Hey baabaa, a question
The third Fibonacci ratio is .236 (or .764)
Do these have any significance (or even used) in TA?
If they a 76.4% retracement is at 140
And if it continues it's downside spiral Fibonacci would say 119 is important
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Hey baabaa, a question
The third Fibonacci ratio is .236 (or .764)
Do these have any significance (or even used) in TA?
If they a 76.4% retracement is at 140
And if it continues it's downside spiral Fibonacci would say 119 is important
There is debate on whether the Fib 76.4% or 78.6% is best, I think they are so close it doesn't make a lot of difference, and they turn up in Forex trading more than share trading. Nevertheless I use 78.6% on my charts and that is at 1.40 as far as my system goes (I chose the Aug 31 2012 spike low as the beginning of the measure). It's pretty close to the Sept 2013 close 1.35, but in between is the Mar 29 2013 high 1.54 which was hit 5 times before breakout on Oct 25 2013.
The thing about Moosies long walk is if he hadnt of decided to sell his DiL for a loss but held, he would have done very well.(Same goes for myself in regard to my large Chorus loss) however my large Chorus loss would be small in comparison to selling my Air holding atm, hence even a walk across the Aussie desert would be too short for me to consider such an option.:cool:
It is very disappointing to see management selling at these depressed level's. The whole scheme is excessive in my opinion. When I last looked at it there were over 40m shares outstanding under executive incentive schemes, the original one and the new updated version.
As I have pointed out to Tony Carter in the frank discussion I had with him earlier this year this is over 8% of the free market float of the company, (excluding Govt stake), so management selling will indeed have an impact on the SP because its a) usually material in the context of the days volume and b) sends the wrong signal to the market. Its perhaps worth noting that he has been buying in modest volume lately.
I will not buy when management are selling and haven't been buying in recent weeks. I won't be a counter party to them using their extremely generous incentive scheme as an ATM machine.
My estimated / projected amended NTA after the VAH sale is $1.55 as at 31 October 2016. AIR have on occasion bought shares back when it goes under NTA. Whether this is allowable within the present version of the constitution I haven't checked. We might as well use NTA as some sort of reference point now that we're not that far away from it.
History shows buying under NTA has proved to be a sound investment in the long run.
@Roger, interesting that your NTA projection is smack on a support line (daily chart basis, dividends excluded). Whether or not shareholders buy in to any of our FA or TA prognosis or possibilities, those AIR senior management seem hell bent on scalping their own personal profits, perhaps even forecasting another leg down to the 1.50's. Hard to ignore, it seems like prophecy almost.
In the past the market has shown scant regard for the NTA of AIR.
As mentioned a while ago you could buy $1.45 of AIR NTA for $0.75c in March 2009.
Between March 2008 and October 2013 it traded below NTA for all but one month (Dec 10/Jan 11) and often at a deep 'discount' to that NTA.
So DYOR and look at buying something else :rolleyes:.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Maybe we could run a poll to see how many are in the red and how many in the black with AIR. Arguably with 312 pages of threads the most posted, talked about, spruiked , stock on S/T, maybe thats an indicator for stocks to avoid. Disclose I'm in the red a little with a small parcel of shares, a few thousand.
It is possible that this 'shocking' Cathay Pacific announcement:
http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/list...0161012494.pdf
had a bearing on Thursday's decline in AIR.
It certainly did not help CP !
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
This is so destructive to the sp that I feel action needs to be taken
It will be part of their employment agreement which they probably had input .
So what can we do
?a motion of censure at the next agm
?notify the IRD-I am very tempted to do this.
I suspect it could be viewed as income and I would bet he is not planning to pay tax on it
[QUOTE=Paper Tiger;640641]It is possible that this 'shocking' Cathay Pacific announcement:
http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/list...0161012494.pdf
had a bearing on Thursday's decline in AIR.
It certainly did not help CP !
As I said in post 9347, macro events around the traps having the major affect on the share price not senior management cashing in some of their chips(Don't get me wrong, I'm not happy about it) Rising oil prices, the U.S elections, effects of increased competition ands the likes of the CP announcement above are the culprits.However Cathay does not operate in the same environment as Air and is hugely affected by the Chinese airlines, it also does not have a domestic monopoly like Air. Rising oil prices will be good for Air once a lot of the newly arrived competition hightail it out of here because of the viability of their less fuel efficient fleets and their bottom line return becomes not worth the effort.The effect of the increased competition will reduce Air profits, but the market has known this for some time so nothing new but remember no matter who brings the increase in tourists to NZ, Air is the only nation wide option they can choose to fly. The U.S election result is a thorn in the side of many stocks currently including Air.
Some good options you have outlined and as stop loss said, why give these people shares when they don't value those shares by maintaining a long term interest in the company? Some of these people probably already getting over the top renumeration before these other sweeteners are added.
Here is a link to the committee that would overview the remuneration. I note there are short and long term targets . However the sharemarket being for long term so not sure if share options or entitlements come with short term goals ?
https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/NZ/PD...d-Aug-2014.pdf
https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/...ement-2016.pdf
https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/board-committees
Jonathan Mason and Jan Dawson look like the ones that would deal with this .
Putting out an APB for Roger , any interest in firing off a letter to either of these or people you have had previous contact with raising a concern , that this scheme should be part of a "long term " incentive package .
The latest sell seems to be a relatively short timeframe ?
Cheers
S/L
Absolutely agree that executives cashing in their shares as soon as they get them is a disgrace. On the other hand - they would say that they are just clever - wouldn't they? Makes sense to sell a dropping stock.
However - re IRD ... I am quite sure that they need to pay tax for getting these shares in the first place.