WHS share price back over 370 today .... maybe even 375
Forbar summed it nicely
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WHS share price back over 370 today .... maybe even 375
Forbar summed it nicely
can you go and do the same and re pump up the tires of MHJ winner?
think this thread probably wants to go back to sleep couldnt not get a park around local WHS yesterday...
The retail data set that TWG use to measure their own performance against all retail sales showed December sales were up 3% on pcp and that for the 5 months Aug/Dec (TWG year to date) sales were down 7%
Seems to be close to what TWG were saying ...I think
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...64/financials/
Now the market, analysts and investors seem to have had time to fully digest this we have observed the average analyst forecast declining from $126m to $109m, a 13.5% reduction and a share price drop from ~ $4.00 to $3.46, also a commensurate 13.5% reduction. Efficient market hypothesis looks alive and in good health to me.
I'm sticking with $90m and think the fair value is therefore considerably lower than the current share price, about 17% down from here ($2.85) although arguments for it being $2.50 - $3.20 have been made by me before my sense is somewhere near the middle is probably about right.
Fair value is one thing, a margin of safety is another given the impending threat of Omricon so that's gets me back to about $2.50 as a possible reentry price. If it doesn't get back down there I'm not going to lose sleep over it that's for sure !
"December sales were up 3% "
will be interesting to see where the Black hole is for earning to be 40% down full year.
If this was to transpire than the stock is a short.
A very detailed inspection of the next audited report is required.
A young legal beagle once said to me before she shipped out to oxford, just the facts.
Made for some very boring dinners but it was good training for holland and sweden.
Omicron not far away from disrupting NZ they say
Hope TWG don't suffer as much as this dismal tale from Wesfarmers about Kmart and Target
Trading conditions improved as restrictions eased during the second quarter of the 2022 financial year, but
customer traffic to stores was impacted by rising community transmission of COVID-19 in some states,
particularly during the Christmas trading period. Ongoing global supply chain disruptions were well
managed during the period as a result of investments made to hold additional inventory domestically, but
high levels of COVID-related absenteeism in New South Wales and Victorian distribution centres impacted
the ability to deliver stock to stores in line with customer demand.
and then when Omicron hit
Recent retail trading conditions
As a result of increasing cases of the COVID-19 Omicron variant in some states, retail trading conditions weakened in the last two weeks of the 2021 calendar year, and customer traffic to stores has remained subdued during the first half of January.
Team member absenteeism associated with the COVID-19 Omicron variant has placed additional pressure on distribution centres and stores in some states, necessitating a reduction of trading hours in some stores and impacting supply chain productivity and stock availability. These issues are expected to persist while COVID-19 cases and the number of team members requiring to isolate remain elevated.
Link -(may not work as from stockie
https://stocknessmonster.com/announc...asx-6A1072414/
Winner, makes a certain other retailer look pretty good.
Stand corrected the result was 2nd QTR.
It hit my stop-loss value and I got out at $3.50, keeping just 500 shares as an interest. Looks like I made the right choice as it is still dropping.
I will ask the directors at the ASM why they believed that the shareholders should subsidize government policy by WHS not applying for the wage subsidy when stores were closed.
Audited results arnt out yet. How would they know unless they have access to the ledgers and they dont.
Ok so normally I hold positions for a rather long time (decades in some cases) - but with the warehouse I have the opposite of whatever “diamondhands” is.
Completely folded and sold my entire position this morning.
Decided I was simply too exposed to the NZ retail sector - and to be honest I was also completely spooked by anecdotal data (insert standard “don’t rely on anecdotes” warning). Won’t go into details, but involved my better half and a series of Kmart shopping binges, combined with the conversations with some Australian relatives about the current retail situation over there (empty shelves, no staff, no desire to shop in middle of outbreak) and what that means for the Omicron induced sell-off I am now convinced will happen soon and will hit nearly all the listed NZ retail names hard (might be a better time to pick up some cheap long term holds as I am also confident CV is a temporary issue, but I probably wont re-renter warehouse).
(As usual Beagle was probably right)
All those people who work for Oceania etc for peanuts still have to shop somewhere to make their unlivable wage stretch further.
Fair enough LEK the DCB (dead cat bounce) did not last. Will still be interested in the AUDITED results.
