..what you reckon will happen to shareprice Toby?
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Despite temporarily exiting my entire position in this stock I don't think its a horrible company.
The thing that deeply troubles me is the inconsistency and lumpiness in revenues. On deeper investigation one can appreciate that there was a reason given for the extraordinarily large revenue achieved in q4 last year with "pre-launch product fulfillment"
However if you look at the trend
FY18 q4 - 1.68 million
FY19 q4 - 3.58 million
FY20 q4 - 1.9 million
That isn't exactly comforting. The quarter 3 result was notable given it was a stagnant quarter over the last two years demonstrating around 5% growth yoy, but one needs to question whether the growth demonstrated is simply expansion growth by selling it in more venues/better distribution channels vs sustainable organic growth. With healthcare products like probiotics its difficult to ascertain whether this is going to be a hit or not since it doesn't have that robust support network a conventional drug would have for a given disease.
I do think the positive sentiment around the product for halitosis is a key market in the dental space, but how greatly this materializes is questionable.
Excellent analysis. Agree with above
Expect BLT to do very well out of coronavirus. .....probably just perception,
...the thought of stopping the virus at point of entry (mouth) will be enough to drive panic buying I bet. Big revenue gains ahead highly likely IMHO.....and this could just be starting.
............the "buying" market (aka consumers) has just gone up 100 or 1000 fold, without needing any further marketing energy or capital. Agree manafacturing capacity may hold them back from taking full advantage of this situation.........lets hope they've got their A's in2 Gear. It's called MAKING HAY WHILE THE SUN SHINES........this could continue for a very longtime as we see and hear it gathers steam.
........in that case WINNER a double-whammy.....in fact maybe a triple whammy, the more sneezing the more this thing will spread the more BLIS cleaned off the shelves. Blis will have zero benefit in regard the coronavirus but HAY! lets just hope the millions of sheep out there continue thinking it will.
Market not thinking at all...........just reacting. Nothing new........history shows this and these are the opportunities to make serious money in any market.
Market thinking OK ....PEB us top of leaderboard
https://www.southernsteel.co.nz/Part...cial-__I.38788
BLIS is now the official associate partner of Southern Steel Netball...
Bring it on!
Well just for some real world product feedback (I am a shareholder too). Been taking Blis for the last few months, have come down with a cold over the last 3-4 days (probably from my 3 year old daughter). Wife has been on it longer and she hasn't had anything. Always have this nagging feeling that any of these products (e.g. multivitamins, blis etc) are borderline scientific and just rely on the psychological benefit of something is better than nothing :)
BLIS isn't going to stop you from getting a cold every year m8
Blis has more scientific backing to it, than say many of the vitamins or products of similar ilk. Can always pick up a cold through other ways than the throat - ie rubbing your eyes or similar.
Always hard to tell how you get colds/flu and if what you take helps.
I've taken the toothguard, as have a problem with my gums in a specific area. After the hygienist said a few weeks of flossing and mouth-washing would fix it, I did that for 3 months with no improvement. Toothguard has improved it - and without any flossing or mouthwash...….
Bit like deer velvet. I've taken that on and off. Does it work? Haven't had a cold while on it (use to get at least 1 chest infection/year) and believe helped recovery from marathons and ultra runs. If you think it works, it works.
Upgrade from BLIS due to
a/ COVID-19 &
b/ COVID-19.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/349946
Pity it has come about this way.
BLT has been a shining light in all this doom I dropped all other holdings other than BLT and NTL just before the crash and very happy with current position and today’s announcement.
Fully loaded up on Blis on Thursday, reasonably happy this morning, but can it keep going up during this time or are people too far gone to panic?
I think some people actually read the announcement properly and didnt get too excited
BLT have increased forecast revenue by 600k just one month after the previous forecast. This is for just the last quarter of this FY.
so although not a huge increase in revenue, I would expect they are being conservative due to the big spike in sales making it difficult to forecast.
I know that 2 of the pharmacies in Wgtn sold out last week, so encouraging signs
Why so quiet.
Im all for the increased guidance . I guess some people aren’t excited about the fact that projected second half revenues are actually 5 percent lower than fy19 second half revenue ..
I guess one could extrapolate last years q4 was inflated by the freight delays in q3 which artificially inflated their q4 but still a little strange for a growth company.
Earnings upgrade is great but yeah.. maybe some people projected greater revenue growth than that.
I wonder if freight delays will stop the guidance being achieved now too but I guess it probably won’t since they’ve decided to firmly provide an update amidst the virus getting worse
Went to three chemist's today, all three out of ultrablis and waiting on more.
Blis CEO was on RadioNZ earlier this week saying they were struggling to meet demand. He mentioned hiring extra and staff and double shifts which was heartening to hear. Considering this crisis will likely continue for months to years rather than weeks, it's understandable that an increasing number of people will become more aware/proactive with supplements which *may* boost immunity.
