that post to where else on the NZX do you get a return like that ?
Its on the "Wild West" unlisted market and doesn't have a stellar track record of consistent dividends.
As the old saying goes, One Swallow does not a summer make.
Its a bit like saying STU might have a superior dividend yield. It might in a peak cyclical period but when you look at the track record over the last 5-10 years it doesn't have the reliability to count as a reliable high yield retirement income stock.
As stated previously, when assessing the virtues of a yield investment I look at the long term track record going back at least a decade to see if its sustainable going forward and likely to be highly reliable right across various business cycles.
WHS has a fabulous long term track record going back more than 20 years. HGH also has a fabulous long term track record and their dividends consistently grow. These are two fine examples of high yield stocks that people can depend upon for strong retirement income. HLG another fine example albeit now with lack of imputation credits taking the gloss off it.
Meat companies have been cyclical since Adam was a boy. All good in good times but...
Each to their own way of doing things.
Percy - I heard you were the 'modest' one on this forum lol
PAZ have incredible products which being mostly exported add to NZ's overseas earnings.
Demand has out stripped their production capabilities.
To meet demand for existing and new products ,two new state of the art factories are being built.
This will see PAZ being one of the most exciting listed companies in NZ.
AS people throug out the world grow more concerned with where,and how products are produced, PAZ are well placed in this huge growth sector.
ps.You are not keeping up with NZ meat companies.You could start by reading SFF annual report.
https://usx.co.nz/uploads/paperclip/...pdf?1650403414