I would say say that the lower SP means that interest from a third party in a takeover becomes more likely.
But the takeover itself does not become more likely. And the reason is that nobody is going to offer a price anywhere near what the board will accept.
And think about it...Sky will have $150M+ sitting in the bank by the end of the year once the property has sold. The quoted value for the entire business is only $280M - A third party would probably only offer $400M for the whole business now (23c/share).
Well, Sky will have ~40% of that offer price just in cash - and zero debt. So shareholders would effectively be selling the operations for $240M (not a lot of money for a company with 1M subs and FCF that will still be in the tens of millions each year even while they invest...)
I appreciate that Ogg would see any price above his average buy in as 'wonderful' because he just wants out now and has made a bit of a fool out of himself for the past 18 months predicting various takeovers and events.
But the long term investors and business owners...why would they want to sell out for so little now when Sky is about the be flush with cash and will have a lot of options moving forward?
Worst case is buybacks and dividends. Best case is they are able to use it for meaningful growth (possibly by making an acquisition of a business with a service that complements Sky's core offer).
Six weeks since Jarden got involved. Six weeks. And we have heard nothing. Whatever 'transaction' discussions have been had - it seems clear to me that The Board have rejected any proposals given (if, indeed, any formal proposals were given at all).