At the rate things are going WHS may be down to 2.20 very soon ;)
at those levels I may happily volunteer to carry extra baskets of bread for Beagle :)
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At the rate things are going WHS may be down to 2.20 very soon ;)
at those levels I may happily volunteer to carry extra baskets of bread for Beagle :)
One of the most confusing things about the Bible is how the many different translations can be so different as to require almost a review of many to ascertain the real meaning. Fortunately we have the internet now which makes it a bit easier and the Bible hub, see https://biblehub.com/ecclesiastes/11-1.htm
The concept that the land should have a fallow year is alluded too at points in the Bible, not at great length but Ecclesiastes 3:1-13 is an very interesting read. My sense is that this is the right time for me to have a very defensive portfolio and v13 and that I should eat and drink and enjoy the fruits of my labours for these are gifts from God.
Couple of famous sayings on the US markets spring to mind - As goes January, so goes the rest of the year (apparently has an 86% likelihood of being correct) Close to the worst January ever.
Don't fight the Fed. Obviously its not just the Fed and central bank stimulus around the world is likely to be wound back at considerable pace this year.
We've had an extraordinary 12 year run in the markets fueled off the back of cheap and easy money and more recently vast amounts of money printing and central bank stimulus. My sense is the tide has turned and its going to be a lot harder from here generating decent returns and 2022 is quite likely to be a fallow year.
Not much in here about WHS so I suppose I better say something to keep this on topic. I am increasing certain that last year was a one-off and themarket.com will struggle to get any traction no matter how much investment Nick throws at it.
There will be a time to sow again in due course but I am extremely defensive with my portfolio settings at present and it feels right for me and i feel very content with portfolio returns in recent years. That said I am pretty close to full time retirement so what's right for others who are younger or those with a higher risk appetite may be the exact opposite.
Costco opening soon https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...S5QURYH7GTDAI/ Paywalled. Doubt it will make much, if any difference to WHS but it won't help sentiment.
I try to keep religion out of these threads ... and obviously, the bible has absolutely nothing to do with the fortunes of the Warehouse - I am not even sure, whether they sell this book, do they?
The January prophecy on the other hand (while more appropriate for the generic threads) might sort of impact on the warehouse share price as well, if it would hold any water. However - it doesn't. Somebody less lazy than me even put in the work to check:
from: https://www.evidenceinvestor.com/as-...goes-the-year/Quote:
As goes January, so goes the rest of the year?
To determine if this is wisdom or just another of Wall Street’s myths (like sell in May and go away) or fact-based advice, we go to our trusty videotape and examine returns for each January beginning in 1950 to see if a negative January reliably predicted a negative performance the rest of the year. Over this period there were 28 years in which January produced a negative return for the S&P 500. The average loss for the month in those 28 years was 3.6 percent. However, over those 28 years, the average return over the following 11 months was 5.4 percent. Clearly, it is a myth that as goes January, so goes the rest of the year.
So - what do we know about the Warehouse?
Well, we do know, that it's SP dropped in January - as all other retail stock did as well. On a two year comparison it performed as well as the much feared and praised Kogan with its big ape and it did even better than HLG with its lightly clad ladies ... Funny that - who is down ramping the other low performers? Somehow it does not feel fair that they all beat up the same stock, but hey - here we go.
We do know as well that all above mentioned (and others as well) retail stock are currently in a downtrend ... no matter how you measure that. The three companies I happened to mention are all below the MA100, the MA200 and the MA400 - i.e. the falling knife saying applies (even if its not from the bible). On the other hand - none of these companies is likely to bite the dust anytime soon, and any retailer with a sensible internet selling strategy will in my view do well over the next six months or so (and longer). While the WHS is not an internet star ... their internet presence did significantly improve in the last six months or so.
We don't know how consumer behaviour will develop, however - customers will always need cheap and reasonable quality clothing, a replacement of breaking house hold items, office and back to school stuff, home electronics and more. World will not end to turn and actually - Most countries are currently at peak Omicron or beyond ... and hey, while we are dragging the chain ... we will be there in 4 to 6 weeks as well.
So what's the big deal? Sure - some traders here are still trying to talk the stock down ... and hey, they may or may not have a bit more success. Hype can be strong but it is always volatile. If you don't know what I mean, have a look at what some of the people talking the stock currently down said three or six months ago about the Warehouse. Good news however: hype is cyclical :p;
Interesting observation: KMD (another of these lousy retailers), as well as HLG and KGN (to a lower degree) started to move upwards over the last couple of days. WHS looks like bottoming out. Just a breather? I don't know, but fundamentally I don't see anything which should push retail for a long time into the doldrums.
Another of these wise (and true) sayings which is not in the good book: Markets are forward looking :p ;
AS MR B has stated and lets keep God out of markets since they are run by computer chips, rising prices can influence retail spending.
Some sources say inflation pressure will abate in 2023 but in the mean time if petrol keep going higher and everything including tooth brush's and bathroom stuff goes up along with food, milk ect... its enough to take the cream off the top and thats why the momentum can over take and selling begets selling.
From CraigsQuote:
Following the WHS trading update last month the stock has dropped 24% and the shares are now off $1 since (from $4) since Carling’s detailed note of 1 November where he moved to Underweight. WHS is now trading on a FY23 PE of 10.8x (inline with its 3 year pre-COVID average) and at a slight discount to Carling’s revised TP of $3.30 (-8% reflecting tweaks to WACC). Carling notes the outlook for retail remains uncertain with various headwinds (COVID, wage inflation, consumer sentiment from rate hikes, ongoing supply chain issues) remaining but this is now largely in the price as WHS earnings rebase post heightened domestic consumption through the peak of the pandemic.
Man, witnessing (can I say that) the SP fall below the 3 buck threshold yesterday was a small worry... almost sold. Capitulation. Price lifted strongly
yes its staging counter attack but for how long?
I dont mind selling at a loss if i am moving to another investment i think will perform better. I try to view it as what can this 'dollar' do for me today. Not what has it done for me in the past.
My investment spreadsheet doesnt really track returns. I dont use sharesight. At the end of each year I add up the sum of my investments + dividends - fees and subtract it from what i started the year with and hope I have beat the nzx50 or KFL.
WHS share price up 5.3% today .... almost as much as Mainfreight :confused: