Hope so mate
I have been wrong for the last two years saying 5000 by Xmas
This year maybe?
You would have thought that a decent load of reinvested dividends would have got I ther by now, but alas my forecast was tong ...twice
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That's a shame.
Maybe it is the terminology used but that abbreviated presentation supports a lot of what both you and hoop are saying, which is almost the same anyway.
Whip posted (you sort of agreed?) - Annecdotal and empirical evidence shows that the Stock Market does best (on average) when inflation is moderate (i..e around 2% - 3%) however bull markets can occur in both high inflationary and deflationary environments.
Doesn't the Y-curve thing on his chart on slide 21 support that statement, esp if you think about the cyclical behaviour of the PE ratio
Maybe Hoop can explain it better
Turmeric, you a Dr yet?
Hope your thesis isn't on the relationship between stock markets and inflation. If so I had better stop arguing with you eh
Or did you just concentrate on mundane things like business cycles?
Just curious
So the payroll numbers were weak, a disaster really, much weaker than moosie would have expected anyway after the previous months number that was an anomaly
As you pointed out turmeric (at least the inverse of what you said) the weak job numbers is good news and the US markets rally strongly.
I take heart from ths guy . “The market’s bottom this week has the potential to be a significant bottom as we’ve seen signs of major capitulation by investors as evidenced by ETF fund flows in the world’s largest ETF,” Puplova writes.
Up up and away for the nzx next week
All this weirdness and things not seeming to be at all logical reminds me of this joke about economists.
When an economist says the evidence is "mixed," he means that theory says one thing and data says the opposite.
You'd have to think so if the Dow (up almost 1% today) and the Nasdaq (up 1.5%) is your cue.
Anyone have strong views on share buy backs? Apple has bought back $14 billion in the last 10 days- seems to have held the SP above $500 and now propelled it. I suppose they do have over $150b to play with. IFT did the same and the SP has been tepid. I'm no expert but I'd prefer companies to invest in growth rather than buy back stock, though I do like the confidence it installs when a company bets on itself.
The US unemployment rate falling to 6.6% seems to have fired US market’s today.
This one point fall in January to 6.6% followed by the three point fall in December put’s the unemployment rate well off the three year trend line, this in conjunction with much lower non farm payrolls in both December and January seemingly provides for two consecutive months of reasonably anomalous data.
Maybe its extreme weather related maybe not, it is though outside of seasonal adjustment.
I just wonder if a reversion back closer to the unemployment trendline, presently 7.0%, over the next few months may catalyse a much larger sentiment driven correction, let's wait and see.
NO!!! (put your glasses on) ...PT
I said one broken spike as the example of the 50 spike wheel ... 49 not broken +1 broken... I mention nothing about breaking spikes...just the increasing probably of when the wheel ever rolling forward and stopping on each spike ...if its not the broken spike then when the wheel turns again to the next spike the odds increase that the next spike is the broken one.
This is similar to the Bull market cycle with each forward turn and landing on a correction... the odds increase that the next one is not a correction but the cyclic reversal.
Yes Whipmoney The bit of your post was right....Short-term the market is driven by investor sentiment....day by day markets are driven by media (outside influences), the availability of money, and investor sentiment..... and all this is becomes historical data and chartists can apply that data to specific indicators to create all sorts of results from levels of investor momentum, sentiment, smart money exiting through to overbought and underbought situations......
Short term markets are volatile, often unpredictable, noisy, often irrational, and self correct frequently and rapidly thus attracting day traders.....
Most of us investors fall into either the medium term or long term....therefore our decisions should not be influenced by the day by day noisy market but more towards what really drives the market after you eliminate the noise...
Sharemarket theory and Market Physics are areas that the media tend to avoid as it is educationally boring hard to read and even harder to get your head around and understand the logic as it seems paradoxical to the stuff that the media pumps out.
What really grabs the investor readers (and the media makes sure this happens) is the exciting day by day soap operas as the market twists and turns to the global events of the day and the daily conclusion provided by the media analysts who portrayed by their own (media) to be Gurus and that their daily opinion and logic should be taken as gospel as well as gauging (rightfully or wrongfully) the sentiments of its readers and magnifying those feelings to the whole wide world.....also it makes great posts on ST :) ..
You sort of see now why Company management have little time for their shareholders writing in these forums and other media..eh?
Why I'm a bit anti with Media is the fact that most people believe what they read and apply their logic taken from their media education.....when the majority apply that logic and confirm each other it must be correct ..huh?...it then becomes "reality' and the "norm" and self feeds itself to become entrenched into the main stream ......something akin to the Flat Earth Society....
What Winner has posted (which is an article I hadn't read until yesterday) explains everything in detail to what I have raving on about for years The Investing strategies and secular bear market thread started by Winner69 has it all posted in detail so there's no need to regurgitate Market Physics summary here .............
Ultimately... it is not up to Winner or I to correct or re-educate the failings of media education ... its up the ST readers themselves whether they want to embrace it or not.....
I've said enough on this subject....
We don't need no education
We don't need no thought control
No dark sarcasm in the classroom
Teachers leave them kids alone
Hey teacher leave them kids alone
All in all it's just another brick in the wall
All in all you're just another brick in the wall .....Pink Floyd ..Another brick in the Wall
Agree, wish I knew more and have gratefully learn't a few things from this forum too. All we can do is manage risk and learn, or be out, or both.
Still, there are FA's out there who get economic and market predictions correct, I don't think luck comes much into play, they're just experienced and the best at what they do, something to aspire to really.
A two cent’s worth;
It’s difficult Tumeric to draw a direct correlation between the inflation rate and sharemarket sentiment because monetary policy over the last twenty years or so has been to better influence the inflation rate as a controlled output of interest rate manipulation.
The FED adjusts the OCR prior to when they would otherwise anticipate a large increase/decrease in inflation/deflation, thus taking out the extreme inflation swings that would otherwise better correlate with cycles within the sharemarket.
There is though thus a better macro relationship between OCR ranges and sharemarket cycles.
Have a look HERE Mac...All your thoughts will probably be explained...The reason inflation is considered to be the primary driver not interest rates, is that interest rates had no correlation with Equity markets before the 1960's in the USA. Since then it has and still is a controlled "variable?" within the system and used by Monetary Policy as a tool ...With monetary policy operating, interest rates are nowadays closely correlated with inflation therefore it correlates well with Equity Markets.....however..for example if countries abandon (or tinker with?) Montary policy for something else, interest rates may cease to be correlated with inflation...........hence inflation being the primary driver of the Equity Market not interest rates.
There’s thresholds to consider too;
Inflation is maintained within controlled limits by the FED by manipulating interest rates, but only within an interest rate band below levels whereby higher interest rates would otherwise limit businesses to leverage. So, yes, you could flop it over in a way and say that inflation is the driver behind the policy, but graphically there is little visual correlation within normal bands for aforementioned reasons.
Once interest rates cap out at the upper end of the band then inflation can become less controllable and may rise, at this point yes there becomes a more direct correlation between inflation and the sharemarket. Such as during years 2001 and 2007.
This article provides an insight as to the tolerable upper interest rate thresholds, though such a time is not on the immediate radar. I've built one of my FA exit models on similar criteria.
http://qvmgroup.com/invest/2013/06/2...tes-from-1957/
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