underwriters usually get fees too, though I wouldnt know if that would be appropriate in this case.
BTW Maverick
awesome post on the 25th, I didn't see it until a couple of days ago.
Printable View
Sure.But my point was that there maybe well be a great time to buy/topup OCA as property prices drop in the coming months/year.Happy to await this with cash atpit.
'Bank of Mum and Dad' putting parents at risk
"New Zealand’s real estate market could hit a crunch in September as the end of wage subsidies and mortgage holidays combine with the uncertainty of the election, it has been warned. Banks have also been offering payment deferral on mortgages for people who have been affected financially by Covid-19 for six months. This scheme started on March 27 and will also finish in September www.globalnews.co.nz
The divie is only $7m odd so not going to make much difference to anything
more than pays OCA's bonuses at least, probably helps some at MAQ's earn a bonus as well... win win... shareholders lose with additional dilution... but not that much as you say.
Hi guys
Can anyone make sense of the Buy/Sell table from ASB for OCA, takenjust before 5pm today - some buyers at $1.09, some sellers at $0.94.
Is this an after closing aberration of some kind?
Attachment 11835
It’s how things are done at the end of day ...the closing auction
Start with this from NZX ....and research further if you really keen
https://www.nzx.com/investing/nzx-tr...-a-trading-day
I read about the underwriting of the dividend reinvestment. Sounded strange to me. Why would that be necessary. Still a relatively small amount. But one thing about a small dividend the SP doesn't move so much when going Ex.
I have been pushing OCA as a long term hold, but have recently had some doubts. Just with the inevitable 2nd wave to come in NZ. Ending of the QE etc. But balancing that with the holding of large amounts of cash, I am really in a quandry as to whether to sell. or hold. Never before have I been in a position as to not knowing what to do. Take a profit or hold for security for the future.
Is it an inevitability and has the possibility / probability ? of another regional or nationwide lockdown already been fully factored into the current share price of some companies and not others....that's the $64,000 question.
Why do the risks appear to have been factored into some companies and not others ? (If you can work that out please let me know the answer).
My estimate is that on an annualized basis OCA can earn about 9.5 - 10.0 cents per share in ten months of FY21, *(assuming no nationwide shutdown), which puts the stock on a forward PE of just 10-10.5. Why are other retirement companies that bear ostensibly similar Covid risks trading at much higher multiples ?
If one is going to reduce their investment position due to the possible risks of another outbreak some careful thought should be applied as to which of one's shares are more vulnerable and which have a proven track record of being resilient.
One might consider applying "the sleep test" to their portfolio allocations. If something about your portfolio allocations is keeping you up at night then adjust one's investment position(s) until you sleep reasonably soundly. Cash is presently returning almost nothing and there seems little prospect of this changing in the foreseeable future.
Hope this helps.
Haven’t had time to reconcile this yet but on the drip I’ve just got 1.2% more new shares than I had before at a 2.5% discount to market. I love the drip, it’s way more satisfying accumulating shares, than getting a pile of cash dividend that I’d have to figure out what to do with and probably just buy more OCA anyway.
Three problems:
- Occupancy rate is lower (although OCA is improving) , compared with other competitors
- Resident/Staff ratio is too low, inefficiency. SUM has 5500 residents, 1500 staff. OCA has 3600 residents, 2800 staff.......way to high. What's wrong with the management team? If you look at MET, oh~~~5600 residents with only 1000 staff.
- All players rush into the premium apartment business model, heavy competition in the niche market
Thanks, decided to hold and if it goes down, will accumulate.
It's natural that after the adrenaline fueled events of the last few months, with things now having settled down somewhat, plus having just gone ex divvy and watching the mayhem unfold in the west island that one might want to take stock (or not, as the case may be) and reassess. Personally, there's nowhere else I'd rather have my money atm.
Same. But we still hold about the same percentage of the company as we did before. So nothing much has changed at all. Agree with Cyclical that I think this is a good long term hold for a MODEST part of my portfolio. But unlike Cyclical, I see better places where I want to have bigger chunks of my money invested at the moment.
