Haha...classic bull..that why I like about u.....nothing... nothing at all
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Haha...classic bull..that why I like about u.....nothing... nothing at all
Basically the article is another evidence, as we discussed about the overseas riches moved to NZ....that will support n push NZ assests up
On the article said...there are number of riches moving to NZ
More people are currently leaving NZ than coming in and on top of that more NZ residents are leaving than coming in. doesn’t seem too good for OCA or any property share to me. Still hold tho.
Sure, was just point out stories of loads of foreigners moving to safe haven NZ aren't really supported by the stats, in fact the opposite appears to be true.
And also you are kidding yourself if you think just because there is an aging population the share price is going to out perform. Every man and his dog knows about these demographic trends and the market is awash with capital fighting for a slice of the pie. I wouldn't be surprised if retirement village operators under perform the market.
That said OCA is currently one of the few focusing on care and I hold.
If you have some insights please feel free to share..
Most Experienced in aged care, able to cross-sell same or more than other players, land bank for 2000 units, consented and potential to convert suites to villas (not all have this luxury),
What they don’t have is enough experience in property play (self-assessed by the Board), sites/growth in South Island, and easy entry path in other markets.
Agree?
That's not what the recent modelling says.
https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zea...etric%20models.
NZ population steadily rising. One of the reasons our housing market doing that well.
Where would your statement come from?
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...-been-arriving
The stats do not back up the narrative that a net increase in residents are coming back to NZ due to coronavirus safe haven status.
not sure which one to trust eh....
hold on...i will call my mate...one of national MP to leak out the legit data....
The graph in Black Peters link depicts a long trend of population growth and is not incompatible with the recent months where more people have left the country.
Seems pretty convincing doesn’t it James
Through thick and thin and good times and bad times more NZers have left than come back every year since the 80’s
But I’m told there are a million kiwis overseas and they all going to come home over next year or so so that’s good.
A few thoughts. We only went to Covid level 1 in early June 2020 so the above stat's don't reflect the desirability of our Covid status from an international perspective.
Likewise its only in the last month or two that Covid 19 has really become really rampant in some developed countries, (America), a good example.
It takes time for ex pats to uproot their lives, their homes and business's and get back here and that assumes there's sufficient flights and quarantine facilities.
Anecdotally real estate clients of mine are reporting very brisk business from ex pat's prepared to pay top dollars for the right home for their family.
I think it is highly likely we'll see a significant number of those ex pats come back in the next year or two which will be good for the sector.
Interesting to note that housing stock level's for sale across the industry according to REINZ data is very low. Low stock and emerging higher demand usually has a fairly predictable effect on pricing. I think the house price outlook is considerably less gloomy than almost every economic forecaster (throwing darts ?) is forecasting.
Build it and they will come appears to be some other companies mantra...which usually works for those companies with a stellar reputation for first class care like OCA does. Hope OCA is full steam ahead with its development program.
Fair enough. However - for residential property demand I suppose long term trends are more relevant than arrivals / departures impacted by lock down conditions.
As well - don't forget that at the moment many more people are queuing up for a return than are allowed to come. Gummit closed the tap due to quarantine limitations and told airlines to restrict the incoming traffic. I trust that at some stage they will manage to sort out quarantine and provide places for all who need them.
Beagle intuitively I would agree with you but I am conservative by Nature so will remain unconvinced until I see a bit of evidence.
No harm in being conservative and prudent. I'm not buying any more until I see next weeks result.
Sold. Will consider buy back upon decent results and fair SP entry opportunity if presents itself.
Tony Alexander thinks there's no longer a brain drain but a brain gain.
http://www.tonyalexander.nz/resources/TV%2016%20July%202020.pdf
“Imagination is more important than knowledge. Imagination is the language of the soul. Pay attention to your imagination and you will discover all you need to be fulfilled” so said a guy called Einstein
I can imagine having Oceania having a good year and It’s shareprice over $1.50 by this Christmas ...I’m paying attention to that imagination.
Good luck with that combination of events.
Yep, I too like the odd episode of TV (Tony's View). Probably even better now that he's left the bank and out on his own.
