Good on Mr Carter in rolling over his $30,000 worth of bonds
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Good on Mr Carter in rolling over his $30,000 worth of bonds
Don't worry about USA election, it will be just like brexit, maybe last a day or two. Just look forward to 10c div and maybe 10c or 20c sp gain before then. 16 weeks approx. to ex div, and maybe 10c to 30c sp gain sounds good to me.
It depends ... if Hillary comes in, you are right - it will be business as usual and the markets will start worrying about something else (like e.g. the next Fed interest hike ...).
However - if Trump comes in (and yes, BREXIT might be a good example) - how do you think the markets are going to react when the leading world currency suddenly drops by 10 to 20 percent?
Sure - the world economy can probably deal with a Brexiting UK (representing prior to BREXIT 3.5% of world's GDP, now more like 3%), but a USA-EXIT (representing 25% of world GDP) from the world economy? Different order of magnitudes.
If Trump wins we can expect a long and deep world economical crisis ... no point in worrying about days or months - this will be more like a decade or so (and a replacement for the thin skinned bully) until the world might start to recover from that.
And looking at AIR - how many Chinese tourists do you think will still come to New Zealand when a trade war between China and Russia (on one side) and the US (and probably some of its Western allies) is waging? How many less business trips will we need into a country which puts lots of duties on our products?
Make no mistake - if this election goes the wrong way, we all will feel it - for a long time to come.
Hilliary Clinton at $1.36 on Centrebet in Australia so she's NO certainty to win, that's for sure. I remember when Team N.Z. had won 8 races in the America's cup and looked like a certainty to win it. The N.Z. TAB had them at $1.01 and we all thought it was a certainty they would win the ninth race and take the America's cup didn't we !...so stranger things have happened in terms of the outside horse winning a two horse race.
If Trump gets in we are basically in unchartered waters and at the least we will have a new era of uncertainty.
That said AIR are a very well managed company with moderate debt so are well positioned to meet any challenges going forward.
In the USA corporations do not control the Government, in the USA corporations are the Government. With that thought in mind I agree with your sentiment see weed, whoever wins(Please not that Trump clown) it won't have a long lasting effect on the share market once the real Government(Banking Cartel) stamps their feet.
Clinton and Trump are just a figure head, just like Reagan, sort of like a show pony. The rest of the pawns will advise/make all the decisions while the ponies fly around being show ponies with 1000s of support staff hopefully on AIR if they ever come to NZ for a ski trip or geyser watch. Life goes on, with people who can't afford to fly, will still fly, like catching a bus. Not like the old days when it was just for the well off. And we will still collect divs:).
Nevertheless he can still do alot of damage---The USA would have major trust issues which is not good for the leading economy
Meanwhile if that happens people will still fly ,but a much bigger % will go with more competitive airlines (unless AIR becomes much more competitive--which they will ,because they will have to --that then affects the balance sheet,and your precious div.) But of course there are all sorts of ''maybes'' involved in that scenario (just like all your predictions):) scary times
This FBI thing reminds me of that race team NZ should have won(with the low wind) but it didnt count because of the time limit (so it would be good for TV in terms of fitting time slots)--They were by no means becalmed
If Hillary loses it will be pretty hard not to point the finger at the FBI---its a real shame Trumps 13yo rape victum lost her nerve to speak out.
Skid, yeah I remember that race very well. Pure frustration... Gents may I respectfully suggest that perhaps we should move any further discussion on Trump to either the off market section where there's a thread on the U.S. election http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...sidential-Race or the black Monday thread in this section to discuss market impact as it sure will be black if Trump wins, (albeit not a Monday)
I wonder if Air would be better off not hedging oil prices at all. They'd have saved a bundle over the last few months.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing though. Who would have precited that a presidential election in the US would potentially have such a significant impact on the markets? Then again, a Clinton win will see markets re-stabilise and things return to a relatively normal state, and if AirNZ had changed their hedging position this could have proven financially more detrimental than maintaining the status quo.
I would expect a business such as an airline, whose forward sales make up a good part of their income, would need to protect their forward costs as much as possible.So hedging would be wise.
It is my understanding that the hedging is calculated with a formula that is dependant on forward bookings.