You dont want to be too exposed.:scared:
JB Hi-Fi reported NZ Q2 (Oct/Dec) sales down 3.4% on pcp -- follows Q1 (July/Sep) down 6.4%. Half year EBIT was fractionally up so that's good.
Hoe Noel Leeming have done better .... even though NL Q1 (Aug/Sep) were down 12%
Westpac comment (after property market numbers today) -
We’ve been forecasting the housing market to turn to moderate price declines from the second half of this year. However, the timing of that turnaround has always been fluid, and given the scale of the rise in mortgage rates in recent months, it may prove to be earlier than we estimated. That in turn could have implications for the strength of consumer demand this year, and the extent of OCR hikes that will be needed to keep inflation in check.
Winner a ton of loans have been knocked back in a Baby and the Bath water tightening and they keep getting the housing market wrong even after loop holes have evaporated.
Its the house hold balance sheets that matter and Balance sheets across the western allies are in much better state than in the GFC. Its not a GFC.
Jeez - petrol might be 3 bucks plus soon
That will put a dampener on retail spend ....even if household balance sheets are in a good state;)
Winner that means the virus wont travel as much unless they start taking the bus like in europe.
Petrol up and supply chain freight charges up.
Sigh - I see, petrol up, interest rates up, consumer fears up, retail down. Right?
What I don't understand is - why will all of these things hit the Warehouse group fully and unprotected, while HLG (if I believe the tune in the respective thread) will do amazingly? It is the same consumers, just that HLG has as well huge Australia (Omicron) exposure ... maybe Omicron is really good for retail?
What I don't understand either ... why are companies like Turners and Colonial doing so nicely - are they not dependent on the same consumer dollar? Are consumers keeping their e-bike dollars (Torpedo 7) back while they spend like crazy for their next preloved car from TNR?
Still more difficult to understand is why companies like AIR and THL are doing so fantastically given subdued consume and no travel likely over the next year either.
It is just all a bit confusing, isn't it? But maybe everybody just seeing the thing they want to see ...
They may not be out and about for long but.. but... a 35 to 40 percent hit to ebit ?
The longer the summer goes on with no Bug about the lower the retail spend should be except buckets, spades and sun block.
Auckland private school swim teams seen in the wakatoo at out door 50 meter pools doing summer swim squads..
Country is out doors for sure.
Lets see the detail in the AUDITED reports.
BP - punters will still spend but spending may be rather subdued
Retailers (TWG included) hate it when sales are even 'flat', let alone declining..... they moan and groan etc etc. Flat sales usually mean profits down
Don't forget that this century total retail sales have never declined on an annual basis so we'll be OK .... profits might be down though
Do you have a chart of WHS's sales & margins over the years?
All I can recall about WHS is that post 2008, its performances have been in fits and starts with no consistency.
Saving grace for the company has been its substantial property assets which have been sold down via sale & leaseback arrangements to bolster the balance sheet and pay dividends.
You sure you want to wait for the AUDITED reports? They only audit them for full year, which means publication end of September. You are a patient man :):
Personally I would be already quite happy with the (unaudited) HY information, but even that is still 10 weeks or so away.
Do you propose a trading halt until we see the audited information? Otherwise I am afraid we just need to keep guessing ...
And yet here is a Beagle's (month's long) take before.
Well said, I couldn't agree more. $9 Billion a year that used to be spent on international travel is going to be spend somewhere and a fair portion of that will be on retail generally and specifically new outdoor experiences that embrace the great outdoors in N.Z. (Torpedo 7).
Beagle told us after the last post-covid period that people would be spending all that money on outdoor equipment!!!
He also told us how awesome themarket was and how excited he was about WHS and their digital platform.
SO yes, "It is just all a bit confusing, isn't it? But maybe everybody just seeing the thing they want to see."
" publication end of September"
yep...its when everything is Dug up.
the next result set will show there maybe a black hole but the real picture on how bad it could be wont be until full year. Then the real future picture will be weather (winter weather) 2.50 is in fact baked in.
IE> Mr B's call that theMarket is a black hole.
Chart tells an interesting story....broken down through all supports. Fight the technical's at your peril...took me a long time to learn that lesson.
