There is now. you have to wait till 9AM before things appear
Printable View
There is now. you have to wait till 9AM before things appear
and there is an asterisked seller at 145, which means more than $100k worth on sale ...
but as $255k have been bought/sold already, don't suppose it is too scary.
Performing well today, up 5c. All the 'get the divvy and do the bolt' sellers will drop out today, hopefully POO and DOW behave overnight and we'll start to see NZO get re-rated towards where it should be. PRC also up 8c today so far
A timely completion of PRC drilling within the next two-three weeks will be where the fun starts imho.
Oil is solidly above 100. Seems there solid pressure to keep it there - but I cannot see why (I don't believe in Diggers China theory) - the world economy is going to hell in a hand-cart, commodities are off the boil and SE Asia has reduced fuel subsidies.
What gives? Any theories out there?
(Don't tell me it's heating oil)
- Agaricus Campestris
Sorry, I go with the theory that the number of cars on the Beijing roads has just doubled, and the Chinese refineries are no longer looking at a saturated distribution chain. If I was a conspiracy buff, I would suspect that President Cheyney and his mates would try and hold gasoline prices down until the election, but it ain't happening, so there must be some real market pressure.
Mr Market - meet Doctor Depletion
Yes - that could be a driver, still means buyers out there filling demand. It's that demand I just can't put my finger on. A small part of me wonders if the fine supply/demand balance is still out there - and the current economic slump is not masking a real fuel shortage. Or could be just market gyration - equities are all over the place - so why not oil.
(Actually, I havn't the first clue anymore about where oil is going).
Trouble is - with NZOs big war chest, it would be nice to have a respite from the price frenzy of late - a bit of calm water to quietly purchase (whatever) at reasonable prices.
I am with you on oil prices. Right now i wouldnt have a clue if it goes to $200 or colapses to $15.
Here is why. Problems with oil producing nations are not the most stable. Demand is likely to stay strong esecially in China and other emerging markets. Also if overall market sentiment finds itself, stabilizes and grows then so will overall commodities. So to if any wars breakout in Iran, Russia etc
Here is why oil and other commodites could crash. If sharemarkets dont recover from the credit crunch the the simple bu product will be a 1930 like crash. Almost all commodoties will suffer the same fate as demand for energy resources will deminish and an oversupply will occur.
That is how i see it and since noone knows the future the guess is anybodies at this stage.
discl. hold
a simple observation i have, is that from the people i know, they are driving more again.
which one could expolate to that most people a driving more............
end result....... more fuel consumption.
any one else drivng more?
I like to look up IEA's charts occasionally to get a feel for whats going on...
USA is certainly suffering from a little demand destruction.
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3185/...97dd9a79_o.gif
You can also see heaps of other countries too...however, some arent available due to lack of information.
This is for total fuel products...not sure how the number on the correlates, but just an example of whats available.
You can check for diesel, gasoline, heating etc...
NZ and Australia have had increasing demand over the period :)
Cant test diggers 'concept' as China doesnt have the full sets of data...
I don't think that the much-hyped "demand-destruction" will amount to much at all -
there is just no infrastructure in place to substitute for commuting by private vehicle in the near term.
Any alternatives will take decades to develop - by then we should be well past Hubbard's Peak and
it should be in clear view of everyone.
I've just been reading an article on MA Strategies in a Down Market. It pretty much plainly states that a well thought out acquisition strategy in a down market seperates the men from the boys. And that it leads to the long term creation of shareholder value.
I'll be very unhappy if NZO sit on my pile of cash, under the pretence of protecting the balance sheet. Especially while there are some absolute bargins out there.
Hmm - upside_mop source is interesting. Will delve into more charts from IEA - and contemplate. (so surprising USA figures nose dived as early as Jan 08) Still poses more questions than answers.
And Then Nita has the point avout unstable oil countries - True - another parameter of uncertainty.
Conclusion: 'Interesting' times ahead.
(Therefore I'm holding onto NZO - can't think of a better idea at the moment).
WTI $114.55 (up $10ish)
WTF just happened??
Nymex Crude Future 128.10 23.55 22.52 14:24
half an hour ago it was $113.88
Did all the oil dry up overnight?
McDunk - is this your doing ?
Oil spikes to $115 on banking rescue plan
http://www.upstreamonline.com/incomi...icle163637.eceQuote:
Oil rose more than 10% to $115, continuing a rally sparked by the US' rescue plan for its financial sector.
Sweeping government measures to rescue the financial system and restore confidence in shaky markets spurred gains across markets on Friday, when oil rose almost 7% to cap its biggest three-day rally in a decade.
US crude for October delivery rose $11.38 or 10.9% to to 115.93, a barrel by 1740 GMT -- the biggest gain since 22 June 1998.
London Brent crude traded up $6.11 to $105.72.