Remember your/my 1.2c comes without any imputation/supplementary so we are going to be docked 33%/15% and the dregs buys us our DRiP shares :(.
I know - diversification is boring, but boring is good for sleep. I kept some of our money in shares (like OCA), put some of it into gold (-miners), some into bear funds and some is kept as cash. Admittedly - the upside potential is limited, but the downside potential as well ... and hey - my wife tells me that I am sleeping quite well these days :):
Perhaps it's not all about dividend plays and I agree with Iceman, OCA is not 'the only game in town.'
If you want to see what other better options there are, simply check out the top entries in the 2020 Share Picking Competition.
This guy explains it well
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ay1lOK1l9Y
The sleep test is a great way of figuring out if you are investing (and you know your investment- and in OCAs case that is very difficult without a load of effort) or you are gambling.
If you can roll your Covid dice for another few weeks (after all , there's been no community transmission for 3 months now) then why not wait to see what the directors do now they have a buying window.
I`ve particularly got an eye on what Greg T does , He`s been with the company from what it was way back then to where it is currently sitting at this stage of its transformation. I've met him only once but and he really impressed me that he knows this puppy inside and out.
That's a great idea, thanks. They are slightly oversized in my portfolio...I am slightly in the black ignoring the gain I made when I sold ~50% @136. And was wondering whether to reduce my portfolio % or just sit. One thing for sure...if /when they get back to mid 130's.....I will be reducing my allocation a tad.
Commercial property stocks appear to be the new inflation hedging stocks some only paying now 2.5% the new term deposit and with property prices holding up nicely it maybe you will get your 1.30 after all.
Wouldn't get too excited about property prices booming imo crunch may be around Christmas.
That 61.8% Fib Retrace is a thing eh @Winner, stalled out again, waiting for some upside positive like the property market Is going nuts, or a COVID second wave and we can again buy up even larger at below NTA again. Patience is a b1tch.
I reckon the most likely outcome is the share price will hang around the 98 cents - $1.05 range for quite a while. Speculators / traders and punters are likely to get pretty bored with that but investors like Mav and I won't care, we're in for the long haul. If we stay Covid free in the community we should see the share price starting to wake up to the prospect of a really good first half, sometime quite late in 2020.
Maybe there will be some insights at the annual meeting on 27 August or maybe there's some in the annual report that arrived yesterday.
I intend to waddle along to the annual meeting and see what the scones are like. Might even get to hear some more heart warming stories about how the old folks were really looked after in lockdown. This dog might be starting to go soft in the snout / head as I get towards retirement as I am starting to think its not just all about money...and really do enjoy the fact that residents were superbly looked after. Help, what's happening to me lol
Think I'll go all soft & gooey with you Beagle, approaching that timeframe makes you susceptible to such thinking. Just a decent, properly run company that cares about its residents. And that alone will be reflected in the share price too.
Same with Wesfarmers in Aust. They are paying all their employees themselves, no govt subsidies, thru the Covid disruptions in Victoria. One, because they can and two, because it's the right thing to do - giving capitalism a good name after all...
Pleasing to see some are coming around to this what I posted a few months ago.
The world in a sorry state today because guru economist Milton Friedman said “the only responsibility of business is to maximize shortterm profits, regardless of the social and environmental costs.”
We’ve got to change that “Maximize short-term profits, regardless of the social and environmental costs” attitude to “maximize long-term benefits for all people and nature.”
I don’t give a stuff what Oceania’s (or any company) short term profits are as long as they work towards creating a better life for all of us in the future.