Re the discussion on immigration flows of late, I suspect a lot of the exodus will be low paid foreign workers who've suddenly found themselves out of work with no support to be had in NZ, plus a bunch of foreign students (I sat next to a young German lad on the plane the other day who said a good chunk of other German exchange students bailed in March but he did the full 6 months and loved it). Can't really see too many others making the choice to depart NZ ATM unless the wheels have been in motion and plans well advanced.
Inbound, sure, there'll be a bunch of young ones that have had their OE curtailed, but there are also likely to be plenty of Kiwis returning that would like to get into the property market...maybe those that had been sitting on the fence about returning anyway, or have found themselves out of work in their chosen place of residence.
Overall, I suspect flat to slightly positive in favour of the NZ property market.
Of course the numbers out vs in are tracking the way they are.
NZ is proving damn hard to get into - 3 weeks flight stoppage etc
The folks leaving have been as much the stranded foreigners as much as anything else and folks whose work visas cannot be renewed.
We have any number of mates stuck overseas unable to get home.
Looking at short term arrival/departure COVID skewered stats and drawing a longer term conclusion for in this case OCA is a very very long bow indeed.
No, it is definitely true. I am stuck in the UK at the moment where 60,000 kiwis wanting to come home are in a single queue, all 2 meter socially distancing and wearing face masks, that stretches along the A4 from London Heathrow Airport to Chippenham.
I am about half way along sitting on the pavement in the western outskirts of Newbury.
Many kiwis will come home..... overseas job market not looking good.
Why would kiwi expat stay overseas when they loose thier jobs....while coming back home...bringing thier cash n straight to DOLE...job seeker subsidy ...what a bloody great wet dream
can the snow cat please post a photo of this huge queue somewhere on an off market thread or video it and place on you tube..or somewhere..
Like...u expecting them to line up....then say...cheers ..u are on the candid camera...punters in the share forum would like to see u all....lol
My good mate mcduffy will mark my comment irrelevant...wtf
No problem, Kingi. Anything goes on the OCA thread these days.Quote:
My good mate mcduffy will mark my comment irrelevant...wtf
;)
Lol.... mcduffy....all your posts are relevant and highly rated....hahhaha...wtf
Wonder if one should put a risk factor into ones thinking when assessing Oceania’s (and the others) value / share price due to the inevitiable return of the virus.
Complacency lead to what’s happening now in Victoria //NSW and aged care seems to be a problem.
We dodged a bullet last time but when it returns it will be worse. Can’t keep it out forever.
I think the risk factor is allready in there, otherwise we would be up to at least $1.20 and MET around $6.50. My reason for this is that with TD rates where they are us oldies have to "risk" investing a greater percentage of our savings into equeties to try and maintain our incomes.
Its a possibility, not inevitable, but for some reason doesn't seem to be that much of a factor in any of the other sector companies except MET ? Many other companies would be worse hit, (OCA can still provide care services and sell care suites during lockdown level 4 if reimposed)
Charging for quarantine might slow down the flow a bit https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12349183
OCA managed the risks extremely well last time. Shareholders can feel a sense of pride in having a share in the ownership of a company committed to the very highest standards of care.
Dude, we don't say that! But seeing as you already went there, one might suggest it would be a double edged sword, due to the culling of potential future customers. Indeed it would be interesting to know what the impact of the virus is having on demand (present and future) in the RV sector in some of the harder hit countries.
was only joking about photos... but how long was that queue again? could that be the queue waiting for OCA shares ...once you all get your rich rewards from MET.
as far as property prices go and i rely on my young builder friends as i have no skills in either DIY or property sales and purchase. Interests report is out and prehaps those here with knowledge of the NZ property market may comment.
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...d-interestconz
Guru Mark from Craig’s says money flows imply punters buying Oceania with their Met money
Oceania Healthcare in the year ending 31 May 2019, with Underlying Net Profit after Tax from continuing operations of $49.7m and Total Comprehensive Income of $99.8m.
Gurus' reckon Underlying Net Profit after Tax:
- Maverick $50m ("very confident") - $53m ("possibility")
- Beagle $40 - $45 ("perhaps overly pessimistic"). Anything >$50m "be impressed"
Even a flat to slightly down result would be awesome considering the period covers the whole of the Covid situation, and increased care worker costs. A lot depends on how sales went I guess. Company trading back above IPO but at discount to NTA. Imagine that, if you stopped the business, liquidated all the assets and paid out shareholders, you'd get more per share than they trade on market today. Weird. Cheap.
