Blatantly obvious this second upgrade was coming...
Cherry ontop is the marketing costs being only 10m as opposed to 15m as most of us were thinking, it's looking very good for us holders.
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Blatantly obvious this second upgrade was coming...
Cherry ontop is the marketing costs being only 10m as opposed to 15m as most of us were thinking, it's looking very good for us holders.
My pick is they would scrape past $550m+ for the year...
Yes I vividly recall an Auckland ST meeting where rather than pontificate endlessly about the next big thing, see weed went around the pub talking to other patrons and handing out A2 flyers with all the fervor of a Pentecostal preacher ! Talk about giving a dog a bone to chew...you did a superb job mate, right down to the marrow !
Well not long to go until we see price with 4 handle...go you good thing.:t_up::D
http://www.fool.com.au/2017/06/16/wh...a-record-high/
sb9 you are in good company....Motley Fool now predicting SP to break $A 4.00
Can they get hold of enough A2 milk to actually cover the proposed growth ? There are only a certain amount of cows , after all right ? At what point does the proposed growth become hampered by the supply of actual milk ? and at what SP does that become over- priced . The PS is already looking at future growth , right.
Im not a farmer, so have no idea how long it takes to double your milking heard, but if the supply runs dry or stagnates, there will be a problem ! Better call the Vet and get some AI going on :-)
has just hit $4.00,...with all of 60 shares traded!!!
And there goes all the asks at $4! Someone just went gangbusters on them and took them all out.
I don't know the ins and outs,but I would guess a lot of farmers in the area would be interested in converting to get a better price,so could change herds in advance whilst still supplying to Fonterra,then change to synlait with a divided herd,not sure how that works but someone else on here might be able to shed some light.
Actually - I wondered about that as well. Did talk last week with the CFO of Synlait (was there on a factory tour with the NZSA) - and he said that they have at current much more A2 milk that they sell as A2 milk. They sell as much A2 as they can as A2 - and the rest just goes into the "regular milk" products. More demand for A2 would just increase their margin (given that they can sell if for a higher price ...).
He was a bit cagey when I asked him about the ratios between A2 / grass fed / regular ... but it certainly didn't sound that A2 supply would be an issue anytime soon.
Well, yes - converting a herd from A1 to A2 does take time (think up to 10 years. depending where you start), however the good news is that Synlait has at this stage a waiting lists of farmers who would like to move from Fonterra to them (there are a number of benefits for them to supply Synlait instead of Fonterra - like additional bonus for speciality milk, a bonus for sustainable farming and no need to invest into the milk processor (frees up capital when coming from Fonterra).
As per my last post it sounds as well that Synlait have at current more A2 milk than they can sell A2 branded.
By my calculations you're off by an order of magnitude...
See Weed must be a happy man!
Thanks for that additional info. It would be great to get some figures behind how much growth they can support with current/forecast production of A2.
https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/amazon...s14b-ck-204269
Whole foods is one of stockists of A2 milk in US being bought over by Amazon.
Latest article from Prof Keith Woodford..
https://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/...aki/#more-1696
Few relevant points I've copied out as below...
****
I shared with my Taranaki audience some thoughts about dairying of the future, but I only needed to look forward a few years to see an industry that will look very different to what we have now. To start with, the herds of the future will all be A2.
I have been promoting the notion of converting our herds to A2 for more than 10 years. It has been a bruising journey with both facts and ‘alternative facts’ brought forth in the debate. But in the long run, it can only end up one way.
It is only ten years ago that the shares of The a2 Milk Company (ATM) were worth about eight cents. As I write this on June 19 2017, the share value has climbed above $4. ATM now has a capital value approaching $3 billion, and is the darling of the New Zealand Stock Exchange.
This close-to-3 billion ATM share value reflects the value of products (primarily infant formula and fresh milk) coming from just 65 Synlait farms in New Zealand (for infant formula) plus perhaps another 35 ATM direct-supply farms in Australia, the UK and the USA (for fresh milk). In comparison, Fonterra has a market value of about $9 billion but that is from the milk from more than 10,000 farms.
Producing A2 milk, i.e. milk that is free of A1 beta-casein, is a breeding pathway open to any New Zealand farmer. Delaying the conversion only turns an opportunity into a profound risk.
There are some hundreds of New Zealand farmers who are on the conversion journey, and the big global semen companies tell me they are ready for a global rush of demand for A2 semen. But most New Zealand dairy farmers have believed the soothing messages from their processing companies and herd-improvement company LIC that it is not going to be a key issue. I expect to be writing a lot more about A2 again over coming months, with a pulse of new science in the pipeline.
****
Harbour locking in some profit?
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/260277.pdf
why would the chief Ex sell-down yesterday .
maybe scared a few people today . ??