I'm in the middle of getting a first hand lesson in the real value of late stage care and what it means to people
I only have a few months left to enjoy being with my Mum. She has incurable liver cancer which has already spread to one of her ribs as of a month ago, probably more than one now. Although she's not in an OCA facility it is wonderful to see she is being well supported by the her friends, family, the nurse of the retirement village where she has resided for the last ten years and the local DHB are stepping up her in unit assistance as her needs change. There's a very good hospice just down the road for when things get really tough and at this stage she attends a weekly outpatient support group where other terminal patients who are still mobile meet. I've got to say I think the local DHB and hospice have been very good so far...so really good care is certainly not limited to just OCA facilities but this experience is shining the spotlight for me on the true value of high quality care for our elderly folks. I thought long and hard about getting her moved to a really good care suite at the Sands with a nice view of the beach, (money is no object when it comes to my Mum as far as I am concerned), but the truth is she is so happy in her current retirement village surrounded by all her friends, one of whom is a retired nurse, I think she would be really miserable anywhere else. She has a nice sunny two bedroom unit with its own sunroom and her sister who is 9 years younger and still very well has flown up from Dunedin to stay for the next 6 weeks. She told me today they sit in the sunroom together in the morning over a coffee and breakfast and talk about their early days together.
I initiated a weekly meeting for our extended family so we all meet each Saturday for lunch and to reflect on our life together as a family which is a really cool way to riminess about old times. Most of the brothers wives come along most of the time. Mum told me last week she feels completely surrounded with loving arms and heaps of support. There is nothing more I could hope to hear than this at this time. It brought tears to my eyes and really gives me a fresh understanding of the value that real quality support provides for elderly vulnerable people. At this point she is pain free...I know it will get more grueling later on but I feel blessed to have a chance to spend time with her these last few months and to say goodbye while her mind is unaffected by any serious hard core pain medication.
The specialists are confident she will at least make it to her 91st birthday late next month...they gave her 5-8 months as of early July. Although this is not a story of OCA care, OCA do have an excellent reputation for late stage care and I think investors can feel a real sense of satisfaction of being a part of a company that's doing so much good for our elderly vulnerable folks.
I get the warm fuzzies as a shareholder that I'm a small part in this enterprise that does so much good.
That is great beagle and heart warming.
I have a grandfather who is very confused, dementia but really went down hill after he took a fall. He is relatively happy and very well taken care of with hospital grade care and a premium suite (not oca). It is clear to me that there is immense value to him and the family in the premium care he receives. I don’t begrudge any operator making a buck when they offer such value.
Not an easy time.
Yet everything in your post is so positive.
In the right place with all the right people caring for her.Pleasing her sister made the trip to be with her for 6 weeks.
I am sure everyone on ST are thinking of your mum,and her loving family.
You are very much in our thoughts Beagle, you, your Mum and family. My own best friend from high school days has terminal prostate cancer and we keep in touch daily and we share his journey through scans, chemo, pain relief and life memories. The thing that links us all is our common humanity, which comes into sharp relief in times like these.
We hardly ever meet but I can just tell how much you love your Mum as I remember my own Mum and how dear she was to me. With all you have given of yourself to us all Beagle, let us help share the burden a little at this sensitive time for you all, if you would like this. Message anyone of us you know to share if you should need it. We've got your back mate...
Sorry to hear your news Beagle. Thanks for sharing. My thoughts and best wishes are with you. You are doing all the right things. Surround yourself with family and enjoy your times with them. Best wishes.
My thoughts are with you beagle - as you are probably aware, the 'care' aspect is something I have banged on about for many years (mainly over on the ARV thread - well prior to OCA's listing) and is one of the reasons I have stayed away from SUM and MET (even if for some periods of time they may have produced superior returns) as they simply do not have this top notch care aspect (such as OCA, ARV and RYM have) that is really quite critical not just in terms of an overall continuum of care offering, but in a real/tangible aspect. All the best from me during these times.
Thanks folks for your very kind words and thoughts which are very much appreciated. I'm doing okay. I guess that highlighted part is what I am trying to say. There is immense value not just to our elderly folks in getting really good high quality care but also to their families in knowing their loved ones are being really well looked after. This is tremendously comforting.