I bit the bullet and sold out last WHS shares on the day of the recent downgrade. Had a decent run as a short-term thing.
Was lightening the load anyway at $4.10-4.15. Managed to sell the last at $3.69 that day, which at this stage looks pretty good......:sleep:
Few headwinds out there, and end of the day, it is the Warehouse.
The last technical band is 2.35 to 2.40 May JUL 2021.
looks like all retailer shine is starting to come off now. i see jb yesterday sales update nz sales down for the current quarter 3 - 4 %
Outdoor retail clothing should take off next 2 years as virus is slowly dampen down. Next summer HLG and Rip Curl.
When the macro-economic winds start to blow, the Red Sheds are the first to get flattened...
It is due to go ex div in about 11 weeks. Last April div was 13c which is about 9% yld for the last year. Maybe a slightly less div this April but still a good yld.
Hi mate, how's things ?
Just giving you a heads up that their divvy policy is to pay out not less than 70% of underlying profit for the year.
~ $40m profit = about 11.6 cps earnings for this half so 70% of that is 8 cps. I think given the uncertainties and potential near term threats to the business with Omricon and the significantly diminished cash position they are most likely to be in compared to the previous full year result (see an earlier post rough estimate for cash on hand at the pending interim report date I made a few days ago), the interim dividend will be right at the bottom of the 70% minimum limit, i.e. 8 cps, maybe 9 cps if you're lucky.
If they make $90m for the year that's 26 cps and 70% of that is 18.2 cps, possible estimate for the final dividend for FY22 is 10 cps. Grossing that up for imputation credits = 18.2 / 0.72 = 25.27 cps and on the current share price last time I looked of $3.41 that gives a gross prospective annual yield of 7.4%
Worth trying to dividend strip divvies of that size or hold for the gross yield ?, you be the judge.
Love Tom's cartoons -- always on point
Take note Nick - ..... there’s a risk of marketing myopia. From inside your mind and the minds of your marketing team, it can be easy to imagine that consumers are just waiting to “mingle freely” with your brand. Typical marketers sometimes over-inflate just how much people think about brands or want to engage with them.
Fun though eh Nick ..... if there's hype you have to join in
Dont you just live for days like these winner?
Back office running like a dream, almost asleep whatching CNBC... Maco coffee in hand... better do some swim training later. bit too wet to test out the new blades.
Its the ME Verse...A new marketing manager in an accounting firm in hamilton last year, short skirt and high heels.
Never thought id see the day....
ME Verse.
"Took the dogs out earlier .... the greyhound needs some swim training"
perfect day then....:t_up:
WHS bouncing back in afternoon trade.
WHS not hammered as much as BRIS.
Yes winner but the consumer is BRIS only black hole and should recover in next 12 months. Where as question mark remains over WHS.
It will be interesting to see how this unfolds.
The wobbly house now 3.25.... breaks below 3 dollars and it starts to get very interesting.
Go back to early October in this thread and have a look at the flak I took for daring to call the top at ~ $4.10. Even sold heaps of shares the same morning the CEO was buying them so he probably bought mine lol. Some newbies on here thought the wily old dog was just a young pup who came down in the last shower and knew nothing. Bet they wished they'd listened to my barking now eh ;)
Wait for $2.50 is my call now.
If its not a multi currency retail share its higher risk...
even if there is a big hole in the market it will get sold off and a rebuild at some years hence..The person's who throw the money in to the black hole will leave and another re org will start.
history repeating...
[QUOTE=Beagle;937816]Go back to early October in this thread and have a look at the flak I took for daring to call the top at ~ $4.10. Even sold heaps of shares the same morning the CEO was buying them so he probably bought mine lol. Some newbies on here thought the wily old dog was just a young pup who came down in the last shower and knew nothing. Bet they wished they'd listened to my barking now eh ;)
At the end of September you said:
"$5 before Christmas 2021 and $7 before Christmas 2022 and also NZX50 inclusion in 2022, I called it first :D"
But hey, things can change from one month to the next. Especially if it's WHS...
