Don't be too hard on yourself mate. Its a well known phenomenon that people get emotionally attached to shares. My AIR shares and me are best mates lol
Crikey it looks bloody grim :scared:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11497435
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Don't be too hard on yourself mate. Its a well known phenomenon that people get emotionally attached to shares. My AIR shares and me are best mates lol
Crikey it looks bloody grim :scared:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11497435
If the Heartland share price had followed the red line in the chart below we wouldn't be thinking as we do now would we.
There is also a line showing Heartland's book value. The current share price is just over 10% more than its book value.a Price/Book Value of 1.1. This is probably a pretty fair valuation, many would say about right.
The chart shows the share price has moved from being relatively undervalued (P/B less than 1) to being reasonably (fairly) priced.
Heartland was never worth $1.41. Those were times of real exuberance.
Something happened to cause all the excitement that took the share price to $1.41
On reflection I think Heartland themselves caused a fair bit of this excitment.
After all they (or at least the CEO did) started showing us all those charts with HNZ valuations relative to Australian peers. The message was strong - Heartland share price is too low, Heartland is way undervalued. Talk about a good round of ramping (or more politely self promotion). Even the analysts agreed - did they fall for it as well? It seemed to work - it got the share price up.
But I think the market has got over that and now Quadrant have gone normality has resumed and the share price is about where it should be. No panic, steady as she goes from here. The red line looks pretty good eh.
The Global Dairy Price Index was 954 on Feb 17th (it had been on the rise since the previous October). On that date the Heartland share price was $1.38
Over the last 6 months as the GDT index has fallen so has the Heartland share price. (GDT down46% and HNZ down 21%
Just an observation and surely a coincidence
Or perhaps not. At the time of the ASM on 31 October 2014 the GDT auction price was about $2,700 and the SP was $1.00. Between then and about late January / early February 2015 the GDT auction price rose to circa $3,500 and with it HNZ's SP to $1.32 whereupon on 1 February 2015 I made the bold call the stock was fairly and fully valued and that gains going forward from there would be far harder to achieve. Since then, apart from a brief spurt up to $1.41, the GDT auction price and HNZ's SP have been pretty much steadily downhill, apart from a period just preceding Quadrant's sale when the SP was quite remarkably firm for a short time despite a weaker GDT auction price, which surprised me. Is that a coincidence ?, that's the real "coincidence" question people should be asking !
Nice informative chart Winner..
Next we will bw getting into a discussion on correlation does not imply causation
Whatever things did cause a lot of exuberance
Might be dairy prices .... might be Heartland ramping the undervalued stock story up .... and then there is the coincidence that all this happened around the time that Quadrant were planning their exit.
Just pure speculation
Heartland near the top of the leader board today .....whoopee
Is tomorrow the big day when the good news comes out?
https://www.nzx.com/companies/HNZ/announcements/268573
Absolute stunner! Even above the recently upwardly revised profit forecast!
Onwards and upwards to $1.40 again!
Haven't had a chance to read full report yet, although found this interesting note:
"Heartland Bank intends to issue a Tier 2 capital instrument this financial year as part of its capital management strategy, subject to market conditions remaining favourable... An issue of Tier 2 capital could (in the absence of any other use) allow Heartland to return capital by way of a share buy back which would have a positive impact on ROE and EPS. A share buy back would also be attractive if Heartland shares continue to trade below the Board’s view of their intrinsic value."