I'm getting closer to backing up the truck..... Couta would understand my priorities having just dropped 10k on some life ski passes for mt ruapehu so perhaps a little less itchy on the trigger finger for the minute.
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I'm getting closer to backing up the truck..... Couta would understand my priorities having just dropped 10k on some life ski passes for mt ruapehu so perhaps a little less itchy on the trigger finger for the minute.
Nice one wd, my endearment of late to ski the South Island fields stopped me from buying one plus being the only snow sports lover in the family at this point in time. My last Air divvy will pay for a few life times worth of skiing but I just need to get back to $2.29 to really enjoy that fact, my wife is helping by flying to the S.I at least once every week of the year now in her new job.
Part of it for us was being able to transfer to the kids in 10 years time otherwise I wouldn't have worried either. What a great wife mate, those queenstown fields be seeing a bit of you then. I really enjoyed Cardrona - pity I wasn't there longer and we could have done a few runs, another time.
Awesome Stoploss, maybe meet you on the pitch next year :)
Just done my part for you guys.....booked PE return to HK for $2,400.
I'm taking the family to aussie next month and had a free upgrade to use so put in for the 'one up' for the wife and three kids so definitely doing my part :p
offtopic: are you not worried about ruapehu ski operator going into receivership? I checked out the last 5 years annual report and it seem they are struggling with declining numbers year on year.
Balance sheet looks healthy currently but they got some big capex required that they been putting off for years.
Hadn't given it a lot of thought to be honest, they are funding the capex with the life passes which I guess reduces the season pass numbers and income. Nothing is guaranteed and its been a pretty average season this year with both school holidays less than ideal with limited snow cover and bad weather but being the only ski fields of substance in the north island demand will always be there. I would however like to see a shake up in the board as I think a lot of the issues come down to how its being run by some......
Back on topic - I think AIR will close at $1.78 today
With near two thirds of the NZ population living in the NI they have the numbers, but the company let's itself down on many levels including its overpaid incompetent board. The aim now is to attract more overseas snow sports lovers to the mountain as an alternative to the likes of Q/town but that's a tough ask due to the isolation of the place, lack of amenities in the area etc. Any extra tourists they can attract will no doubt be good for Air though.
Wouldn't surprise me that come January/February AIR will come out and say "FY17 NPBT is likely to be at the lower end of previous guidance of $400-$600"
Wouldn't be as bad as a revised guidance range of $300m-$500m would it
Good to think ahead - that's my theory and planning accordingly
Topped up at $1.79 yesterday for an ave now of $2.10. I see them maintaining the 20c divi for at least the next 2 years - don't think anyone can guarantee anything beyond then but Air with there young fleet and high operating cashflow (low capex) from FY18/19 is better placed than most, if not all, their competitors to compete especially if Oil goes back to US70-80 a barrell.
Yes as discussed by e.mail that's definitely the risk. Downgrades tend to come in three's. We had the downgrade in May at the so called investor day briefing, the official downgrade at the time of the annual result with a wide range, (far better than no range as to the best of my knowledge neither VAH or QAN are brave enough to even issue a forecast or a range,.... haven't looked recently so don't take that as gospel), but the risk is definitely there of an indication towards one end of the range or the other and I think looking at the heat of the competition lately and pricing the risk is to the downside. In recent weeks I have downgraded my thinking from the mid point of the forecast range $500m where the analysts are at to the lower end.
I tend to agree with you mate. As noted above consensus analyst view is just on $500m before tax and their view is the shares are worth $2.20 if they can hit that target.
I think its clear the market thinks this is unlikely at this point, hence the current price.
I don't think the "opening specials" by new entrants will last indefinitely so FY17 or FY18 could be the bottom of this cycle.