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Wow, gold is very strong, any dip is very shallow & it just keeps trucking higher. Yep $1307/08 is a key area, 200 DMA. Also see $1320 & then $1360 as resistance above that. The way gold is moving I'm wondering if I should just throw the technical out the window as gold appears to have a momentum of its own at the moment. Anyone following most of the bank's predictions for the last 6 months or so will be scratching their heads.
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Yeah mine to. The good thing is that if perhaps gold does fail $1307 area & pulls back it now has plenty of room before hitting support of $1275. If it had fell from $1285/90 area I think there is a good chance $125 could have failed. Now I think if it pulls back there is a good chance of that area holding & creating another buy opportunity.
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Onwards and Upwards...Still looking Good
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Thanks Hoop. What's your interpretation of the descending triangle? i.e. what does it typically predict as an outcome?
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Recent Double bottom bring on the break above 1420 ^^^^ been a healthy breather for 2013 going back to higher close Year on Year for another decade
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
moosie_900
$1420? it just barely broke $1300! Easy there tiger, one step at a time!
Yes very early call but thats what we need to see Gold back on track I believe it will happen this year..rather than the current trading range
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Daytr
Thanks Hoop. What's your interpretation of the descending triangle? i.e. what does it typically predict as an outcome?
I think it has to be classed as a symmetrical shape the way I drew it, Daytr...It can be drawn with a minor bottom line that resembles a descending triangle a little...Be interesting to see what a pattern generator would throw up....Its a pain when somethings ain't black or white in real life ...eh
The yellow pattern is the fuzzy definition between triangle and a wedge,,strictly speaking I probably should be calling this a falling wedge as the apex is down pointing.. but the time period is too long to call it a typical wedge....but the pattern shape is far more important and it has got that falling wedge shape ..that upward breakout situated well before the apex shows a good possibility that this breakout is a trend reversal and (falling wedge pattern within the guidelines) has a 60% chance now of reaching 1650 ( height of the falling wedge top formation) (Bulkowski).
Technically speaking the Pink triangle is a "weak" triangle pattern as it doesn't satisfy the triangle pattern guidelines** ...even though the bottom line is well and truly a confirmed line it has only one touch within its designated confirmed triangle area... so can't apply the % historic bullish outcomes associated with those guideline asymmetrical patterns ..
** to much "air" (area between top & bottom touches) inside the "triangle" area...and..not enough bottom touches (need min of 2)..
Many articles has these types of diagrams and describe them as symmetrical triangles ..this one by me is no different.
But.... I had to call it something..it looks like a symmetrical triangle especially after I draw the top reversal line in..so I called it a "triangle"
.....maybe calling it an area within two major converging trend lines, one a bull line the other a bear line... would've been more technically correct
Anyway there's a bull/bear battle going on and as these 2 trend lines come towards their definite outcome, only one line will survive the other will be broken...
So who will be the winner???... going back to the triangles wedges whatever, the breakout outcome of the yellow falling wedge suggests the probability will favour the bull line (the long term primary up trend line) as the winner...therefore that winner will be another confirmation of the trend reversal
phew!!!.... that was a long winded explanation....serves me right for being lazy and calling everything triangles to start with...eh?
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Much appreciated & great post Hoops.
I follow technicals as most of the market trades that way, but its never been a strength of mine.
If I combine with what you suggest & what I see as the fundamental picture, i.e. physical demand, it does make me very bullish over time.
However nothing goes up or down in a straight line.
I do like the ring of $1650 which was a very big number on the way down. Really the straw that broke the camel's back.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
moosie_900
$1420? it just barely broke $1300! Easy there tiger, one step at a time!
1320^^^^ toot toot
So many shorters will be getting wiped out of late ...can see now why the likes of JP Morgan were
Closing out their shorts positions and taking on major longs back in the low 1200s yet telling the market gold would head lower likely the same for many of the major bullion banks tell the market one thing but do the dead opposite
the largest gold producer on the planet, Barrick just released its Q4 2013 results showing “All-in costs” for mining gold at $1,317 an ounce....
China breaks gold import record for Jan up 43% to 247 tons more than the month global gold production
Skol where's you ETF update LOL
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Yep that $1307/08 area proved big but eclipsed on first attempt. There must have been quite a few stops there or long positions being out on as it rocketed to $1320 & closing on or around the highs. Undeniably strong performance in POG since the start of the year.
Now, will Goldman's make a backflip? They have been very strong on their call for gold to go to $1000. If they do backflip then I think that will be the 3rd time in about 6 months. They will have lost all direction one would have thought! Nice weekend all!