Yes I know. I just posted that incase someone thought it was a good idea for their hard earned money.
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Year Dividends Dividend Total 2012 4.0c+3.0c 7.0c 2013 5.0c+3.0c 8.0c 2014 5.0c+3.5c 8.5c 2015 5.0c+3.5c 8.5c 2016 5.5c+3.5c 9.0c Total 41.0c
Averaged over 5 years, the dividend works out at 41.0/5 = 8.2c (fully imputed).
So based on a 7.5% gross yield, fair value for SKL is:
8.2 / (0.075 x 0.72) = $1.52
You'd be right. Isn't that Spooky... :-)Quote:
I bet you can get $1.51 at 7.5% gross out of it.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
SNOOPY
http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y26...L-20170216.png
A quick glance, a bit of mental arithmetic, and a sanity check.
The current SP looked a likely target.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Note: did not record payment dates until 2015
So H1 NPAT down 7% but H2 gunna be up 20%
That's good
Snoopy - so why does the SKL PE remain pretty consistent when SKL profits fall or rise (period in 2007/2009 good example). You theory would have suggested a high PE through this period but it remained about the average. SKL share price doesn't behave lie true cyclicals.
Are SKL profits cyclical? Not really methinks (if they were one is at the top if the cycle now)
Why not really -
When things go against them they have little resilience to manage themselves through these times. This results in disappointing profits
When things should be going their way they fail to capitalise on the opportunities - poor execution of those gunna to do this and gunna to do that strategies. This results in profits about the $20m mark. Seems the best they can do.
Have things changed?
As referenced in my own previous post, I saw 2006 as the dawn of the 'new' Skellerup. I think the plan back then was to break out of the gumboot manufacturer image. The plan was 'reinvention as a growth company'.
I bought the growth story when I invested in SKL for the first time. But when growth stalled last year, I re-evaluated SKL as a dividend paying cyclical. No capital was lost though, because I never overpaid for my SKL shares in the first instance. My point is, I am not sure myself that SKL is a true cyclical. The dairy and iron ore downturns that came together really took the wind out of the SKL growth engine. If you look at the earnings numbers, then SKL isn't growing. But with the two king hits they took, is this a surprise? And can you blame SKL management for not seeing the crash in iron ore and milk prices coming together?
2007 to 2009 was when the 'new growth strategy' (sic) was bedding in. So perhaps it was unfair to expect SKL to behave like a cyclical over that time period?
If your main customers are 'commodity producers', is it fair to suggest that their suppliers have 'little resilience' in a downturn? According to Skellerup management, SKL is making essential consumables for both dairy and iron ore mining. So at the first hint of 'free cash' for their customers, we should see an upturn? How could SKL manage things better?Quote:
Are SKL profits cyclical? Not really methinks (if they were one is at the top if the cycle now)
Why not really -
When things go against them they have little resilience to manage themselves through these times. This results in disappointing profits
When things should be going their way they fail to capitalise on the opportunities - poor execution of those gunna to do this and gunna to do that strategies. This results in profits about the $20m mark. Seems the best they can do.
Have things changed?
Not sure what you are referring to about failing to capitalize on opportunities when things are good?
SNOOPY
Snoopy - all that 'soul searching' and building a new company based on their strengths has resulted in lower profits (per share basis) than what they were achieving beforehand.
Another example of we gunna do this and ..........but maybe a new era is dawning as 2020 approaches.
10 10:22:05 am 152 1,000,000 $1,520,000 Off Market
May be Sir Cushing or some large overseas fund on accumulation phase again...all good!!!