Well put and agree
A couple of posters should reflect on some of the stuff they posted last night
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I think Air NZ will still be flying passengers around the world in 10 years time and making money doing it
Wonder what share price will be in 10 years time?
We are in a very similar mindset WD the only difference is that with the one share we took a punt in I got out,but that still allows getting back at a lower price (If I bought back in at a drop of X amount,id be even, -whether I would do that is another thing) so in a way its speculating without being in the Share--like gambling with lost opportunity.
I think in answer to your earlier question about when is it convincing the TA folks would say (to put it simply,when it reverses from lower highs and lower lows---to higher highs and higher lows.)
Aside from the day it raced up ,its been following a pretty similar pattern with Friday no exception.
The main reason I departed is that A-I deveated from basic strategy,and tried my luck and B-this share is such a firecracker that Id rather gamble with lost opportunity than capital or if I took my own advice -not gamble at all--depends on whether I turn out to be a slow learner:)
Agree 100%. Some need to ask themselves why they think its there place to comment on or critique the ability of other posters.
Some perspective for holders - There's always sunshine after rain. Obviously while uncertainty hangs over AIR regarding the Australian gorilla on their back its going to be tough to gain altitude. I think the market has basically written off the value of their VAH stake so any reasonable solution could see a meaningful bounce.
You made a really good post a while back Winner wherein you asked when the SP was $3.00 is this as good as it get's and risks to the downside appear greater than the upside. Let me return the favour, is this close to as bad as it gets, risks to the upside now significantly outweighing the risks to the downside ?
I see consensus forecast dividends for the foreseeable future have barely changed so for the many people who bough as a long term investment, what's really changed ? I think we all knew in our hearts FY17 was going to be a little less than FY16 as the full year's effect of new competition set in. Consensus analyst forecast for FY17 is $758m before tax down from $839m this year. Hardly falling off the edge of a cliff is it !
I absolutely agree with AIR's management in terms of their strategic direction of getting out of VAH, (might take them longer than they'd like but who's to say one way or the other whether a deal isn't imminent ?), and perhaps even more importantly growing capacity in a disciplined manner in line with the tourism growth rate. It appears regional demand within N.Z. is in better shape than Australia and the relative tourism growth rates need to be considered in the bigger picture too. Australia 8% and N.Z. 10%. Record migration to N.Z. is another strong macro economic factor as new residents travel and their friends and extended family come to visit. Their way of expanding using revenue sharing methodology and getting other partners to invest because they have skin in the game is well thought out too IMO.
No, your not so wrong,nor is it wrong to say its fair value is less--lets face it ..the jurys out-(and even if the fair value is more or less,the SP could do just the opposite --I think the main point is that we dont know at this stage---There fore we should be taking alot of things with a grain of salt.
My example of possible problems was certainly not a definite prediction in any form--it was just to add to the mix(It was really in response to the 'sheeple'' comments which imply that those that are selling are idiots.(ok,most agree some responses were a bit much,but i think it may have come from the fact that such absolute statements were coming from those who were losing atm,ok..on paper) ..point is ,we just dont know--it even appears to be a close one for the TA ers.
RE Couts--Hes had some wins and the consistant remark is, I believe not correct as (if memory serves)he had sold out of AIR when it was above $3 and bought back in at a lower price--that worked a treat for those who did that the 2-3 times before, when it then bounced--just got caught this time (as did many) --credit has to be given to Hoop who did warn against the damage if it broke the resistance this time around (3rd try?)of 2.70