So full year results announce on Thursday morning, with live webcast 10:30am. Can hardly wait!
Gltah
praying for a shocker....winner nn said .70?
I think that's the key point. Other companies reporting recently, namely ARV and RYM have only reported results that encompass a small initial part of the effect of the Covid 19 lockdown. As you know I have my own views that the total overall cost of Covid 19 could easily run to $10-15m given the intensity within their business model of the care side of things and the number of sites.
There would also have been some impact on sales of independent living units that could push the total overall effect to circa $20m inclusive of profits lost from sales that would otherwise have happened but for Covid 19. In that context even a figure as low as $35m isn't too bad. Market will just be happy to get the result behind it, quantify the effect but will quickly be thinking about how sales will rebound in the current year. Market is a forward looking beast, always has been and always will be.
Mr B says possible 35M; if so a sell off and then recovery. If the speed of traffic in the central north island is anything to go by the population has recovered from the shock of global disturbances and so too will the share price of OCA. Speedily recover...
I'm going to say between $45-49m. I think they'll do well to get to the same place as last year and I'd be very impressed if they do or even beat it. I'd be pleased if I'm proven wrong.
I'm more interested to see if they've made any progress on stemming the gradual decline on the care side of the business. I still see this as the short term pain point for the next 2-3 financial years until they can convert more growth to the higher end of the market.
I think your going to very disappointed Value with the "care profits" if you are looking for a rise this year. I`m picking about 20m where last year was 24m. That's without the extra costs of Covid`s PPE and extra wages chucked in. Its likely to be REALLY bad if that's included too. (who knows how/where those costs will be included).
Putting Covid expenses aside the reason the "care profits" will appear bad is because they have to demolish units to rebuild them . That means turning paying customers away and still paying to retain care staff for several years.
Then there are 2 more handbrakes for the care profit. Firstly it takes 2-3 years to completely refill a new delivery (so a stack of inefficiencies during that time) and then on the first sale of each new care suit the "new build margin profit" is counted over in the "village profit" section of the accounts.
So I`m expecting this years "care "result to be circa $20m (down from 24m pcp) but the "care suit new sales margins" to be 14m (up from 5.8 pcp) so all up that a net gain of about $4m.
Again, all of these figures don`t include the inevitable and substantial covid costs.
I do expect this years care profits to be the bottom of the entire project/pipeline and will gradually firm up in next years result and beyond.
Anyway....ONE MORE SLEEP TO GO. ...ahhhh I can taste free beer already.:t_up:
Love a bit of positive talk on the eve of the announcement. Thought I'd take a selfie getting ready to head to the pub to buy Maverick his beer.
Just look how happy I will be if the underlying profit is over $50m https://www.bing.com/images/search?v...=50&ajaxhist=0
It doesn’t really matter what underlying profit is tomorrow ....whether it’s $35m or $50m or $70m it really is irrelevant in the big picture
This year just another step forward in their conversion program which will lead to immense value creation
Don’t forget the valuation is in the story ...not meaningless financial metrics,
Might get a 3 cent divie ... but that not really a good thing.
Winner, you know tn this world the story is better than the bottom line....
Look at APT, ZEL and AIR... their bottom lines are all going to be absolutely horrid for the next few years at least, and they might have different stories, but the stories are all oh so very strong, and that's all that matters!
In this economic climate, its the long term potential to cope and be successful that is more important in setting value. While profit is always good, I'm not really concerned about the results or in fact the divvie.
The word is out, $68.7m !!!!...who would have thought :D
Where can shareholders watch tomorrow's announcement?
Thanks Beagle
I bought quite a few of these. Should I be hyped?
If the details contained in the email are correct, then this raises a whole lot of other concerns for me about the company or associated institutions that I did not have previously!
