https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertain...N2DFQC72FCSKM/
Ogg will be gutted.
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https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertain...N2DFQC72FCSKM/
Ogg will be gutted.
Either they didn’t get the interest they wanted, and now won’t sell it because they can only get chump change for it…or…
An intense bidding war is ongoing and shareholders are in for a massive windfall!
Is it premature for me to nip out to New World and grab a bottle of Dom Perignon?
It was useful to get a breakdown of CAPEX needs for Sky.
Interestingly, the 'stay in business' CAPEX requirements for Sky is only about $10M-$15M.
That produces FY21 Owner Earnings of $110M-$120M.
Since investing in Sky I have conservatively taken the entire CAPEX spend and treated it all as 'keep the lights on' (and therefore end up with a lower OE figure). I think this is still fair at the moment because the money spent on growth is tied to survival...and in a way is all 'stay in business' spend (i.e. if they don't invest in streaming, broadband etc there would not have been a business left for very long).
But still useful to get the breakdown. Once the big investments are completed over the next 2-3 years FCF will rocket up again. We will stay FCF positive the whole way (which is amazing when you think about it) but should comfortably generate FCF north of $50M again in a few years if Management and The Board are effective in their strategy.
I have to say, these "unsolicited offers" seem unlikely to eventuate into anything.
It has been over 3 weeks since they announced that they have employed Jarden to help with a review. Jarden would have been employed before the Investor Day...so it could be more like 4 weeks.
I think it would only realistically take a week or two for The Board to decide if they were going to pursue any of the deals. Certainly not a month.
My guess is that they are not moving forward with any of the proposals.
It would also appear that the property sale is not happening either, for similar reasoning.
So what next, perhaps Ogg will consult his crystal ball again:mellow:.
Wow ogg, how uncanny a minute after you posted.....
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/image/...AAAElFTkSuQmCC
Hey, look...I know you are hurting mate. Your whole strategy is to buy shares on the basis that someone else will buy them off you at a higher price 'soon'. The radio silence must be absolutely doing your head in. I forgive you for lashing out, don't worry.
I said that Sky would not list any of their properties? I have no recollection of this. Hopefully you can find a link to my original post to refresh my memory.
Now, to be fair...you have been wrong on every single thing you have speculated on for the last couple of years. I know you have taken the Investor Day announcement of "unsolicited approaches" as vindication...but there is absolutely no evidence that Comcast (or anyone else for that matter) has approached Sky with a takeover bid.
So perhaps a little "guesswork" from others isn't such a bad idea.
I should also point out that I hope I am wrong about this. If The Board can pull together a deal that adds value to shareholders, of course I would be open to it.
But as each day passes from this point on, I gotta say - it seems less likely that a deal is happening.
Re: the property sale. I emailed Colliers on Friday 16 July asking for an update. The contact emailed me back soon after and said he would "come back to me with an update shortly". I haven't heard anything since.
Emailed him this morning again as a follow up and...still nothing.
So my 'guess' is that this also does not bode well for Sky converting unneeded property into much-needed cash. I can only assume that any indicative offers were below what The Board expected.
As a business owner, it is good to know that The Board aren't just jumping for 'any old deal' just for the sake of it. They have a clear idea of what Sky and its assets are worth, and they are sticking to that (so it seems).
Hey, look...I know you are hurting mate. Your whole strategy is to buy shares on the basis that someone else will buy them off you at a higher price 'soon'. The radio silence must be absolutely doing your head in. I forgive you for lashing out, don't worry.
I said that Sky would not list any of their properties? I have no recollection of this. Hopefully you can find a link to my original post to refresh my memory.
Now, to be fair...you have been wrong on every single thing you have speculated on for the last couple of years. I know you have taken the Investor Day announcement of "unsolicited approaches" as vindication...but there is absolutely no evidence that Comcast (or anyone else for that matter) has approached Sky with a takeover bid.
So perhaps a little "guesswork" from others isn't such a bad idea.
I should also point out that I hope I am wrong about this. If The Board can pull together a deal that adds value to shareholders, of course I would be open to it.
But as each day passes from this point on, I gotta say - it seems less likely that a deal is happening.
Re: the property sale. I emailed Colliers on Friday 16 July asking for an update. The contact emailed me back soon after and said he would "come back to me with an update shortly". I haven't heard anything since.
Emailed him this morning again as a follow up and...still nothing.
So my 'guess' is that this also does not bode well for Sky converting unneeded property into much-needed cash. I can only assume that any indicative offers were below what The Board expected.
As a business owner, it is good to know that The Board aren't just jumping for 'any old deal' just for the sake of it. They have a clear idea of what Sky and its assets are worth, and they are sticking to that (so it seems).
As it turns out, I did hear back from Colliers a couple of hours after I made that post.
The contact said he had been advised that no decision has been made at this stage. And unfortunately he is unable to "shed any more light on it".
Doesn't exactly scream out that The Board have been inundated with exceptional offers, does it?
Didnt you just post this?
https://i.imgur.com/w30QP0e.jpg