Thanks mate and I am very sorry to hear of your news. It must be very tough to be losing your best friend who you have known so closely for so long and a warning for all of us of that age to get annual blood tests to check for prostate. My Mum was a pastor's wife and supported Dad heaps in his decades as a Presbyterian minister so I know she's going to a better place and I am at peace with knowing that. In the last few weeks I've really enjoyed listening to her tell stories about her early years, born in 1929, grew up in the great depression years on the farm, made lots of friends swapping food stamps, (the very beginnings of the welfare state in N.Z.), the war years of 1939-1945. Lots of young men heading off to war, they used to have farewell parties in Southland knowing there was a fair chance they would not return. My Dad who passed about 7 years ago was on one of the ships on his way to fight the Japanese who were known to be going to fight to the last man standing...but during the journey the American's dropped the atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the Japanese surrendered. If it were not for the atomic bombs my Dad would have had to fight and may well have been killed and I may not have been born...pretty ironic isn't it !
Mum became a Karatane nurse in the late 1940's. Back in those days they didn't have incubators so the premature babies had three hotties surrounding them. The hot water bottle on each side of baby had two cups of cold water and then the rest filled with boiling water to get the temperature exactly right and the one at each babies feet had one cup of cold water to the rest boiling water so the temperature was much higher to warm babies feet. Babies were classified into four groups, really premature, weaklings, (doubt that term would be politically correct these days lol), and two other classes which from memory were something like a bit needy and normal. Stories like this will be lost when this generation passes which is why I shared.
She's had a long full life and is at peace with what's happening and she's being well surrounded with love, friendship and support. There is no stopping the natural order of how things will progress so I have found a place of peace with the process too. Best wishes to you...I hope you and your best friend find a place of peace with your journey.
I sometimes reflect about all the care givers and nurses who risked their own lives to support our elderly folks during the Covid lockdown. They are all hero's ! As a shareholder I suppose in a very small way we can also share in that pride as we are supporting a company that is building heaps of new premium care suites for our elderly vulnerable folks.
Thinking of you Beagle. Tough to deal with but I am so glad you feel this way about your Mum’s care. The lovely letters, cards and comments we receive at work, from families after their loved one has died, reflect your highlighted comment below. I go to as many residents funerals as I can, and our rest home and staff always get a mention and thank you during the service. I have shed more than a few tears, hugged more than a few family members. A colleague and I attended one graveside funeral a while back. We hung back behind family as we didn’t want to intrude, and stayed there while the family took flowers from baskets to drop into the grave. We quietly decided to leave at this point, but the resident’s daughter came running over and dragged us back with “Please don’t go. You are family too. Come and choose a flower.” I will never forget that moment and the way it made me feel.
My own Mum has been living in the care of my sister for some years now. She has Alzheimers and broke her hip a few weeks ago. My sister was determined to get her back home where she belonged, but after one night, she sadly realised that there is no longer any way she can cope with continuing to care for Mum. Mum’s needs are now simply too high and she is not safe in my sister’s older style villa anymore. So Mum is back in hospital until they can find her an emergency rest home bed next week. Then we begin the sad task of finding her a permanent placement, and everything that runs alongside that decision.Mum has already forgotten the difficult conversation my sister had with her the other day, about this decision. Which makes it so much harder and traumatic for everyone.
Dementia is a cruel bitch of a condition.
(sorry for high-jacking your post)
Thank you justakiwi and I am sorry to hear your Mum has dementia. That's very tough. One trick I used when my Dad had dementia towards the end when I knew he wouldn't remember anything after a minute or two was I would go and see him at the Ryman dementia facility and greet him with saying, Hi Dad I'm your son Roger and its so good to see you. I would then sit there and spend time with him pretending he still knew who I was. Sometimes simple coping techniques like that make life more bearable for family.
I am sure you've learned quite a few coping mechanisms over the years but it is very tough with your own parent watching them slowly deteriorate over the years.
Best wishes.
Anyway its a new week and we celebrate 100 days of no transmission of Covid in the community. We are the envy of the world and can live pretty normal lives. Lets all celebrate that today and think how blessed we are. Take someone you love out for a special lunch or dinner and celebrate the freedom we enjoy here to do that :)
Looking forward to OCA's annual meeting. I might trawl through the annual report this week and see if there's any tidbits in there that I've previously missed.
My mother was in a Ryman facility and I have to say they were excellent, especially towards the end of her life. I think it is important that the likes of Ryman, Oceania, Summerset etc appropriately pay and train their staff. As a shareholder of course we want to see dividends, but as a human being, I want to see that the word "care" actually means something when they talk about it in their glossy documents.