"The key driver continues to be the US rescue package which has changed the sentiment in the oil market," said Bank of Ireland analyst Paul Harris.
Oil has tumbled from record highs over $147 a barrel in mid-July, weighed down by growing evidence that high energy costs and economic woes were undercutting global fuel demand, said Reuters.
Further pressure came last week as financial sector turmoil sent investors out of commodities and into safer havens, sending oil to a seven-month low of $90.51 a barrel.
The slow recovery of the US oil sector after Hurricane Ike also supported prices, after causing the biggest disruption to the nation's energy supplies since 2006.
Nearly 90% of oil production in the US Gulf of Mexico, home to a quarter of all US oil output, remains shut along with seven refineries.
Oil prices were also supported by news China increased crude imports 11.54% in August from a year earlier, recovering from a steep July fall, the General Administration of Customs said on Friday, confirming earlier data.
"The Chinese import news is a sign of recovery, and a good indication that oil prices could get back up again." said Christopher Bellew of Bache Financial.
Industry sources also said that top oil exporter Saudi Arabia has trimmed oil supplies to international majors and US refiners since the start of September.
However, gains were capped by news that Nigeria's main militant group had begun a unilateral ceasefire yesterday after a week of clashes with the military and attacks on oil installations which cut output in Africa's top producer.
sentiment has changed-the short sellers have been heavily punished ,saudi may cut back on oil ,slow recovery from Ike, china , nigeria etc
Not to mention the insatiable demand for oil ,finite resource, fall in us dollar
-I feel we may still see the $2 nzo share by xmas and $3 next year !
WTI futs now at $120, just going crazy! Will be an interesting day for NZO today...
OIL will get to $200 a barrel in 2009 so you lot had better sharpen up and dont get caught high and dry on the spike up, followed by the crash down. Macdunk
And I missed it but they hit $130 for a time, got volatility??!
Some background on bloomberg:
Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil climbed more than $25 a barrel, the biggest gain ever, as the dollar weakened the most against the euro since January 2001, boosting the appeal of commodities as a hedge.
The October contract, which expires today, rose almost $12 more than the contract for November delivery, as traders rushed to close positions. Oil, gold, corn and other commodities climbed as the dollar dropped on concern that a U.S. proposal to buy $700 billion of troubled assets from financial firms will deepen the budget deficit.
``This looks like a squeeze play,'' said Phil Flynn, senior trader at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. ``All of the contracts are up, but nothing like October. This is the last day of trading and someone is scrambling to guarantee supply.''
Crude oil for October delivery rose $18.05, or 17 percent, to $122.60 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures climbed as much as $25.45 to $130 a barrel, the highest since July 22. The more- active November contract rose $6.11, or 6 percent, to $108.86 a barrel.
``It's a very small pool playing in this market right now, and that's why you're seeing those massive differentials'' between the October and November contracts, said David Kirsch, an energy markets analyst at PFC Energy in Washington. ``Somebody did place a wrong bet and is trying to cover that position. That's why you've got that yawning gap and a normal gap between the November and December contracts.''
I use CNN to get the Dow and oil in real time.
http://money.cnn.com/?cnn=yes
Bermuda, I see on CNN that your mate Matt Simmons foresees $500 oil!
http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/15/news...ion=2008092213
As reported by AP
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10533640
This recent action will seriously add some $$ to NZO's bottom line... Any predictions of SP movement today (or this week)?
With the price of oil up $16 barrel overnight I'd say we are in for a stellar day.
WTI Crude up to $1.20 a barrel!
Go NZO! :D
Be careful - this headline-grabbing price action overnight in oil was on the closing of the October contract and is mostly to do with someone needing to cover a position urgently. The contract you should actually be watching is the current front-end one, i.e. the November contract. This closed at $109 - still a good gain and potential sign of further upmove to come this week.
[QUOTE=Drone;224628]And I missed it but they hit $130 for a time, got volatility??!
Some background on bloomberg:
Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil climbed more than $25 a barrel, the biggest gain ever, as the dollar weakened the most against the euro since January 2001, boosting the appeal of commodities as a hedge.
The October contract, which expires today, rose almost $12 more than the contract for November delivery, as traders rushed to close positions. Oil, gold, corn and other commodities climbed as the dollar dropped on concern that a U.S. proposal to buy $700 billion of troubled assets from financial firms will deepen the budget deficit.
``This looks like a squeeze play,'' said Phil Flynn, senior trader at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. ``All of the contracts are up, but nothing like October. This is the last day of trading and someone is scrambling to guarantee supply.''
New Post
Mostly it is the weakness in the $US but when oil headed down recently a whole lot of people sold out of their contracts thinking it was going to go back to $US75. And now they have had to bid like crazy to square their books.
Apparently Matt Simmonds has been on CNN forecasting $US500. Must see that.
NZO.... about to do a lot of catching up.
