Originally Posted by
BlackPeter
As usual, it depends on a future nobody can predict.
For starters: Eroad always promised growth, but they have a solid track record of not delivering. This is a quite important hint for any potential investor.
After more than 10 years and several restarts which all fizzled out before they even reached cruising level and after mainly delivering losses it is hard to say what they really might be worth.
Looking at their earnings (eh - losses) - what's the worth of a quite reliable loss generator?
Looking at their "growth": quite lame for a start up, and this is just looking at revenue growth. Earnings growth is an indicator you better don't track with them, unless you like negative numbers.
Looking at their potential earnings after stopping the bleeding coming from paying for an US expansion only delivering losses: they probably do have some value based on their NZ / AU business, but I doubt it would be significantly more than the takeover offer.
Quite possibly they have some bits and pieces a competitor might be able to usefully integrate into their own system, but hard to value without in depth due diligence and without knowing what the competitor really might need. As well - given that potential suitors are not really queuing up, why should the only (potential and not yet fully committed) candidate offer to pay top dollars for taking a quite significant risk?
Sure - one can always hope for this spaceship to land on the square and green men emerging prepared to pay top dollars, but otherwise - this offer might be the "get out of jail card" for investors .. and who knows, it might be the last opportunity.