Nah...no leak....just playing around...chill out!! Tomorrow will be revealed
there is still 12 to 24 months before you need to buy in again? lets face it this thing is not going parabolic any time soon..... i hope not... not in with anything worth keeping yet... i am hoping it will take 2.5 to 3 years before it gets over 175...and it will still be cheap.
with the recent gold plated impersonations , leaky photo messages of all shorts of portrait art by reputable honorary folk before during or after lock down one cant be sure what to believe anymore ... :eek2: ...68 million! boy that earl is some sales man and the sandy shore apartments must have done the job after all! .. of course i have no idea but MR B say its a long term story and that surely means 5 - 7 years unless accountants have suddenly change the meaning of Fixed Assets to current assets and brought forward future revaluations into current assets in a new standard we havnt seen in the research archives yet and published as a research discussion paper. Bit like the advanced trusts paper was in 1995? or was it 1997? Look how long that took to come home to roost...
anyone want to go higher than 2 dollars in 2.5 years? surely the man who calls himself MAV who has a model will soon know.
Oh no...... went to bed last night with a huge happy grin on my face dreaming of $68.7 mill........for awhile I thought ShareTrader was taking after our politicians with all their leaks......what could possibly go wrong!!??
;)
Anyway....whatever the result GLH.
(Disc = Holder with av SP around 84c.)
there we have PARADOX has it over 2 dollars within 24 months! No one went for the email leak, Earl would have kittens and its not even april fools day. Definitely a huge forward weighting machine and with you all looking to invest your MET GAINS paradox might be right and no where to get a TD deposit return any time soon MR B may be right on the money... its show time any hour now..unless you have a huge gains on microsoft and that is fully valued now for sure according to CNBC traders Mr Worth.
why then do we have sellers at 103,04, because these are just a few who bought at 40-50 and taking a small profit? and will we see these numbers going forward in the sales column for the next 12 months? If so there is no hurry to buy.
$43m underlying net profit after tax it is... but a reported net loss after tax!
On a first look, I am glad my biggest holding is ARV.
Nobody guessed a LOSS
handle with care
look at you all siting right on the NZX right now.
i said hoped for a shocker...
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...711/326868.pdf
"Financial Performance Audited Underlying EBITDA from continuing operations of $63.5m for the year ended 31 May 2020 was in line with the prior corresponding period. This was pleasing considering the loss of the final quarter of retirement village unit sales due to the Government lockdown, which occurred in our peak sales season, and also increased costs that were incurred in aged care due to COVID-19. Once restrictions were lifted by the Government in Alert Level Two, we experienced a strong increase in enquiries and have taken a greater number of applications over late May and June than we recorded last year. Audited Reported Net Loss after Tax of$13.6m included an unrealised decrease of $21.7m in the valuation of Investment Property, predominantly driven by changes to key valuation assumptions made in response to COVID-19, including lower unit price growth rates. Operating cashflow increased 11.3% to$99.4m as a result of the sales proceeds from recently completed developments."
I see that Underlying Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation is now the main profit reporting metric
That’s sneaky - In line with last year ...that’s good
These financials mean nothing ...but to most they will be more than satisfactory ...the gunna story is still intact ...watch out 2024
The value is in the story
reduced dividend as well
Alot of the preso seems devoted to justifying/explaining what they are doing is what they said they would do in previous statements - just the top and bottom lines haven't delivered like it was implied at the time of those statements... hmm
But the justifications/explanations are good at strengthening the story - that the big top and bottom line increases are just around the corner now (the big borrowing is certainly already here - borrowings and finance costs have doubled from just 2 years ago)... Equity down... hmm
Average resale gain per unit/care suite the lowest in 5 years... hmm
There is a few too many hmm's in these results
Disappointed!!!. Wasnt hoping for to much in the current climate but i think the problems run deeper than covid
Results been out for 40 minutes now... the silence on here is deafening
There are about 173 users browsing this thread currently, shows the level of interest...
happy we moved wholesale from PCT, GMT HGH to ARG and traded OCA only... DISC: only trading this stock now.
I am not surprised-sold some yesterday at 1.04 .
However that was partly to rebalance my portfolio as I have too many OCA .
The narrative in the annual report is good .
Its about caring for people ,growth and being rewarded for doing so.
Retaining good staff and rewarding them.
I do not care what the sp does-I am with them for the long-term
Increased borrowings and a decrease in divy?Why even pay a dividend if you need more money!ridiculous