Welcome to the real world . Dont worry, it will be back to $110 tomorrow . But it will go higher.
Oil, a Precious Finite Resource.
Here ya go big B
Quote:
OIL PEAK IS WITH US.
GOLD TO GO THROUGH THE ROOF
Here comes $500 oil
If Matt Simmons is right, the recent drop in crude prices is an illusion - and oil could be headed for the stratosphere. He's just hoping we can prevent civilization from imploding.
By Brian O'Keefe, senior editor
Last Updated: September 22, 2008: 10:01 AM EDT
Matt Simmons argues that Saudi Arabia's oil supplies are much more limited than everyone thinks.
(Fortune Magazine) -- Matt Simmons is as perplexed as anyone that it has fallen to him to take on OPEC, Exxon, the Saudis, and all the other misguided defenders of conventional wisdom in the oil patch. Why should one investment banker with a penchant for research be required to point out what he regards as the obvious - that from here on out, oil supplies can't meet demand, and if we don't act soon to solve this crisis, World War III could be looming?
Why should a man who scorns most environmentalists have to argue that locally grown produce and wind power are the way of the future? Why should a lifelong Republican need to be the one to point out that his party's new mantra - "Drill, baby, drill!" - won't really fix anything and that his party's presidential candidate is clueless about energy? That the spike in oil prices earlier this year wasn't a temporary market anomaly and the recent retreat in prices is just a misleading calm before a calamitous storm? That we're headed toward $500-a-barrel oil?
"I find it ironic that here we have the biggest industry on earth, and I'm one of the few people to figure out that we have a major problem," he says, in his confident if not quite brash way. "And I did it all in my spare time. How stupid and tragic is that? I shouldn't be one of the only folks that actually has a handful of ideas of how we can keep from blowing each other up and get through this."
Indeed, Simmons isn't the obvious candidate to be the bearer of bad news about oil. He's spent his career working in the business, has lived in Houston for decades, and is such an industry insider that he helped edit the Bush campaign's comprehensive energy plan in the 2000 election - the document that was ultimately more or less rubber-stamped by Vice President Dick Cheney's infamous secret Energy Task Force. Over the past 35 years, his boutique investment bank, Simmons & Co., has helped finance and shape much of the country's existing oil-services business. With profits gushing, you might expect him to be celebrating.
Not to mention that the 65-year-old banker doesn't have the personality of a prophet of doom. He has a puckish wit, a relentlessly cheerful and enthusiastic demeanor, and the appearance of a rosy-cheeked cherub in a navy blazer. He routinely refers - in earnest - to his daily experiences as "tremendous fun." His closest business associates have a hard time recalling him ever showing anger. But when it comes to oil and gas, his message is downright scary.
An unlikely maverick
Simmons was transformed overnight from an influential industry expert to an A-list pundit by the publication in 2005 of his book "Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy," a fairly technical read which argues that Saudi Arabia's oil supplies are much more limited than everyone thinks.
Since then he has moved to the forefront of the peak-oil movement - a once fringe but now growing contingent of oil industry veterans, independent consultants, investors, and academics who believe that world oil production is at or near an inflection point, after which it will fall inexorably and fail to meet projected future demands. According to Simmons, we have already passed that peak. And while we're not going to run out of it anytime soon, the era of easy oil is over, and the world is about to enter a period of convulsive change. (Hint: Learn to garden, and buy some comfortable walking shoes.)
The soaring price of crude - it has risen from below $20 a barrel in 2002 to as high as $147 earlier this year - has helped thrust Simmons further into the spotlight. He was one of the main voices, for instance, in the recent oil-shock documentary "Crude Awakening," and his book has now sold more than 100,000 copies. His willingness to make bold predictions about how high crude may go has made him an A-list guest for cable TV news programs and a go-to source for newspaper reporters covering oil and gas. In 2005, when oil was $58 a barrel, he predicted it would be at or above $100 within a few years. Now he sees it climbing to $200, $300, or higher. "There really is no roof on oil prices at this point," he says.
Being so outspoken, of course, invites criticism, and Simmons has endured plenty. But he has also won a lot of high-profile admirers. "Like most people who ignore conventional wisdom, he was scoffed at, ridiculed, and denied," says commodities guru Jim Rogers. "And now, of course, people are starting to say, 'Oh, well, I thought of that.'" Billionaire oil and gas investors Richard Rainwater and Boone Pickens both heap praise on Simmons's analytical abilities. Maine's Senator Susan Collins, a Republican who recently began consulting with Simmons on energy issues, says, "I think he's issuing a clarion call that policymakers need to listen to."
In his own upbeat way, he despairs about what is to come. As the price of oil has fallen this summer (to $108 at press time), Simmons has watched in dismay as complacency has returned and the champions of do-nothingism have popped out of the woodwork to say I told you so. Not that it's lessened his conviction about the road ahead. "I do think there are a growing number of people who are getting it," he says. "But I guess it just reminds me that as a society, we don't have the ability to actually come to grips with a crisis until it's hit us in the face. I am discouraged enough now to think that we're going to have to have a really nasty shock before we wake people up."
