$1.14 is an excellent price, I'm sure there are many like myself holding at a higher entry price and were still happy:cool:
Printable View
The criticism is water off a ducks back to me. Fact is I called it right as fully valued at $1.32 when dairy was more robust earlier in the year and on balance, (and I will put this is bold as some seemed to have missed me making this point before) seeing as HNZ have only now confirmed sharemilker loan exposure is only 6.6% of their dairy loan book) their exposure to the highest risk sector of dairy is modest.
I stand by earlier comments that there will be serious losses in the dairy loan book but for those that can't work the numbers let me help you.
Since selling at $1.32 a 20 cent reduction in SP equates to a reduction in market capitalisation of $94m. By my judgement that's enough taking into account all the challenges the company now faces in regard to their most at risk parts of the loan book, including dairy and unsecured lending. No backflip folks, just an acceptance with the new information HNZ posted yesterday including their ability to make $48m after doubling their loan provisioning to $12m for the year that the company can make its way through the dairy trough and the wiping of $94m off their market cap is sufficient for me to consider them to be again fair value, as opposed to over-valued when they were higher.
Some have kept the faith and I have worked the over-valued situation on HNZ and re-deployed those funds for the last few months into SCL which is up 25% while contemporaneously avoiding a 15% decline in HNZ's SP. Sensible, pragmatic and profitable investing I would have thought. Disc: I still own Scales.
P.S. I was aware of the dairy futures price when buying back in yesterday.
The world is happy place again, dairy price moving up, gentailers got good management plans, apples taste lot better, tourism booming...the list goes on...
Thanks mate. There's no harm in selling something you think is over-valued and buying back in later after a big fall. I did the same with GNE, selling at $2.30, (and posting my reasons for doing so) and got back in very recently at $1.70.
Nothing in the rule book that says you have to stay wedded to a company through thick and thin :)
Glad I bought another chunk $1.10 last week, all good
Nothing in the rule book that says you have to stay wedded to a company through thick and thin :)
Yes I suspect now is a good time to invest in HNZ looking through the current business cycle to better times ahead.[/QUOTE]
We already knew that Roger what took you so long;) .Over 100 down ramps later;)