I feel for you Beagle,my Mum is in the same boat with late care stage cancer, and is also in an aged care facility where they are doing a great job..Makes you think about a lot of things.I don't post much on here but thank you for all the useful posts of yours I have read over the past couple of years
Thanks, you're most welcome and you're quite right. The sort of situation you and I are in makes you reflect a lot on the value of things that money can't buy.
I am fortunate to have a best friend I have known forever and he and his family live with his mother who's still in good health for 80 years of age. I was round there last night having a good old natter about things. I asked if she would like to be a Mum to me after my Mum passes away. She gave me a big smile and caring hug. I took that as a yes :) Gotta look for silver linings in the clouds wherever you can find them at times like this !!
Couldn't agree more Suse. My mum spent her last 8 weeks in an Oceania home, she died at the beginning of lockdown. The care she received was excellent, especially considering the stress that covid was putting on the system at that time. As a shareholder, I believe nurses in retirement villages absolutely deserve the same pay as all other nurses. I'd like to see all the other essential workers there - the managers, carers, cleaners etc - who support our loved ones at their most vulnerable - get higher wages too. I believe more investment in staff would mean the sector would then become more attractive to work in, attracting and retaining top quality staff. Which should result in better care, and a better bottom line.
Be careful ... The Warehouse tried this trick in the retail arena - and just look where it got them. A very average but highly overpaid staff resulting now in huge job losses. That's life ...
Defining salaries is a tricky job. If you pay your people not enough, the best staff will leave. If you pay them too much, the worst staff will stay. Feeling warm and fuzzy is a terrible method to set ones salaries.
As well- ever thought who is going to pay for it if we pay our amazing age care workers a well as our amazing health care workers as well as our amazing police staff as well as our amazing teachers as well as our amazing road workers as well as our amazing planers as well as our amazing and essential retail workers as well as our amazing bus drivers as well as our (enter your personal heroes here) .... higher salaries because - no doubt, they all deserve it?
The end result is an amazing price inflation ... and if you don't believe me, don't check with the department of lies and statistics, but just go into the supermarket and check what a loaf of bread, a pound of butter, a piece of your favorite cheese, some chocolate or a bottle of wine cost these days compared with 5 or 10 years ago. Or - just check your latest rates bill and compare it with the one you paid 10 years ago. It is amazing what happens if everybody is amazing and deserves these amazing salary rises.
While some age care workers no doubt are amazing, lets face it - as many of them are terrible and most are (as in any other profession) just average. Better lets adjust our salary scales to reality instead of allowing the warm and fuzzy to get away with us.
Wrong. The best staff will always stay, regardless of the fact that we are underpaid and undervalued. Because we are passionate about the job we do and we are committed to providing the best care we possibly can. The worst staff will also stay, because they need the money, and because nobody ever holds them accountable for their less than ideal performance/attitude/care.
Wrong again. We may not all be “amazing” but the vast majority of us are very good at what we do, and we give our job 100%. Your statement that “many are terrible and most are just average” is unsubstantiated and disrespectful, and says a lot more about you as a person than it does about us.Quote:
While some age care workers no doubt are amazing, lets face it - as many of them are terrible and most are (as in any other profession) just average.
True, but it is the residents I care for who provide me with my job satisfaction. They are the ones who make me feel valued and appreciated - every day. That feedback is the stuff I take home with me at the end of every shift, that makes me feel good about myself and the job I am doing.
Employer/management support and or appreciation, on the other hand, can be seriously lacking sometimes.
You seem to think you work in a quite unusual industry where the standards of normal human behaviour don't apply. Actually, many people think that about their industry, but unfortunately - they all are wrong with this assumption.
Look - I am sorry you took my generic comments personal and took out the sledgehammer before trying to understand my post. I won't hold it against any other age care worker, though :):
As well - I didn't say "many are terrible", I said "as many are terrible as there are outstanding". Any human behaviour comes in a statistical relevant number in Gauss curves. Have a look at them and you will understand what I meant.
This is true for any profession and has something to do with the laws of statistics ... unless you are a believer of the fairy tale that 95 % of all students perform "above average" (as a recent survey of students revealed), that more policemen (than the relevant average of the population) are honest and that more age care workers (than the relevant average of the population) are outstanding. I am sorry - but this is just a delusion.
Average - per definition - means 50% of any group are above and 50% are below. Any large enough group performs (in average) just average .... and any group does have some people doing an amazing job and as many people doing a terrible job.
Put enough people in any industry together and you will find out that the laws of statistics apply.
Ladies and Gentlemen could I respectively ask before this turns into another xxxxstorm. Sit back have a cuppa.
Think about this being a retirement sector stock and the difficulties some members have and are currently facing .
This is something that we all face going through life .
If you want a slanging match please take it into the political forum or off line .
Lets keep this on topic.
OK - I guess without defining the "outstandingness" or "terribleness" of age care workers are we obviously talking about a subjective assessment. Their are no statistical rules for subjective assessments (other that there is always a huge bias towards the positive).
Just remembering the time when in NZ Primary schools every child got at year end a certificate for outstanding achievement (not sure - maybe they still do that)? This obviously just redefines outstanding to the new average (or for the resident feline - median) ... but sure - it makes everybody "outstanding". If I use this definition, than I have to admit - all age care workers as well as everybody else is outstanding ... and average and median.
If we use however any objective measurement to measure human performance, than it will follow a normal distribution, as does intelligence, attitude, creativity and various human moods) - i.e. Gauss curve does apply. I can't see why age care workers would be exempt from the rules of maths. Can you?
You don't seem to realise that the median and the average would be the same if we assume normal distribution (as I did), which unfortunately is quite average ...
BTW - just wondering ... given that it is clearly not maths ... would the ability to survive as species be included in "anything and everything"? I heard Snow Leopards are nearly extinct ... :p, which obviously is a very sad story ... :crying:
wow talk about this thread going from the sublime to the ridiculous.
I really dont think this is a profitable line of discussion folks. Move along.
I met people as you describe, when My family member was in care. A personal touch and connection existed with the residents often despite the stretched resources, management demands, and no doubt their own Financial exigencies. A good manager with rapport with personnel did seem to bring about a more satisfied atmosphere, with patients, nurses and carers.
All the best to Beagle too. At the end of the day, you remember the great carers who had an especial connection with your family member. It makes such a difference to everyone.
Now, how about some discussion on the investment merits of OCA? I hold and reckon prospects are good.
:)
Attachment 11846
To deal with staff/resident ratio issue, if there is a something like occupants satisfaction survey from industry association would be good.
OCA only has 2 reserved land for future development, its debt ratio is 61.57%, so it needs to purchase more sections to match its ambitious plan.
The current SP is ok for long term, but I would not put all eggs into this one.
BlackPeter, I think you have fallen into a 'rules of maths' trap into which I have seen many highly competent and well educated people fall. I will use the intelligence test as an example as you can set an IQ test for people and derive numerical results. To do the same for 'attitude' and 'creativity' introduces a whole other level of debate into this argument, where I don't want to go!
Let's say you set out to measure the IQ of all of the care workers in NZ rest homes. Now before I go any further I am not suggesting that the competence or not of rest home workers should be judged on IQ. I am just using IQ as one human variable which has a track record of being possible to measure to illustrate my point.
The result of such an exercise will produce an average IQ for each rest home. If you then plot these individual averages on a linear scale you will get something that starts to look like a gaussian or as it is more commonly referred to 'normal distribution'. (actually I like the term 'gaussian distribution' better because normal has other meanings outside of statistics).
We expect this because of something called the 'central limit theorem':
"the average of many samples (observations) of a random variable with finite mean and variance is itself a random variable whose distribution converges to a normal distribution as the number of samples increases."
However, and here is the really important bit, this does not mean that the individual pieces of primary data (in this case the individual IQ score of each care worker in a particular rest home) form a gaussian distribution. It could be rectangular , triangular some other pattern or random. The 'central limit theorem' will follow even if the IQs of careworkers follow a rectangular distribution in one rest home, a triangular distribution in another and form a random distribution in another. The central limit theorem will see that a linear graph of averages converges to a gaussian distribution. But it says nothing at all about the distribution of IQ at any individual rest home.