Has peak oil peaked?
On a Thursday morning at the end of July, Simmons is sitting in a wicker chair on the back porch of his six-bedroom summer home on the coast of Maine, waiting to do a live television spot on CNBC. Sun glints off Penobscot Bay below him. In the distance, sailboats glide in and out of Camden Harbor. It's the kind of scene that has captivated him since his Harvard days in the 1960s, when he started coming up here on weekends. Wearing a blue-and-white-checked shirt, cream-colored pants, and tasseled loafers, Simmons chats with Ellen, his wife, and Emma, one of their five daughters. His earpiece is chattering as CNBC anchor Melissa Francis teases his upcoming segment.
At the moment, the price of oil is hovering around $124 a barrel, and CNBC wants him to interpret why crude is suddenly tumbling. "Has peak oil peaked? I guess that's our topic," he reports to everyone within earshot, before the shot goes live.
It was on this same porch five years ago that Simmons had the insight that convinced him that the oil age had passed its zenith. During a trip to Saudi Arabia in February 2003 with his friend Herbert Hunt (yes, the son of H.L. Hunt who, with his brother Bunker, almost cornered the silver market in 1980), Simmons had become suspicious of the Saudis' claims about the vastness of their oil supply. In his four decades of working in the oil and gas industry, everyone he had ever talked to had taken it as gospel that the Saudis had enough oil to bail the world out when other supplies ran short. If that wasn't true, Simmons believed, the era of cheap oil was over. Demand for crude was on the rise worldwide, and supplies were getting tighter all the time. If the Saudis were pushing up against the limits of their oil production, the world needed to know.
In his typically analytical fashion, Simmons went hunting for data. He found it in the form of hundreds of technical papers submitted by Saudi oil geologists to the Society of Petroleum Engineers over the past 50 years. Simmons spent the month of August 2003 sitting on his porch in Maine and grinding his way through the minutiae of technical accounts of, for instance, reservoir pressure and water-cut percentages, trying to piece together the challenges that the Saudi geologists had encountered in managing their precious oilfields. In the end, his conclusion was clear. "I finished reading the last paper on a Sunday afternoon," says Simmons, "and I sat back and I thought, Holy crap, this is unbelievable. I've just discovered the biggest energy illusion ever in the world. We're in big trouble. I'm going to write a book."
And so he did. But writing the book didn't exhaust his passion. Today he is more convinced than ever that we've reached peak oil. If he's right, current world oil production- 86 million barrels a day- is about as high as we're going to go.
Of course, if demand goes up but supply doesn't, prices are apt to go through the roof. And unlike global oil production, global oil demand doesn't appear to be anywhere near a peak. Both the U.S. government's Energy Information Association and the independent International Energy Agency, based in Paris, estimate that worldwide demand will be more than 115 million barrels a day by 2030.
Interesting stuff this morning...$109.37 as it stands on bloomberg should break Colin Twigg channel downtrend.
Do you guy think Matt Simmons is being a little unrealistic?
He's got great analytical skills and all, but I believe its a little hard to measure oil in 'cup' quantities and saying its still cheap if you load every car up with 6 people...because if you loaded up every car with 6 people, peak oil would not be a problem for a while yet....it just isnt practical is it? They say roughly every $1 increase in crude will increase prices at the pump 1 cent in NZ...$500 = ~$6 litre...how long this relationship holds I dont know, someone may like to enlighten us with a proper formula.
There wouldnt be many in NZ driving at all at those prices, countries are different with fuel taxes etc, so there would have to be changes...unless GSB comes in trumps :D
Just my thinking, at least in the short term..it would only be a spike, as it couldnt be sustainable in the current economic enviroment (but could be possible is we had mega world wide inflation...)
Thanks Trackers,
As you know I have met him. He has no ego. Just a determination to inform the world of an impending crisis. A huge impending crisis. If readers havent read the book , please get hold of it. Then you will understand.
There is a huge threat of world war. Most previous wars have been about oil. The Chinese are well on their way to securing an increasing share...and with/from some of America's enemies.
America is totally stuffed. Bush and Greenspan saw to that. They should have listened to Matt instead of trying to look good. Well they have gone and mortgaged America at a time when they import about 63% of their oil at ever higher prices. On the other hand the Chinese have been planning for this for years. And the Chinese are meticulous Planners.
You just have to read the news. Have a look at what Venezuela is doing...new naval exercises.
Anyway..it is high time we all read that book and got cracking developing alternatives.
OIL, A PRECIOUS FINITE RESOURCE.
Alternatives -
Thin film solar such as that produced by Nanosolar.
