Originally Posted by
pierre
I was surprised too.
The company has issued three updated guidance reports over the past 2 months (4 February, 16 March & 9 April). The revenue projections increased from $9.4m in Feb to $10.6m on 9 April. Interestingly, almost all of that forecast revenue gain (+$1.2m) has translated through to increased EBITDA (+$1.1m). They might have canned a few expenses over the past few months, but the figures seem to indicate either BLT was undercooking their initial profit forecast or they must have some pretty healthy margins. (A bit of both I suspect.)
At 9c the company is valued at $100m and +/-$2m profit doesn't exactly justify that SP. The PE at around 60 suggests there's a huge amount of growth already baked in.
Some of the big questions in my mind are:
a) will the "immunity demand" that is driving growth continue and be sustainable post-Covid?
b) will an investment in more marketing further increase sales?
c) can the company capitalise on this opportunity to expand into new markets? China has been talked about in the past but doesn't appear to be have eventuated. Getting traction there would be a game changer.
d) do they have production capacity (or can quickly develop it) to maximise the current opportunities?
e) what will the profit be if sales increase to say $20m for FY21?
What will the SP be at the end of the year? Depends on the answers to the questions above - and probably some others too.
I'm not at all sure an SP with a 9 in it is justified right now. I'm reserving judgement though until we get the EOFY report in May - unless there's another market update prior to then.
Meantime I am certainly enjoying the roller coaster ride and the renewed interest in BLT (15 million shares changed hands today - none of them were mine though!)