Not sure about ultra blis but the 2 in wellington were out od all Blis products at the start of last week
Found it. Sounds like they’re ramping up production to try and meet demand.
@ 1min40
https://www.rnz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=2018739149
I heard that they are very reliant on a very small number of production staff....need more staff
......................
I thought he was suggesting joining the dots... 😂
I have used Throatguard in the past. I went to the chemist today and he had none but was stocked up with DAILY DEFENCE another Blis product. I wonder if they are different products or is it just a marketing ploy. I know that Throatguard andTravelguard were similar or identical products.
With the lockdown will Blis warehouses actually be running?
The lockdown for a month is actually going to cripple some of these NZ businesses.. BLT was doing great but if warehouses are shutting down that's one awkward situation
Great news.
BLT
26/03/2020 11:04
MKTUPDTE
PRICE SENSITIVE
REL: 1104 HRS Blis Technologies Limited
MKTUPDTE: BLT: Business update - Essential Business
26 March 2020
Business update - Essential Business
Brian Watson, Chief Executive Officer of Blis Technologies (NZX:BLT), has
confirmed Blis Technologies will remain operational following the Government
overnight raising the national COVID-19 response to Level 4. Blis
Technologies manufacturing and elements of its scientific services are
classified as "essential services". The company has completed the MPI
registration process to maintain that status, and subject to that, they will
continue operating.
As manufacturers of unique probiotics that support immunity, Blis
Technologies is an important supplier to consumers in NZ through pharmacies
and online sales. Essential functions at Blis Technologies will remain
operational during the COVID-19 Level 4 period to ensure BLIS Probiotics can
continue to be supplied to support immunity and throat health of thousands of
New Zealanders during a time of high need and into the winter cold and flu
season.
Blis Technologies is committed to delivering services in accordance with the
Government's guidance to protect the health and wellbeing of all New
Zealanders. Staff that do not have a critical role in manufacture or testing
are working from home. Workplace segregation, social distancing and
sanitisation protocols are fully implemented at both our sites.
We are working closely with our suppliers to ensure continuity of supply.
Ends
For further information, please contact:
Brian Watson
CEO
+64 27 705 9133
Go you Good thing GO
Daily Defence, strawberry, now available on line.
A good article on probiotics below
https://i.stuff.co.nz/life-style/wel...s-good-for-you
Blis is proven to work, they should be supplying information to the journalist.
What about the blind man in Bethsaida
“Then his eyes were opened and he saw everything clearly”
His experience was proof to him.....he could see.
I understand that there have been several clinical trials. You could have a look at these two for a start.
1. Di Pierro F1, Colombo M2, Zanvit A3, Rottoli AS4. Positive clinical
outcomes derived from using Streptococcus salivarius K12 to prevent
streptococcal pharyngotonsillitis in children: a pilot investigation. Drug
Healthc Patient Saf. 2016 Nov 21;8:77-81. eCollection 2016.
2. F. Di Pierro, M. Colombo, M.G. Giuliani, M.L. Danza, I. Basile, T.
Bollani, A.M. Conti, A. Zanvit, A.S. Rottoli. Effect of administration of
Streptococcus salivarius K12 on the occurrence of streptococcal
pharyngo-tonsillitis, scarlet fever and acute otitis media in 3 years old
children. Eur Rev Med Pharmacol Sci Year: 2016 Vol. 20 - N. 21 Pages:
4601-4606.
Below is a link to an Independent Research Report from 2016, this looks like the easiest one place to start looking for information on clinical studies etc.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/287583
There are several other announcements on studies in Italy and China.
After sending out the link above, I have had a refresher / read and found this interesting information on manufacturing. This is good information considering the recent announcement on the 16th March.
“To date our supply chain, from ingredient supply through to manufacture of finished product has been able to meet the lift in demand and we have significantly increased our production to meet anticipated forward orders. We continue to monitor our supply chain for any future constraints.”
Blis Manufacturing (as at Aug 2016)
Prior to the commissioning of the Birch St facility in Dunedin in September 2013 at a cost of around $0.5m, Blis outsourced lozenge manufacturing to two offshore companies and one based in Nelson. On commissioning of the facility in Dunedin Blis has the capability to produce finished goods including lozenges (bottles and blisters), powders (bottles and sachets) and nutritionals (blended powders in bags and sachets and pre-mix for cans).
The basic ingredient is manufactured by Fonterra (Palmerston North) and shipped to Dunedin with logistics coordinated in Dunedin. The company has plenty of capacity at its Birch street facility to enable future growth.
Current manufacturing in Dunedin is on a single shift only with the ability to triple shift as and when required. Beyond this internal capacity, the company has offshore Lozenge contract manufacturers in Italy and Serbia servicing the EU and several contract manufacturers in the USA.
Blis also contract manufactures for a number of companies with dairy offerings as it holds a Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) approved registered risk management programme (RMP) status for dairy manufacture. It also manufactures a small number of non-dairy products that require dry blending capability. The company sees the capability as useful as it provides a channel to market for Blis containing nutritional offers in the future.
We understand there has been some risk around raw material supply but the company is in the process of signing a revised supply agreement with Fonterra which will provide capacity to meet near term projections with Fonterra going through an internal process which if approved will serve to increase capacity available to Blis and meet Fonterra’s own needs. Further the company recognizes its single supplier risk and is evaluating alternate sources of supply both in the USA and Europe.
Hi.im new to sharetrader but have been in the market for some time.Emailed blis yesterday as to extra staff and shifts.Reply as follows
31 Mar at 8:44 am
Thank you for your enquiry.
We have increased our staff numbers at our production facility and are working at capacity.
Team BLIS
And a response in respect to product availability and manufacturing last week
24 Mar at 11:24 am
HI Nev,
Thanks for your email.
We are working on the assumption that we will continue to produce and supply to pharmacy.
We have very heavy orders and we are working as hard as we can to meet demand.
We are currently in stock online and this is the best place to get BLIS Probiotics : www.blis.co.nz
Kind Regards
Team BLIS.
Not sure why folk are selling with such great demand,hiring staff and a new global awareness of probiotics but there ya go
[QUOTE=RGR367;803248]Just leave fp when it comes to BLT evidence as he had questioning those studies since I can remember :cool:[/QUOT
Yeah strange one from FP to come to science based product and ask for science. Do AirNZ really fly? I've seen numerous studies over the years from Blis indicating it's efficacy. It's not pseudo-scientific homeopathy they're hocking off. It's decades of research and testing. John Tagg was my professor back in the mid-90's and I remember our (very large) class provided mouth swabs for research and volunteers, including myself, tried some of the early blis formulas and were subsequently swabbed again later in the year.
While I trade the stock from time to time, some of its benefits are most likely exaggerated as is the case for most supplements. I make note its impact on halitosis is somewhat notable, however beyond that I wouldn't extrapolate too much.
And it's ok, because like most supplements its success will be sentiment driven by a non-medically informed population. That doesn't mean it can't be successful. The patent and product mix are what make the company alright. Revenues are questionable and lumpy, but I think they are doing alright for now.
I wouldn't try selling this as the next big "drug" like supplement though. Immune strengthening is another over the top marketing ploy that is probably working right now.
The Italian studies were quite significant. The Canadians assessed the research and let them claim health benefits in their advertising. I have never understood why they did not attack the Canadian market with gusto. If sales there matched the NZ sales per capita they would be selling $7 a year into that market alone. Their plan was to increase their presence in Canada this year, but time is running out on their main patent. Hopefully they can get a truckload of product out over the next month as margins should be high enough to pay for the research pipeline on new product.
Well disclosed admirer.
Added at 6.1 today. Own view is that it may not be cheaper in view of increased production and demand.
Who knows in these times?
Quick google:
CONCLUSIONS: The daily administration ofBLIS K12 to children attending their first year ofkindergarten was associated with a significantreduction in episodes of streptococcal pharyngitis and acute otitis media. No protection againstscarlet fever was detected.
Results: The 20 adults who completed the 90-day course of Bactoblis® showed a reduction in their episodes of streptococcal pharyngeal infection (about 80%). The 90 days treatment was also associated with an approximately 60% reduction in the incidence of reported pharyngitis in the 6-month period following use of the product. The product was well tolerated by the subjects with no treatment-related side effects or drop-outs reported.
I don't have a PHD is health science so can't make an educated opinion as to whether or not the 30 odd trials are a crock.
After reviewing supporting science and safety publications, Health Canada has approved products containing BLIS K12 to bear claim language such as, the product “promotes oral health [through the re-colonisation of the oral cavity]”, that it is an “oral probiotic for re-colonisation of the oral cavity after antibiotic treatment”, that “following oral antimicrobial rinsing Streptococcus salivarius K12 supplementation helps reduce volatile sulfur compound levels (halitosis)”, and that it “can help reduce the incidence of
Streptococcal pharyngitis/tonsillitis (sore throats caused by pathogenic xvariants belonging to the Streptococcus genus)”.
Anticipation seems to be building in the SP for May. Wonder if this will go to a new 52w high before results ?
Pharmacy Direct out of stock for Daily Defence today.
Just remember this is a heavily traded stock by the institutions, so don't read into up or down movements of the SP too much, and position appropriately.
Trade fundamentals , and technicals if you want good entry points
They are fulfilling online orders very efficiently and quickly, and offering shareholders a discount. Having bought a few shares recently, I figured now is probably a good time to try their product. Went with their new UltraBliS. Given my work situation I think it’s worth a try. Early days but I do think it is helping the ongoing chronic hypersensitive larynx related cough I have. If it can fix that, I will be one happy camper.
Q, Why have the bots taken over trading today ?
Noticed that myself.im hoping it's not a pump and dump scenario.