Ultra capacitors e.g. produced by EEStore.
The issue is whether volume production can be ramped up to reach the $USD1 per watt nirvana before the whole jamboree falls apart and Digger & MaCDunk are proved to be correct.
Profit taking at this share price? Depressing. Things should improve as the divvie gets further in the rear-view and the POO consolidates above $100
The market is awash with NZO shares. Supply was put way out of synch with demand. NZOODs have proven to be very expensive for NZO shareholders to date. The market has yet to see how, or if, that loss might be recovered.
There is likely to be some weakness in the share price ahead until the company provides some justification for the damage done. The AGM might be the earliest we can expect anything positive. This is a time for patience.
Very good point with regards to the ods. I hope like heck that TR doesnt spring OE's (back by popular demand) onto the shareholders. This is not a time to create more shares and we dont need any capital raising. Perhaps in 6 months time nzo may look for a share buyback but i dont think now is the right time.
Hi Unicorn ,
Hopefully we might hear of an acquisition before the AGM
Also we should be getting a mini-annual report soon plus voting papers for directors
Your point about the share price being depressed by in part the option conversion is valid and I feel might have been prevented by having an experienced shareholder on board .
Below is part of an e-mail from Chris-
We will be sending out a Shareholder Review at the end of September -
this is like a mini-Annual Report, without the full financial
statements. At the same time, we will be asking all shareholders whether
they want to receive the full Annual Report, or whether they are just
happy to view it on our website.
Those who request the full Annual Report will be sent it in October.
Regards
Unicorn,
Is not cash King in troubled times .......
There could be heaps of oil assets looking for buyers at knock down prices .....
NZOG could make some very good strategic purchases ..... but needs to get timing right.
If we are heading into a full blown recession then NZOG should keep its powder dry untill the global economy hits the bottom at which time oil prices and oil assets will be at their lowest.
For the time being methinks NZOG shold be playing a waiting game to see how the US shambles unfolds.
And with NZOG's strong cash flows, Pike coal on the way plus Kupe coming into view, the share price looks likely to perform well against comparison with other shares and asset classes.
Z
.
Unicorn I think you live in a world of mythology and dreams. NZO shares are trading at half to one million a day. Less than 0.25% of shares issued, now that is hardly "awash". I know that you have brilliant inside info on such grandess but really this is an exageration on your part. "Awash", well I suppose if buyers are rare then someone wanting to sell 10,000 shares would consider the the sell side "awash". Barely liquid I say.
Do you refer to the number of sellers or the number of shares? I rarely find many more than one buyer and one seller - sometimes I assume they are the same broker. Now why would I think that? perhaps they are acting for the marketmaker..
Use some of your obvious insight and imagination and detective powers to identify who is selling. Is it shorting activity sponsored by one of our major shareholders lending their voting powers for a teensy unimportant interlude? Who cares, it is only temporary, major holders have to preserve their buck and the rest of you stupid shareholders in this fantastic company can sit wondering. By the way if you are determined to sell, or on the bones of your ass, you are likely the only loser in the transaction at this time.
Awash!!! Bahhh humbug BS Uni!!
I think "awash" is a fair description. All the new shares do is increase PE ratio, decrease the dividend yield, and substantially lessen shareholders leverage to any future discovery. Anyway, it's history now and we have to trust the board/management to spend the money wisely. I think the AWE/ARC takeover/merger was a good example of how to go about creating value in the current market.
The last few posts including mine have talked about the negative impact of the extra 32% (close to it) od shares that have come on stream. Among that there is a hige positive. Adding $200m to the coffers has put this comnpany ihn a strong position for aquisitions or at the very least, a very strong balance sheet. In an environment where credit will become harder to come by, nzo can now pull the strings to its on tune. bit of a double edge sword and i am not complaining at this stage.
Accumulating
me too.....
released today
cant access it yet myself
anybody read it-?anything new
Right you are, annual report is on the site now. The Shareholder Review is available off stocknessmonster:
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=306029
There has been some impressive volume going through at $1.40 today - a lot of decent size transactions too (buyers and sellers for tranches of 25,000-100,000 shares, not just a few 1,000's at a time like we've been seeing a lot of the last few weeks).
So... good solid accumulation at this level... although you gotta wonder - who is selling?
The glass is half full or the glass is half empty who is right who is wrong. Who is buying who is selling?. The people buying think the share is going to rise the people selling think the market might crash. The fundamentals say its a buy the markets say it could crash. The share price in the end will be ruled by the market which if it crashes will make the sellers the smart people. I think the markets will crash dragging NZO share price down to a lower level. Then i also think the price of oil will reach $200 a barrel in 2009 crashing the market which will make it very interesting to see if NZO shares follow the market or the price of oil. Right now its a fifty fifty bet who are the smart people the buyers or the sellers. Macdunk
The Report: To me, the report shows Pike as under valued since the shares are technically very tradable asset. The oil/gas reserves not booked at all - still not treated as stock on hand or WIP - - does anyone know if the new accounting rules will change that after Jan 09? Profit per share for 09 looks to be around 20c - - 10c div on cards (?).