From an 'investor' point of view (as opposed to a trader).if you hold for a year or more the chances are that you will end up losing (including dividends) .... based on buying in July
Good call Beagle. I see lots of beers and oysters coming your way at the next st meeting for all your wonderful calculations and predictions. If all the people who have had good fortune from Beagles postings, I can see Beagle will not have to pay for anything for the next 3 or 4 meetings:t_up:. Getting back to WHS, I will be buying back in from 2.40 to $2.80 more or less.
Jeez beagle …..WHS down 21% from your sell price
Nick needs the share price to up 28% to break even on those shares he bought off you.
Investors Lose Appetite for Stocks of Unprofitable Companies - WSJ
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj...es-11643106602
Yes I didn’t see the relevance - Warehouse generates tens of millions in net profits every year, average for last 6 years is $59 million net income.
Unless Habit was posting in reference to investors here may start heading for profitable companies like the warehouse?
Looks like buyers are getting excited around the 3.10 to 3.12 mark.
Not putting a paw up for these until good value emerges in the mid $2's.
Attachment 13448
until a comprehensive picture emerges its a no go at any price im afraid. once a clearer picture emerges its a gamble at any price above 2.20.
Simply because its a one currency stock and this govt could not organise a drinking game in the beer festival.
There are too many policy settings that are not pro market. The percentage of GDP that is not government and local government related means the economy relies of high community prices to balance debt.
Long term it means there is simply not enough clarity on the structural balances of the economy to buy single currency stocks.
WHS by far worst performer of main retail stocks on NZX
Current price off recent highs
WHS -26%
BGR -16%
MHJ -8%
HLG -15%
And I thinkWHS has got further to fall
How many more years do you think before Nick gives up on the black hole that is themarket.com ?
Remember how expansion into Australia was going to be all the rage ?
Remember after that when it was their consumer finance division was going to drive huge profit growth ?
Both these foray's turned out to be very, very expensive failed experiments.
Latest experiment has huge potential to eat up vast amounts of money before they give up on that too.
I think the evidence that despite huge investment in its second year the platform went backwards quite badly is very ominous for the future but pride will prevent him from any near term recognition that this isn't working and they'll keep throwing tens of millions per annum down that rat hole for quite a few more years.
Hmm - you are writing this as if you know the business better than they do. Are there any new stats you have seen confirming your claims?
As a customer I must say I am using "the market" over the last 3 to 4 months much more frequently than I used to ... and so far I found the delivery prompt and the products as per description - and I am not referring to products just channelled through from the red sheds.
Saves me a lot of driving into town. I like to avoid driving into town these days ...
They sell as well a lot of stuff from smaller companies I otherwise would have ignored on the internet ... including some overseas shops. Again - the service works, if there are any issues (I didn't had any, but you never know ...), you are dealing with a NZ company and I find delivery quite fast. Sometimes it is order today, get your stuff tomorrow, and in most cases it was less than one week for delivery.
Maybe we should give them a chance before we get used to the trashing ...
I posted an analysis of first and second year performance of themarket.com a while back, both heavy top line sales decline and poor acceleration of losses in its second full year of operations to FY21. What is damming is that performance in its first year FY20 was for much of that year without Covid so you would expect that with all of FY21 being impacted by Covid and the well known very strong growth in online sales, top line growth in the market would have been very strong in FY21 not the exact opposite, going backwards quickly.
There will be no new confirming date until the release of their half year results.
All I can say is that every other retailer out there has posted exceptionally strong growth in online sales in FY21 and yet WHS did the exact opposite and the market.com showed very strong sales decline in FY21. These are annual total sales and losses facts mate, not anecdotal personal evidence from one user.
Surely any reasonable person would be seriously concerned by the market going backwards when every other retailer is enjoying strong growth ?
We're not talking about chump change here either.. the market.com burned through over $20m of losses in FY21 ! That's a pretty sizeable gamble on a strategy that currently isn't working and going backwards in my books.
Yet Nick commented recently that he's ostensibly doubling down on his metaverse strategy. Hmmm...the size of the gamble looks reckless to me but I guess that's what you would expect from a company that threw away $60m+ paying back a wage subsidy just to kowtow to the Govt and appear to be good from an ESG perspective.
