Hi Mac.
I've read both articles...both say trust me I know what I'm doing (quote Sledgehammer (old TV series)......Gary Jakacky doesn't seem to grasp the secular theory concept as he runs off target with macro and micro events to justify the secular movement..instead of the theory itself..
Jeff Saut..seem to know little more about secular stuff...but he too has fallen short...with no analytical reasons either..could be he doesn't want to lose his readers with the complex stuf....He mentions there are others out there that believed the Secular Bear was killed off by the nasty cyclic grizzly bear.....These claims have been argued out over the last 2 years and was put to bed..It seems Jeff either don't follow it to its outcome or he is in denial due to the "won't say die" attitude of the DOW and S&P500 that seems to want go up forever....
Both obviously haven't considered the fact that secular bear characteristic flat tops trading ranges is it's behaviour but exemptions do occur e.g AORDS 2003 -2007 freakish bull run...(see here)
Secular bear killed off in AORDs???? was debated by Winner and I a few month back...we needed more time to get more results to be sure....
The Wall St secular bear is alive and well and is tracking slowly downwards from the 2007 Exurbant heights...Time is not the factor with Secular theory ..it is distance traveled for the annualised PE Ratio to reach it reversal points it could 3 years or 20+ years or anything in between
What everyone must remember including those two authors are
1.....Cyclic market reversals are measured by the Index (share) price trends
2.....Secular reversals are measured by the "annualised" PE Ratio trends...Price has nothing to do with it.. There are examples of a secular bear market starting up during a cyclic bull market
3.....Research has proved there is no difference in the growth of the economy (GDP GNP) during either Equities secular bull or Bear Market.
4.....Different secular investment strategies are needed....Buy and Hold (sailing) works the best during a secular bull markets but terrible during the secular bear where active cyclic buying and selling(rowing) is the best Strategy.....Pension/insurance/superfunds funds are negatively affected by secular bears
The ending of a secular bear occurs when the annualised PE Ratio falls to below 10 stays under 10 for a length of time (not a normal PE Ratio spike as happened in 2008/09) then the secular bear ends when the annualised PE Ratio breaks upward above 10
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...markets/page20
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...markets/page15
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...markets/page19