Not in love - but still want to have fun
Quote:
Originally Posted by
duncan macgregor
NZO down to 141c at the moment which hopefully will be a good lesson to take on board about how useless fundamental anaysis is in a down trending market. Its all market sentiment whats love got to do with it. All companies will crap out in a crashing market the wise investor stands aside waiting to pick up the road kill. Think about how much money over the years you might have made with a simple 10% or 15% running stop loss.
Five years ago the sp was in the 130c range with some great rises and falls in between yet the fall in love with a company brigade blind themselves to the harsh reality of how the market works.
The price of oil will nearly double in 2009 so all is not lost macdunk will be waiting to buy your roadkill about then so hang on in the road is about to get much rougher. Macdunk
Alas, despite forcefulness of your argument I still remain a doubter. Road kill is hard to obtain because nobody can remember the future.
As you well know - usually, on average etc. etc. - a well-balanced portfolio will outperform one that is traded with a strategy to avoid market dips and slumps.
Interestingly, there was a study that demonstrates this in that portfolios operated by women outperform those be men - the reason is that men tend to trade too often in an attempt to do the very thing you are advocating - which I interpret as removing money before a dip/slump and re-joining before a bull.
I have an interesting chart pinned to my wall as a reminder of the REAL mechanics at work. It is a chart put out by Grosvenor in 2004 - it shows the comparitive returns of differing investment vehicles over time. One of the lines on the chart is NZ equities from 1970 to 2004. In short, $10,000 placed in 1970 has grown to $736,587 in 2004. (Yes - I had thought about inflation, so 10K in 1970 is equivalent to 120K in adjusted money - still, not bad huh?).
I'm sure you already know that length of time in market and risk mitigation are the greatest contributors to portfolio gain - the rest just fiddles at the edges and gains are for the lucky only - why ignore this?
Finally - NZO is an odd case, at least in my portfolio - it is a sideline interest and, yes, a punt. But at least I recognise that and have not predicated the age at which I retire based on how NZO does… but it's a fun stock to have. (I'm over 18 and I can break the 'rules' if I want)
Anyway - that's the Tao of Casa.
Direct broking trying to do their bit to support the SP
Check out the NTA on the details section
If only the share price reflected the asset backing;)
Does this scenario sound familiar?
It seems to be a worldwide phenomenon:
Surgutneftegaz, one of the largest companies in Russia, was trading Wednesday at just over the value of the cash in its bank account, meaning investors valued its vast oil fields, thousands of employees and other assets as nearly worthless. - International Herald Tribune
The markets are reaching hysterical levels in the way they're swinging around now. Investors are jumping out of stocks and into gold today... who knows what they're going to be doing tomorrow! And meanwhile you can buy shares at the value of cash in the bank, getting all the oil and gas (and coal) for practically nothing...
Was Watching that support also
Thanks Phaedrus, I was watching that previous support also as it had formed a classic head'n shoulders pattern!
Whats your next guess of support to drop too then?
My guess around the $1.25 ish previous resistance peak.
Drop in POO is likely temporary and fortuitous
NZO is currently looking at how best to spend our treasure trove .
This is well known and they have much to choose from-drilling rigs will become available at cheaper prices-as will buy-ins .
We have been lucky with timing .
The market is fueled by fear but I cannot see what an nzo holder has to fear-especially if we can get digger on the board.
Am currently planning to spend dividend ,s from telecom ,cen and nzo -and at current prices believe its best spent on topping up with nzo .
Defense is best form of attack
Quote:
Originally Posted by
joey
Fortunately at the moment I have a large cash holding, due to my wife accepting redundancy from her job. So I will wait to the moment is right to start buying equities. I feel at the moment I would like some money in gold and gold futures. It is both a protection from inflation and initially at least a protection from deflation.
Remember, inflation or deflation is usually a political decision, so I feel at the moment the world monetary authorities fear deflation more. The problem with this is they are sowing the next bubble! Which I would surmise will be an energy/green bubble!
Any way that's my opinion.
What do other posters feel will be the best way to go forwar in these very "choppy" markets?
joey.
Choppy is the word for it. Stay in your fox hole until the shells stop falling. As a parallel - I've no intention changing any positions probably for weeks(?) yet - at least until some direction is visible - - if NOG is still ultra cheap and especially if the 1000 bunker busters just purchased by a certain Mid East power looks like they are going to be used - - then NOG is probably the only game in town.
Meanwhile the piggy bank, emergency maples remain untouched.