That could be exciting eh Balance ......we do live in exciting times don't we
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Underwriter gets 3% and sub-underwriters get 2.5% normally?
So they can sell down to 59.5c and still break even.
Not so for the non-underwriters.
So they can sell shares now at 63c and pick up the shares cheaper to replace, if they want to.
Disclaimer : assuming terms of underwrite as written.
Gloves off - looks like sellers of volume now coming out to play at 65c.
Underwriters must be desperate to keep sp at at least 65c to encourage shareholders to take up issue.
Great opportunity for those who want out to give shares to them at 65c?
Hi Balance, you wouldn't down ramp - wouldn't you?
Funny thing is - I hardly see any support (highest bid 63 cents as we speak) - i.e. your supporting underwriters are either not yet up ... or not in existence. Maybe it is just that holders feel 65 cents is a fair price, but you never know ...
Market observation, BP, that's all.
Underwriters typically sub-underwrite to existing big shareholders who are going to be up for the rights issue anyway - that way the underwriters reduce their risk and the subunderwriters take some fees.
Has happened however where sub-underwriters decide not to take up their 'entitlement' when the sp looks like it could go down further so they sell first - effectively locking in a margin on the shares they are hit with post issue.
Seems my other response to this post was deleted by someone I ask the question what is the purpose and motivation of the poster here when you weigh it up with all his other previous posts? To me it seems an obvious downramp and encouragement for holders to sell out. Its a great shame that most of the well researched posters have now vacated this thread leaving it to be dominated by non holders,downrampers,cynics and the like. I wonder what the purpose of this thread now is as surely dedicated holders of the stock should make up a good portion of those posting on it.
I have PMs from others thanking me for providing an alternative perspective to the ramping trolls and their banal 'PEB can do no wrong' postings.
Notice how Edison (PEB's house puppy research) has not bothered to update its report for the actual results and the capital raising? I would take that up with PEB in the first instance if I were you.
Agree Newguy, Balance your constant "I told you so" has wrecked this thread. Unless you have something new to add please go somewhere else.
Points of order, Couta1, for the benefit of those who are new to the thread and are trying to get a handle on what has been going on :
1. Refer to post #13776. Investing is not only about fundamentals, but market dynamics. PEB sp in the next month will be driven principally by the rights issue so it is critical to know what is going on.
2. The holder posters could not have been more wrong when it comes to research and analysis of PEB in recent years - regurgitating PEB's hype and statements as research, just like Edison. And the sp and this capital raising tell the story.
3. FYI, a downramp happens when someone writes unsubstantiated comments and postings in an effort to drive a sp lower, to buy in. If you genuinely believe that to be true, what a great buying opportunity then! Trouble is, accusations of downramp have been made since PEB was above $1.00. As the sp dropped and more and more participants in the market realized PEB was not delivering on its own assertions and hype, the accusations of downramp become more strident and shrill.
Hope that is sueful for those who like some perspective on what has been happening with PEB.
Seriously?? I thought the thread was ruined by the inane parroting of press releases from the cheerleaders. As soon as there was any sign of an alternate opinion or some challenging points made the kiddies picked up their toys and went home.
I want to come here and find people challenging the decisions/assumptions I make as they make my ultimate decision more robust.
It seems that no one has an issue with posting anything bullish but dare to differ or make a valid point and it gets very personal. ................. facts are still.........
As far as I can read - no date for cash positive, no date for profitability just the glib - on our way to $100m.
If they triple sales each year it will take at least 4 1/2 years to get to that figure - which I would have no problem with. Great achievement. Will it be profitable? If so how profitable? Needs to be making around $18m+ pre tax to justify current share price (on say a PE 15) and over those 4 years - will cash burn go up until profitable? Current burn would see them need another $40m in funding. That has to seriously dilute share value as its pretty hard to put a more positive spin on things than the current one.
Looks like SP has a lot further to fall in near term.
guys--In the end you choose what you take on board--Just dont worry about the rest.
