Arie must be getting a good bundle offer from Sky in return to ask those questions.
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Arie must be getting a good bundle offer from Sky in return to ask those questions.
If they simply do a capital return to shareholders with the property sale proceeds it really is a non-event since the 'gain' is a non-recurring.
If they can't do any material investments with it (which Andy pretty much said they can't...the 'big' investments they are planning relate to extending broadband and the new STB...nothing about acquiring anything else...)...
.... well, then the only way to return capital in a way that increases per share value is a buyback.
But shares are already going to drop to 174.6M after the consolidation. So there aren't very many shares to buy back!
To be fair, they can't really say too much until they have a signed deal.
I reckon they will just do a divvy. The SP will be $1.60/share...so they will say hey guys, look we 10x'd the SP so it isn't undervalued now. he he he. Doesn't make sense for a buyback now! Take your divvy, and don't worry we will send a third of it to Cindy on your behalf! he he he.
Christ I hope I am wrong.
Sounds like they will be announcing a deal with Comcast soon.
Just not the one Egg wanted!
AHH HUHUHUHUHUH!
Who just dumped
Damnit OGG! I hadn't finished selling yet!!! Might have to keep some in the bottom draw for the eventual takeover...
Might Get our dollar if it goes to 10 cents then consolidates.
One wonders if the desire of Sky to leaseback the studio is causing some issues with the property sale - I’m sure those looking at the entire block would want to redevelop the site fully in the near term and don’t want sky as a tenant. Hopefully Sky can negotiate a short tenancy and move its operations quickly to a new site.
Looks like I will give these guys until 28 October, and then I have a decision to make.
If they just do some kind of one-off capital return, it may be that I wait for the cheque and then sell my position as, in my mind, they will have demonstrated that Sky's future will continue to be bleak despite the cash.
I stated a while back that in this day and age, you now either need to own the content or the distribution network to be able to grow and succeed.
ST members like Ogg prefer the content ownership path, and this has a lot of merit. This could be achieved by actively seeking a sale to Comcast...or some kind of JV partnership where Sky gets exclusive 'free' access to their entire content library. The market would view this favourably.
Without repeating myself too much, the other option (which I prefer) is to become a telco. This could have been achieved by doing a deal with Vocus. But the market would also view it favourably if Sky owned the distribution network.
And think on this - prior to fast internet c. 2015...Sky did exactly this...they owned the distribution network (satellite). As there was no real alternative for premium TV, their profits and FCF was embarrassingly high. Now, they had a monopoly on the network then and they would not now...so i am not suggesting they would earn the same kind of money again...but owning a broadband network to complement their satellite network would be a good thing.
It is clear that they screwed up a sale of Sky.
It is clear that they are not going to venture into telco.
So that doesn't leave much to look forward to. Sky continuing on as an aggregator with 3%-5% of their base taking their wholesale broadband offer is not much to be excited about. Sky will probably 'muddle along' down this path, but they won't achieve much meaningful growth that hits the bottom line and the market will continue to value the business as though it will be broke in 5 years.
Yes agreed. And if Sky are selling the campus they will already have plans in place in terms of where they want to move to. They would have made advanced plans on where to move to before selling the entire campus.
I imagine they want a more central location so that they can attract more talent (worker talent, not hot chicks to be clear :t_up:)
Market has obviously just clicked that the current Board of Directors have no real plan.
This seems like dead money for the next 12 months
Let’s hope this dog continues to tank so management actually feel the heat to address the takeover offers properly to the market. Right now the market is speaking loud and clear about the silence.
I still think it’s completely unacceptable that the expressions of interest weren’t described in more detail to the market.
Why is it taking Jarden so long to “assess” them? Should be obvious whether they are viable or not by now. Either “yes - they should be considered” or “no - they are below market value for the assets”. Is it taking so long because fhey are in discussions to improve the offers? Perhaps that would account for the ongoing “assessment” status?
My thoughts exactly. Slight upside if board achieves or exceeds guidance, or the property sale is really valuable, larger downside if they fail to achieve guidance. Not sure what my next move is just yet. Whilst I still think Sky will produce cashflow for quite some time, I'm becoming increasingly uncomfortable with the board. Why have the 200m bank facility if your going to hold onto every penny of FCF, they gave no indication of any large ticket acquisitions that would require such an iron grip on retaining earnings. A regretful purchase at this point, especially the small portion I bought at 17.2 :scared:
Totally agree.
At this point, it is hard to see how this board of directors are up to the task.
They won't sell the business. They won't buy anything. They hoard all FCF and won't use ANY leverage to grow the business in a meaningful way.
If we are lucky we MIGHT get some kind of a payment next year. But they will probably disappoint is there too - either by the amount they give us or the mechanism for distribution (i.e a loathsome dividend).