Still very reticent to give any hints on developments/acquisitions.
All very boring really.
Oh - by the way - an oil engineer would not say that the glass is half full or half empty - simply that the glass has been designed twice as big as needed.
Oil goes to $200 - NZO shareprice crashes :confused:(I suppose if you repeat it often enough some people may begin believing it)
Seriously Macdunk, why don't you declare the bear market over and redeploy your funds. I hear there are a lot of investors waiting on the sidelines until you give the green light to "go in and scrape up the road kill" :D
As for me, I went long crude oil again last night - wish me luck
NITA, Get it right please if you want to quote me. I said the market would downtrend leading to a crash after the olympics. I also said China would pull the rug out from under the Yank economy by manipulating the price of oil which would reach $200 a barrel. I did say that would happen in the northern winter when china reved up its production. I also said that i got out the market simply because thats what i firmly beleaved. i think China might only stand aside and watch the yank economy go under with very little assistance as they seem to be doing it all by themselves. I did tell you to invest in a stop loss as well if you remember. Macdunk
I'd buy that it could go to 200 or higher on the up-side.
On the down-side however atm the highest PRODUCTION costs are around 80$,
so prices can not drop far below that without reducing supply considerably.
There is not that much discretionary petrol use even in the developed world (I'd guess 20% max) and probably not much at all in the developing world. So I don't expect demand to drop off much, even with a serious
recession. People's lifestyles are just too dependent on oil now that they can change in a hurry.
So, I don't know where you get 10$ from.
Yes, TUI opex is below USD10, excluding the capital costs.
That is exceptionally cheap, almost as good as Saudi production.
The 80 USD are the marginal production costs of the most expensive
oil currently brought to market, read it in some dutch energy thinktank report.
Somewhere else I saw 75 USD, so a similar figure. It might relate to the production
cost of oil from the Canadian tar sands, but I am not sure of this. From memory,
that oil production is very energy intensive, using natural gas to get the oil out.
Without adding to the confusion, my point was largely aimed at Maccas changing the goal post backwards and forwards.
Yes tui's production costs are less than $10 per barrel. I have heard that *80 is some sort of benchmark that is being used. I guess this is manly for offshore drilling and an ever increasing tightening of oil rig supply. If i am not mistaken, tui jv partners secured the oil rig for for around $100k per day (approx $3 per barrel at present levels). Only 12 months later i bleive the costs escalted to around $500k per day operating costs. In my view we got it very cheap and timed extremely well. More cudos to AWE and the jv partners.
Onshore drilling costs will be much lower and drilling in the southern basin, oil would probably need to be around $200 per barrel or more to make it interesting for the big daddies of the oil business.
Get back to the possted ability of a cloapse in oil prices (as i alluded to a possible $10 per barrel), i beleive that the market will have to go through similar situation as the great depression of the 1930's As i have also pointed out, right now i have no idea short term what will happen with oil prices. I think this will be largely played out on wall street and the white house short term.
ps. any idea at what are the cost of securing the oil rig for the option years from 2015 to 2022. I strongly suspect it will be at least 5 times what they are paying now. It may be available somewhere but i havent come across it. Perhaps Chris could explain.Whatever it is there will come a ppoint where it doesnt become commercially viable to suck out any more of tui. hopefully however that is closer to 2022 than 2015
Found the link to the report I mentioned. You can download it from this summary page: http://www.clingendael.nl/ciep/publi...&&type=summary
NZO in the doldrums with no upcoming action and ex-dividend. Perhaps when PRC hits the coal face there might be a spike or, will it be a case of buy the story and sell the fact.:confused:
Bring back buck...
and Bring back Digger...
:cool:
.^sc
Hi all.
Looks like if i am to ever get back it will be the back door.So if you rewrite reggid backwards you get the same thing. Been up to too many things to do anything more than highlight each event.
Moved to my new house and got cut off internet by Telecom as they became aware i was going over to Vodafone.Then waited 6 weeks for Farmside to connect me up by satellite.It had 4 failures over 2 weeks using Asian equipment.Now working excellent using German gear,so 1 problem behind me.Now can not relog back in as Digger and can not get ahold of Vince to find out why.
To be cont.
Put my name down for director with two supporting seconders.Talked with DS and Paul foley on 16th about responabilities of director which from other companies i knew anyways but the CEO is required to take each nomination cersiously and they did that.Today i emailed them saying after some thought that my name was to be pulled from nomination.Sorry about that focks as for once you could have had a real vote now it's back to sleep.