Nick appears to have total myopic vision when it comes to his obsession with all things ESG, (how did that work out for Synlait ;) ),and all things metaverse...that's how I'm calling it. If I'm wrong so be it but I seem to be doing okay so far having sold him my shares at $4.10 ;)
I think Nick is the only person who actually knows what TheMarket.com turnover actually is. Surely its more the $4.7m (taking out 1-day sales) as shown in the AR
Their reporting of such things is far from transparent
The revenue figure attributed to TheMarket in the AR i gather is their cut on sales sourced from external brands and then report 1-day sales.
I gather that TheMarket and TWG online sales share the same IT platform .....maybe it is a very expensive platform for what it does
From their AR and Presentations numbers shown below .... make what you want of them
LEK will remind us that $393m of online sales makes TWG NZ's biggest online retailer in value .... probably correct ....but others would point out that 11% of total sales being online isn't that great compared to other retailers
@beagle ...
Fair enough ... I guess time will tell.
I do see that the introduction and improvement of the market does cost money ... I think they call this an investment. Just noted that their service and offer actually did improve as well. Whether this is just my impression, the coming financials will tell.
No doubt - the investment into the market is not cheap, and the website is not yet perfect. Compared to the HLG website (which clearly offers much more sexy and colourful pictures) do they appear quite grey and boring.
On the other hand ... it might be not be just me with a limited demand for buying minute bikinis :p ; So much more useful stuff on the market ...
Anyway - Just had a look how bad the WHS share price really did over the last 2 years: You are right - it went up only a measly 15% (the blue line in the chart below), while HLG rocketed in the same time frame up by 7.5% (the orange line). Dividend yield for both companies (at current SP and this years dividends) is not bad (HLG 7.2%, though WHS @ 8.4% is better :) ;
Attachment 13451
Sorry - I could not resist ...
Kogan market place going pretty good. They know how to run an online marketplace unlike WHS?
● Kogan Marketplace continued its rapid scaling, achieving more than $200million ($221.1 million) in Gross Sales in the half for the first time ever, up 28.7%YoY.
Time WHS follows Beagles advice and give up on it
Not quite sure the market agrees with your statement (if we take a 2 year horizon - about the time the WHS market exists):
Attachment 13454
I must however admit that the ride using using KGN (yes, the orange line) looks much more exciting - sheesh - all this adrenalin .... looks a bit like bungee jumping!
Both companies are building up a virtual market place ... and Kogan clearly created much more hype - followed by much more disappointment. Is this really better?
Kogan as a stock is all over the place. But their ownership of Mightyape should give WHS and themarket pause for thought. That company is beloved by its customers with reviews to boot, has superb archituture and its distribution and fullfillment are topclass. What's more, it's profitable. WHS' investment in themarket looks most unwieldy, unlimited and with no apparent KPI focused outcomes. Customer reviews are poor, nothing special about the range, deliveries are spotty as looks to use lots of drop shippers. I doubt with 5 years of $10m per annum they could build half the business that mightyape is. Looks like a cash bleeding blackhole to me. I've only ordered once from themarket (and also the warehouse) which was sufficient for me to just order anything I can get from them, from mightyape or amazon.
NZ is just too small and there are too many competitors for themarket to turn into the amazon of nz.
its the flyingpig v2....
Well said F.M. The risk is 5 years of $30-$40m losses as Nick won't want to lose face by giving up too early.
What we don't know is how much of that is the Warehouse platform and how much is the market ? Yet profitability is down from $111m to estimated $40m. How much investment has Nick been throwing at the market platform ? Interim accounts will be interesting assuming they disclose enough information.
Well said. Think I read somewhere recently the price of google adds has tripled in recent times. No worries, more money is sure to fix this so Nick will keep throwing heaps more at it thinking that's a guaranteed strategy for success...so what could possibly go wrong ;)
Most of this last 24 months was supported by GDP brought forward. That support is now going to come from where? Which honey pot is the distributor of support coming from now? The minister of Financial Wizardry cant say another other than dont panic. But they have to keep the sugar coming from somewhere in the little kingdom.
ON line will grow no doubt because everyone is back in the HUT.
Also have to think about things like this looking foward.
Many households could see their mortgage interest rates double when they re-fix their mortgages, according to property data company CoreLogic.
And the new tax for unemployment which i think i read could be 2 or 3%
Consumer is going to be squeezed.....