The SP seems to have found a range so its just steady as she goes--And dont forget this (CR)is an opportunity for both of you to to top up if your keen(or even buy more than you could from the CR if the SP dips below .61--there are always 2 sides to every coin.
Or you can go into the wilderness with Mac and Miner until things improve-your choice
I can relate though as there are times when I could not resist responding to some posts that seemed to make claims that didnt seem objective--(from the opposite side )
Guess we just need some middle ground for a while.
there have been some credible points made though that should be considered--you can always go back and dig up (one of) Macs many PEBs goals charts and see how the new developments tie in to the long range plan.
Its looking like there are some who are wondering whether to buy for the first time-(by the posts) so although some will never sell and some probably wouldnt consider buying at this stage--alot of posts are relevant.
Couts--This is a great chance to see if your ''averaging down'' theory will work for a second time.
Last year I bought at exactly the same SP as now (and it worked out well that time) Im not considering it now after weighing up the probabilities--Its hard to be optimistic about and increase in the SP with the .61 CR coming up--but thats just me.
You guys miught have good reasons to jump on board now--If you want to express the reasons why --go for it
Its about PEB rather than the posters isnt it?
Please give it up with this negative hype and be reasonable with your statements. Not everything has been wrong? The number of tests and revenue from sales is increasing rapidly (but obviously not enough for some) & they have independent evidence of a 'best of breed' test.
Yes Market penetration in the US is proving difficult but this is not unexpected and hence the need for more $$, yes this does depress the SP but does it mean the company is doomed to failure and all those holding should be lined up, laughed at then shot??
How about moving on and having a reasoned analysis of the competition because with the delay in market penetration this is the biggest risk I see on the horizon.
www.siennadiagnostics.com.au
- Has a reagent in the market that can be used by cytology labs to help ID bladder cancer cells
www.biotimeinc.com/oncocyte-corp
- Seem to be developing a very similar test to the current PEB but still in early dev..
For those interested in the science and the potential of the cancer testing market have a look at the latest video on the www.oncocyte.com were they discuss why they have entered this market.
Of course everything has not gone wrong.
The trial showing that CX is the best is an obvious positive (great product)
The incresae in sales % is a bit misleading though for 2 reasons --The numbers are small(it would obviusly make a bigger difference if it was x% of a large number.
And the biggie--It has taken a major cost to produce the increase in sales(many time more than the sales revenue)
I posted a company that could pose a serious competition as well but got not much response--probably more because the most knowledgeable were ''on vacation'' so Im not sure of how much of a real threat they are.
Id have to look back but I remember they were doing a large trial (like PEB)with results coming out around the same time as predicted KP results--but there may be more other hurdles for them --not sure.
They were a much bigger outfit which seems the most worry for me (marketing)in term of competition.
The best news that I could fanthom for PEB is an announcement that they have ''joined forces'' with someone who has that edge of market profile .
So what if they lose a bit of commison on 10 times the sales--thats my take at least.
Case in point is that Sienna has been covered a few times by posters - as far back as February this year. Repeating previous postings - 'Different strategy altogether to PEB - they are using a JV structure to launch into the US, avoiding the huge setup lab, admin and sales costs by tapping into the distribution (and credibility) of their JV partner. Read their FDA filing. Cost per test to be around US$150.
Is the $150USD test cost just the price of the re-agent from Sienna? Only guessing but as this is a tool for cytology labs to use the total cost of a cytology test on a urine sample to the insurer or client would be much higher?
Apologies skid if you had already posted that vid, new to the thread and have a bit of catching up to do.
No reason for an apology--it was just a link i posted ,but I dont think it had the video.
Good point on cost as some tests are sold as a test ,but must be processed in an independent lab(I believe Urovyson does this)so there is obviously the extra lab cost.
Do any of the products have endorsements from practicing NZ oncologists or urologists that also use the products?