Pulled my name for two reasons. First i have many other commitments and my large holding in the company requires that i do everything possible to have the board function as well as possible including getting out of the road.Also a director does not lend itself to a ongoing conversation with other shareholders as i wish.There is a gap though now between what is happening and what should be happening.Currently info is flowing only one way in the form of a fait accompli from the board with no shareholder imput. Take the possible overseas acquistion thing.NZO has taken about 4 lots of money off shareholders as NZOG not as [nzworldwide explorations].So without so much as a by your leave and after taking our money the investment rules have changed.Real interest and respect for shareholders would have required at least the courtesy of going through the motions of asking us prior to such a hugh directional change.Note i have not ruled out an overseas purchase in itself as necessarly i bad thing,just the showing of absent of shareholder opion as being unnessary.
Currently oil is the place to be and NZO is as good as any of the other oil companies to invest in.Putting aside the recent world finanical problems and accompaning NZO SP linked decrease this company has done very well.When all the fine brains of the Cullen Fund lost 1/3 in value NZO has gone up 50%,so how could there be anything to complain about. -
My biggest concern is the seeds of that success is leading to a future likely failure.The board and managment is in very recent years expanded with many new faces and impressive academic records,but as academic quality goes up practical intelligence drops.This is exactally the problem Fonterra has with SanLU.I hear practical farmers tell me only academic thinking would have ever believed that you can control quality from Chinese products.
Thanks to TUI the board and managment look spot on.How we spend this money will be a concern as the directors are too heavily centred around book intelligence .They know what they know and have or refuse to have any link back to us to get educated on the things that are most likely to matter.To be a ongoing success NZO directors need ideas outside themselves.Relying solely on academic achievement is an unbalanced policy that will bring a San Lu to our doorstep.
welcome back digger
m
Thanks machine.
So how are we going to get this practical imput unto the board.Well if you are a feet on the ground person like myself it is very very simple.At very AGM the director sit up front and are faced so that they have to stare directally at the wisdon of the crowd. Yet when it comes to spending our money not one survey was launch to find out what we thought or what new and varied ideas we might have had.That is exactally what i would have done if i ran the show.The board has failed to first of all collect the widest possible varied ideas from the shareholders on how and where best to spend our money. Maybe at the end of the day they already had the best plan,still the non search from shareholders shows my point of a dominance of academic leadership. The board can hardly say they did not seek our ideas as they did not have our address. They certainly had our address in the last few years when our money was needed. My own thoughts is that we should be looking at forming a JV to buy a stake in a oil drilling rig. It is the tool of our trade and with the current finanical failure some pick up the morgage deals are likely to emerge.
Looks like opening at 1.31 today. Good time to spend this weeks dividend on buying more.
Bit of a precarious situation here for good ol NZO... On the way hand they're producing strongly and have a huge war chest sitting in the best place possible (given all the world economy crap going on)
... But on the other hand everyone's betting on demand destruction and the USD is hanging in there (for some reason)... So the POO could dive. I really don't want to, but am starting to look towards the exits, my faith is starting to dwindle that the sp will recover short/mid term.. Thoughts?
Welcome back reggiD/Reggid - as one long committed to 'doing my own dirty work' I've long felt that NZOG owning, or having a substantial share in, an oil rig would be a quite appropriate strategic investment. Especially given - 1. Rig (part?) ownership would be appropriate as a 'same field' business, 2.The ongoing scarecity of rigs available. 3. The ever-increasing of costs of hiring them and 4. NZOG's proposed further exploration activities. Makes sense to me.
Hi All,
Posted this on the 18th sept also a warning of the dead cat bounce on
the 16th Sept. Hate to be the one that said I told you so!
Whish I'd listened to Dunc earlier and got out of all my shares then.
I was on an Aussie webinar last night, the team had been watching a couple of US banks at there lows and instead of thinking a GR8 buy to accumlate @ $20 chose put options. Well Wochovia WB dropped from $10 on Friday to $3 on the premarket open, as we were online last night at 11.45pm they closed the webinar saying they were breaking out the Moet and partying. Made $20,000 & 15,000 in 3 days. Now thats action!!! Now closed at $1.80 with Citybank buying into them and there junk debt's.
These banks are like Dominoes and even the Bush bailout is chicken feed to whats to come! I think far worse than the 87 Oct crash. I know I was a fool and bought my first shares thinking I'd picked the bottom after it, only to dicover the meaning of the DEAD CAT BOUNCE ;-(
You can't eat oil or gas, It'll be back to basics foodn shelter.
As the big US consumers and pension funds loose money
That's all they will be able to afford.
NOT the luxury of Travel
Buy the foodies and trailer and tent makers
bought more ...
Welcome back reggid. Thanks for putting your self up as an independent. But I doubt it would have made much of a difference - on the other hand Fonterra has a 'shareholder rep' in that one director is always a farmer/farming leader. (although, again - didn't stop powdergate, Iraqgate, Moscow closure or SanLu).
