Well, yes, they can create unlimited new money, but if they overdo it they might not be able anymore to control what this money is worth. Unlimited ammunition, but the impact of this ammunition might dwindle.
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The dow was green an hour or so ago but its since turned sharply negative, could be a black monday incoming, yep ASX and NZX now falling.
Its pretty obvious the world going into recession now. the US 10 yr is absolutely plummeting .73% today , oil is testing big lows at $42 if that breaks it test lows of 28$ from 2016 and stock markets are all down big again. be expecting a test of recent lows next week maybe or even maybe today lol such is we dont really know with any certainty where it all end.
take time for the bear to play out average is a decline of 30% but most bears have fallen between 20 - 60% and have an average duration of 14 mths and 2yrs odd after to recover. remember markets were at elevated levels anyway to start with. One things certain now i dont think its going to be a v bottom.
So in a bear company profits will all start being downgraded next reporting season if not before and some companies will go bust and some companies dividends will decline but all companies share prices will decline. the virus is uncertain there is no quick recovery at this point in time
we pinned the top at 30k for dow for this cycle pretty well , early targets on the downside suggest still 10% ? before bear rally but need more data yet to confirm
Thanks for the overnite update.So thankful of a friend who made me sit up,take notice and get out of my bl'ase she'll be right attitude which helped make it easier pulling the pin and selling down on the 4th feb.Im guessing a wide U shaped recovery but just dont know how this contagion will play out atp.Good luck all.Batten down the hatches.
I'm picking an L shaped recovery. Whatever modest high conviction long positions I have are somewhat offset by other high conviction short positions so I have almost zero net position in the market, (less than 1% portfolio position), but I could still profit if my stock picking is good.
I got out mostly in very early February 2020 too. It feels very weird having very little in the way of commercial interests in the market but it has been very good for my blood pressure ! Stocking up the larder and battening down the hatches...
As good a place as any to learn..
Then ask here for what you do not understand.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortselling.asp
No recommendations... Learn to walk first..
Interested to hear Beagles thoughts first....
:t_up:
.^sc
Hi , as previously posted I use a CFD via CMC. Things to watch for , you are charged a holding cost , you are really short an instrument not the actual share .I don’t do anything too large , so if it takes a while to come to fruition I have enough margin to stay in the trade .( as long as I think I have it right)
I might trade shares each week , but might only short something 3 times a year when I have a strong feeling on something .
So in the past 12 months shorted AUD/USD as they were cutting rates and also due to economic effects of the fires . Also shorted NZD/USD as Aussie was cutting rates thought we would follow . Currently short AIR NZ, I don’t like to profit from other people’s misery . However possibly going to lose a considerable amount of money on a long term family trip later this year if we decide not to travel . So I see this as a hedge . Although booked way before the virus outbreak not sure if insurance will cover .