I'm not sure if this has been discussed but I will ask the question anyway.
When does the Fresha Valley license end for distribution of A2 milk in NZ? I would like to think A2 will try to replicate what they have done in Australia with branded A2 milk and other products.
I also wonder who would package this for them, could Synlaits new Auckland plant have a bottling line? Would A2 go alone? Where are they going to get all the A2 milk supply from? I wonder if there have been farms converting over the last few years in anticipation of this.
Its probably not a big $ impact if they grow NZ but it would be nice to see their presence grow here.
Couple of new senior appointees buying on market...
https://nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/303045
https://nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/303044
This from ATM's FY2013 annual report.... so we should expect an update soon?
"The Company continued discussions with the sole non-exclusive licensee for a2TM brand fresh milk in New Zealandgiven our objective to become more involved in the the sales and marketing activities in this market. The term of thecurrent license runs until May 2017 and while we are keen to become more involved, the timing now rests with the licensee. "
Would love to see a2 milk in my supermarket,in fact havn't seen it anywhere. Be great to hear they are gearing up to stock the markets.
It's an interesting debate. Although it would be great to see stronger marketing in NZ. I suspect ATM has better priorities in other much bigger markets (such as China and USA.)
In terms of balancing A2 supply and demand as well as maximising returns, it may be better that most of their NZ supply is exported as IF?
And besides, why pick a fight with Frontera in NZ.........yet?
When it was here i tried it out; no big deal ; didn't notice anything except it went off quicker. Sun latte is the best imo , pasteurised but NOT homogenised. has anyone got conclusive scientific proof re the merits of A2? Doesn't affect the s/p thats for sure!
Suggest you DYOR. ATM's web site contains many links. This reference links you to just some of the research.
ATM is a bit like climate change.....for the believers there is ample research, for the sceptics there will never be enough research.
For this holder, ATM solved some digestive problems plus the green arrow showing a 600% plus gain is very easy on my stomach.
"ATM is a bit like climate change.....for the believers there is ample research, for the sceptics there will never be enough research." left field.
Great line,so true. OK point taken i won't be sceptical again if i haven't done the research. I think i did some time ago and found nothing conclusive .Time to look again sometime. Had a very good gain on ATM but sold for the above reasons; my loss. Fantastic gain for you left field :t_up: and glad it helps your health.
Apologies if this has been covered before as it is a couple of weeks old, but don't recall seeing it on here. A2 Milk wins its category in International Dairy awards - see article
http://www.foodbev.com/news/winners-...ards-revealed/
[QUOTE=Joshuatree;671160]When it was here i tried it out; no big deal ; didn't notice anything except it went off quicker. Sun latte is the best imo , pasteurised but NOT homogenised. has anyone got conclusive scientific proof re the merits of A2? Doesn't affect the s/p thats for sure![/QUOTEe
My understanding is that there is no conclusive scientific evidence so I'll be interested to read "the pulse of new science in the pipeline" as stated by Keith Woodford. Nevertheless, the bottom line is - if you're lactose intolerant or have an allergy to milk protein and A2 makes you feel better then you'll buy it. Congrats to share holders.
Disc. Scientist
This can only help A2 sales ...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/943...in-new-zealand
Across the ditch an industry related news, BAL is put under trading halt. The reason being their recent acquisition Camperdown's IF powder licence has been suspended by CNCA (CFDA regulatory body in China) overnight.
This further strengthens the brand image of A2 IF.
Goldman Sachs a SSH(again?)
Borrow and derivatives used a lot in the SSH whatever that implies
Price getting hammered down due to the trading halt on BAL, guilty by association, we've been here before.
There we've it...Bellamy's goes into voluntary suspension again until it sorts out the CNCA licence suspensions issues. Back to square 1, hmmmmm....
ATM’s robust outperformance over the last 2-yrs has been earnings upgrade driven,” said Deutsche Bank, “looking forward, we see potential for this to continue with our analysis
of ATM’s brand interest in its key end market China remaining strong.”
What does the investment bank see going on in China that’s firming the company’s foothold? Four reasons:
1. Rising wealth levels
2. Relaxation of single child policy
3. A preference for imported product
4. Alignment to growing distribution channels (e.g. online and MBS)
The analysts do, however, leave a caveat due to risk hovering over an infamous channel contributing to “exponential” growth in the company’s infant formula range: the entreprenerual Chinese ‘diagiou’
“This channel remains an open question whether it will see stronger regulatory impost to close the potential tax leakage and lift traceability.”
Optimistic from Deutsche - price target of $5 seems to have kicked it off again... I for one could care less what brokers have to say, but I sure love to see them back a pick or two.
Well folks, BAL comes out of voluntary suspension and resumes trading today across the ditch on ASX. Could be an interesting day as it unfolds...lets wait and see.