More topically - todays events, I must get off my butt and get on with paper work to haul out more cash for plunging more deeply into this falling market - not being a MacDunkite - and having the pleasant experience of bargain hunting after '87 - I've been looking forward to performing more thefts -- Christmas has arrived early - NZO shares are a gift.
Beacon - My hard learnt number 1 rule never average down in a down trending Market - Learnt this in the 87 crash and dot com crash! This is far bigger, both of them took 3 years to turn, we are only 9 months into a downtrend from the tops. My pick and the guru's I follow reckon at least 18 months before a turn. therefore 9 months at the earliest.
A cut and paste from part of my post #5543 page 370 (22 July 2008)
...The reason why I am selling/sold NZO
1 The bear has found the NZO hiding place (TA sell signals)..and from past experience I have learnt not to fight bears...it's much financially healthier to run away and hide somewhere else.....DONT BE BRAVE. Bugger the FA as the bear can't count.
2 NZO may or may not hold support at 153. It has much risk attached to it, and my chosen bear market investing strategy won't allow this ..so I keep to the discipline of my strategy which says sell. If it holds that's great I can always buy back in.... I have that freedom of choice. If it breaks 153 support it has a more than 50% chance of testing the next 132/5 support and some chance again reaching the 120c TA target.
Getting close to the TA target of 120c...NZO is now back on my watchlist waiting for trend change and buy signals to time re-entering.
To exit Or not to exit,
That is the question,
Whether tis nobler in the bank balance
To suffer the slings and arrows of bear markets
Or by apposing, buy them,
To buy, to reap, Aye! Perchance to profit.
For in that bourse of death, what dividends may come.
When we have shuffled off our mortal bank balance,
For who would bear the writs and liens of time,
The undicovered debt bonds,
When he himself might his quietus make with a bare trade.
Thus plunging markets doth make cowards of us all,
And enterprises of great pith an moment loose the name of action!
Thats what i said just over one year ago on the first page. I also said that if you dont have a running stop loss you will end up with a hiding to nothing one day. I expect when the crisis is over we will be arguing the point with a new batch of fundamentalists.
Remember the sp was higher than this five years ago with you lot buying more at $1-50 for a couple of lousey dividends. The sitting duck season is now open some of you will never be seen or heard from again. Macdunk
Do NZO have 384 million shares on issue?
I am trying to put some numbers together.
Total Ordinary Shares on Issue 383,789,859 Unlisted Partly Paid Shares 3,568,500
http://investorcentre.nzog.com/phoen...rol-securities
reggid,
did you find out what sort of investment experts they have on the Board of NOG ?
When all those supper financial wizzard are failing all over the world, one could be forgiven to have some concern regarding where our 300 Mil. plus is parked.
Have we still got it all
CHEERS ALL
Not as safe as if Ise holding onto da cash...Quote:
trackers-Divided between cash on hand, on-call deposits, and shortterm term-deposits of 3 months or less, spread out between the major banks IIRC.
Safe as you're gonna get
Id take that doh and buy out an oil and gas stock that has future cashflows fifteen times what the stock is currently worth (on very conservative expectations)...
NZO BUY OUT CUE...
:cool:
.^sc
We may be closing in on a bazaar time where the street-value of one NZO share is worth less than its cash backing alone. Perhaps NZO will issue dollar notes for share certificates? Better still, NZ could swap their currency for the $NZO - backed by cash in the bank - just like the old gold standard.
confusing times indeed.
what happens to NZO's $300 million in the bank if the bank(s) fall over?
How many percent does NZO have in PRC?
31 per cent
http://www.nzog.com/Pike
It's time to dump Pike - the Indians and Chinese need the us to support their booms. That support is fading, and so will the demand for coking coal.
I think China can support their internal economy.
But not India, India's economy is a hopeless case, going to be 75 years behind China by the end of the century.
However, think being in coking coal is better then in thermal coal.
It is a concern alright but i think it is as safe as it can be in todays market.The problem become what is best to do with it.The present finanical crisis will go on into the near future so many opportunities will arisis.I just hope to hell no committments have already been made.
Fabs there is no investment expert on the NZO board or any other board. This meltdown is unlike any other that has ever occured so we are all in the dark about what to really do.To spend it quickly in the belief that the crisis will be over tomorrow or hold as it will only get worse and thereby opportunities better down the track---that is the question.
Digger
It's probably most prudent for NZO to largely ignore whats going on in the US, & with the $$$ coming in from Tui (adding to the cash pile) to sort out the Kupe finances before looking elsewhere. (Further cost overruns?)
Perhaps even further assistance with Pike if required?
Just look at the likes of BPT:ASX - buying into Albania, Egypt, Spain etc as an example of not sticking to ones knitting!
Am looking at NZO again ;)