Originally Posted by
Beagle
Yes I did. See post #6118 (last sentence above). Not explicitly said by them that the last quarter was a loss but they did keep referencing 9 months so the overall sense is this is a very satisfactory result for what ostensibly amounts to 9 months of profitable operations.
Note change of balance date next year to 31 March 2021 (ten months next year). They expect their 217 new units to be completed within that 10 month period. My VERY PRELIMINARY thinking is FY21 will be in the range of $50-55m for the ten month period, (annualised rate of approx. $60-66m). I expect annualised underlying earnings of circa 10 cps. Forward PE at $1.00 is about 10.
Makes for an interesting comparison with my estimate of forward underlying PE for SUM of 19-20 and ARV, (premilitary thinking 15-16).
OCA is a slow burner but has reached the point of inflection where ~ 50% of its units are premium and I always said that was the right time to invest for the long term. As they roll out the remaining 20% of premium care suites, beds and premium apartments and start to generate recurring DMF revenues from the ORA model I think we can look forward to steady growth in the years ahead.
Steady growth does not normally go with a forward PE of just 10, especially in this sort of ultra low interest rate environment when even a no growth stock should command a PE of at least 11.5 in my opinion.
I remain comfortable with my 1 year price target of $1.38. Happy long term holder. OCA is being priced as a no growth stock...time will tell if this is correct or not but I think the pathway to profit growth is clear enough to see in the years ahead.