I've got to eat some humble pie here with this share, it had been on my radar for a while and I got really close to buying in about a year ago when it was around $2. At this point though, I thought the whole A2 thing was a gimmick and that the valuation at that point was just pure hype and speculation. The earnings/revenue growth we have seen in the past 12 months had not occurred so I thought the share price didn't support the hype. How wrong was I?
Congratulations to all the shareholders for making such a health gain! Still lamenting getting in at this price. A PE of almost 50 is eye watering at the moment.
Good luck to all the holders!
Nice SP movements the last few days. Bollinger bands getting squeezed. More upside ahead?
Over in Hot Copper the attached pics seem to typify ATM selling all it can supply in Aus supermarkets, while other brands languish.
Attachment 9027
Attachment 9028
What is also telling in the pics is that ATM retailing at $27 has sold out, while other competitors on special at $20 remain unsold. Clearly consumers perceive benefits from ATM and are willing to pay a premium. Exciting times predicted ahead when ATM's doubling of production takes hold in October.
Coutts will be happily playing on Coronet ski field and oblivious to the fact that he's cleaning up. I know he recently backed up the truck and trailer unit on this one. He's getting more cunning these days, not like the days of old where he's load up on speculative mutts he now chooses quality companies. Well done mate.
Comparative to wet milk , infant formula has margins dreams are made of.
A2 MILK COMPANY - NZ FY13A FY14A FY15A FY16A FY17F* OPERATING REVENUES GENERATED - NZDm 94.5 110.8 155.1 352.8 546.0* Cost of goods sold as a proportion of product trading revenues 64.30% 64.00% 64.80% 57.20% 52.00% Cost of promotional marketing as a proportion of trading revenues 4.80% 8.90% 9.40% 10.30% 10.00% Cost of logistics/shipping & freight as a proportion of trading revenues 7.90% 7.20% 6.00% 4.40% 4.00% Cost of corporate as a percentage of trading revenues 10.70% 15.00% 15.30% 11.40% 10.00%
Net margin difference on previous Y
n/a
(7.40%)
(0.40%)
12.20%
7.30%
OPERATING EXPENSES INCURRED - NZDm
84.8
106.6
151.0
297.3
428.6
I notice we are now main stream at the Newtown Countdown in Wellington with four high double depth crates of A2 centre stage in the chilled milk isle, brilliant best I have seen. Following must be growing around here. A2 availability at this store was the reason I started shopping here a long time ago.
However in passing noticed the new Beachlands Countdown in Auckland had none, do we have distribution issues up there?
Gunny
$4.24 ALL TIME HIGT , there must be an major update coming, when is the next ann due, are we in for a rerating ?
After buying a truck load at 50c I sold half of them at $1.60 early last year. Better check what I did with the money and it better be good.
Yep I've been wondering what's happening with the love of my life today! No news so maybe just the HC bods exciting themselves again?
Sold 20K of my 50c pile at 2.25 because I couldn't see them going much higher and wanted to lock some profit in. And told the wife it wasn't worth putting her 50K into ATM then as there was now too much downside! Another great call.............Now I just go along for the ride and enjoy every 1c movement and think how my favourite saying is so applicable to my investing....
"Luck beats skill any day".....
Yeap, everyone needs a bit of luck. The hound has a few of these squirreled away in the corner of his kennel but with the benefit of hindsight, definitly not enough !
That's correct Beagle, hindsight is wonderful thins isn't it....luckily I think I've added enough through the years to keep me happy....looking at current trend bit tempting though to lock in some profits, but part of me says story just gaining traction so let's wait and see,
Wow what a start to the day! :eek2: :) It will be interesting to see what happens when ASX trading commences.
Yeah, if he checks on ski field, better keep the balance on those slippery slopes as the way price going he's sure to loose balance :)
But seriously something's brewing in the background. Another theory could be with Amazon buying up Whole Foods who stock A2 milk in US and also Amazon looking to buy up good growth businesses across globe, may be just may be this lil beauty is on their radar....
Coutts told me this is a $10 stock in 2020 before he left for his trip (after backing up the truck). I reckon he might have the year wrong the way this is going :)
Nice to have Coutt's confirmation although I suspect a SP of $10 will happen sooner than 2020. If sales growth at the moment is impressive, imagine what can happen when powdered milk production doubles from Oct this year.
I've seen the speculation of an Amazon buy-out, and believe it is just that - speculation. I for one would hate to see ATM disappear into foreign ownership...... that is, unless it is sold tomorrow for a SP of $10! ;)
$4.50 Kiwi !!
Only 50c left for my first ever 10-bagger :)
Awesome. Got in at 64c...that 10-bagger might be a wee way off...
Has no one noticed all the cash settled equity swaps by the Goldman Sachs Group Inc posted under the becoming a substantial holder on the 7th July? Then you better take a look. Also read the following...
http://www.mondaq.com/australia/x/33...s+in+Takeovers
I understand a likely reason for the recent surge in ATM is a just released 18 page report on ATM by Macquarie (which I have not seen) but which apparently has the title. "The A2 Milk Co..... A Path to $8.00"
Love those sentiments!!
Zeepers!!!! not for fainted this one, big gyrations on the daily chart, happy to watch the fun from side-line though.
New all time high at $4.55 on strong buying whatsup ?
I feel like I have missed the boat on this. I nearly bought in at $1.80 and then there was a big advance and so I missed out and just kept watching. Now i feel like it's too dear for me. I'm really mainly into dividend stocks but who can deny a good profit opportunity.
Some stocks look always dear ... but just keep rising. Obviously - this is unless you bought them 2 years ago for 60 cents;) (discl: wish I had, but didn't either); BTW - If you look into 4 traders - experts expect for this and the coming years fast rising dividends: 2017 - 1 cent, 2018 - 6 cents, 2019 - 9 cents;
http://www.4-traders.com/A2-MILK-COM...22/financials/
Obviously - all stocks carry risk, but at this stage I feel with ATM that the potential rewards are greater than the risks;
Discl: holding;
https://www.9now.com.au/a-current-af...formula-frenzy
The above video coverage is going viral over on HC as to how to hot the IF market is and in particular A2 with few snippets from Peter Nathan.
For those whose IP address locks them out
https://twitter.com/acurrentaffair9?lang=en
Scroll down 3 or 4 articles...
https://nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/305037
Another step closer to CFDA registration....just matter of time before they get the approval.
"Liquid gold"
gutted..sold at $2.80..should bought back when it was $2.44 but kept telling myself it was overpriced.....grrrgrrrr
yes, thanks for that link. Great day for the stock.
Yes, I think the market is pricing in the CFDA approval and also surge in A2 brand image.
The current rerating might take it close to $5 mark before the results are out on 23rd Aug.
Another thing to note is lower % of shorting overs past 4 to 5 trading days, which I presume is due to shorters taking into account the likelihood of a dividend to be announced as mentioned by Geoff in one of earlier presentations last year.
And what's left after all this is the elephant in the room "Pending Lion case" and if that goes A2's way (most likely it'll), then all external constraints removed and increased supply from Synlait should help the company realise its true potential in earnings.
As always DYOR.
Wow I'm blown away by the performance of this stock and I've really missed the boat selling out. Question now is if is this is a risky decision to buy back at this price? Surely there'll be a pull back at some point, but I've been thinking that since $3. It really is seeming unstoppable at this point.
As long as A2M keeps selling and the share price keeps going up, who cares!!
Seriously, the beauty of the A2M business model is that its milk supplies are a mix of sources (nicely spreading risks while allowing local 'ownership' of the brand.) E.g. Fresh milk comes from the country it is operating in e.g. USA, Aust, UK etc however as I understand it Synlait is the supplier of A2's infant formula to Aust, Asia and China.
I had a colleague who left us to work for A2 Milk in 2001. Totally, unashamedly a NZ success story.
I've had ATM on my watch list since it was about 80 cents and have always been too wary to make a purchase. Don't know why, as I've taken a few (mostly successful) punts over the years.
I definitely cant pluck up the courage to buy at the current price - but maybe I'll be regretting that in another year too.
I asked myself the hard question yesterday. Where do I see the SP in five years time ? (Probably where it is now after a 2 or 3:1 split) so I took a large brave pill and topped up some more. Did the same with HBL too....might have overdone it on the brave pills and maybe get my comeuppance with a short term pullback but long term I'm pretty sure I'm following the breadcrumbs to future profits.
https://www.blackmores.com.au/produc...stress-formula Good stuff when you're coping with stress or extra work pressure or want to feel a bit braver or all three factors.
Rating BBB (Beagles best bravepill) :)
I sold out today and will now probably suffer sellers remorse.
I bought at 50 cents and sold at 68 cents...keep asking my self the same question...and I had 160,000 as well...keep kicking myself....all I wanted was exposure to dairy but fonterra had it sown up......then I look at at Xerox...bought at 75 cents...only cos Sam Morgan bought sum..and sold at 1dollar 50...what a guru..doubled me money in 6 weeks...im still black and blue from the kicking I've given myself...why...why ..why...can only laugh an move on..lol
Easy with the benefit of hindsight Ziggy to kick oursleves for selling too early. But it can just as easily go the other way and that feels even worse. I bought into the Wynyard hype and was reassured by Sam Morgan buying a big chunk. Duh! I am still kicking myself for not selling :(