So Tideman is right. You should not have assumed that the distribution of any particular human characteristic at any particular rest home is 'normal'.
SNOOPY
A care unit in a Christchurch retirement village has gone into lockdown after "several residents" began displaying symptoms of a respiratory illness.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-z...-symptoms.html
Privately owned. Scroll down for owners. https://thevillagepalms.co.nz/
Chances are it’s your usual winter coughs and colds or the flu. We usually have at least one resident with a cold at any given time. Unless someone has been into the home who has been overseas, or near someone who has, there is probably no need to panic. My GP was telling me just the other day, there are a lot of “bugs” around right now - par for the course for winter.
Red blood flooding the market tomorrow
sell of tomorrow?
They managed to cope last time and they will manage this time. By my estimations OCA broke even during the last quarter of the year when they were affected by the various stages of lockdown.
In simple terms if they're earning about 10 cps underlying this year another lockdown event of a similar magnitude, (if its gets that severe) would mean they will earn about 7 cps this year instead of 10 cps. There may well be irrational selling of some shares tomorrow but before anyone panics think of this. The American market is close to an all time record high despite there being 5 million cases there.
The Australian market is trucking along fine despite the problems in Victoria. OCA can break even during a lockdown because much of its revenue is from Government funded care and the sale of care suites will be unaffected as per last time. Its just three days at this stage and just in Auckland and OCA has facilities throughout N.Z.
buying DIP perhaps....
and some other stocks...hopefully ... been awaiting..
it shows that no border policy is going to keep this little beastie out for ever...
the family had a lot of connections across auckland.
Sweden got it almost right after all except retirement homes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oeAN...qmR8Z0a7JE490M
it might not be the last....huge border screening technologies will be required to keep it out.. good luck.. NZ will have to tech this up the ...many millions will have to be spent at the borders... every border..panic in auckland super markets already..
dollar dipping already...pacific links gone..
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/122...-covids-return
this has a huge link area...
I think hiring a few cruise ships and using them as quarantine facilities is the way to go.Not so easy to escape and easier to police
That is marvellous post Beagle. Somes it up well.
If it's the company fundamentals we are thinking of then longer term this is no worries.
If it's the short term share price we are thinking of then IMO this round won't be a fraction as bad as last time. Your points are excellent about overseas indexes setting a good example and we now have our own template of what share prices did last time.
This time round we will have all the sharsies guys leaping in supporting the price with great FOMO after making easy coin last time , they'll not want to miss out round 2.
Also last time we had a loose 300m of shares from MAQs recent sell down which are bedded in this time.
I personally can't see nearly the panic this time happening. Besides , NZ has been back at work 3 months now so the general (employed) population are probably quietly looking forward to a wee lockdown about now.
its the retails that will drop...the FOMO will be over on them..this is a short drop only. Unless ... no idea where it came from? yes right.... i think the family member knows exactly where they have been or they have come into contact will someone at the borders and that mean its on the lose and wild fire...
Cant see 3 days being enough to contain this outbreak. I think that it will be extended and could go up to 3 weeks. Could go downt to 80 cents.
massive sells coming on looks like about a 10% drop i guess
Back under a buck!Here we go again
I think the 3 days is just give them time to contact trace and hopefully find some connection to overseas travel somewhere. If they find that, it’s not community spread after all, and we will go back to normal. If they can’t find that evidence, the assumption will be that it’s community spread, and the levels may well increase/extend.
If its in this family then its community spread!I agree with bf,it will take longer than 3 days to sort
Damn! No spare cash...
Thanks for your kind words too Beagle and for putting the Oceania situ into perspective. Will have to sit this one out...
breaking news all rest homes going into lock down i believe
yes... at least buy something like KMD..... no dont!!!!
DISC: i have not bought OCA today.. KMD yes.
just placed an OCA.
5 screens up... 6th is threading up now...interface bindings connecting.