I would be more worried about the new car salespeople than the used car salespeople in a recession.
Finance companies do very poorly in a recession as the tens of thousands of newly unemployed workers can't pay their bills. Expect an impact on Oxford Finance.
Most people will stick with their existing vehicle BUT Turners sells lower value vehicles so there will always be demand as people who come up against end of life issues with their existing vehicle have to buy a replacement.
Turners also still have their rescission hedge, the credit management company EC Credit. Increased earnings here will help offset falls elsewhere as well as be useful in chasing bad debts.
Sell off looks over done to me.
This could be an opportunity to sell EC Credit, as COVID -19 highlights the value of a business that does well in bad times. Todd Turner has made it known that EC Credit is 'on the block', and this could be a path to company debt reduction. Personally I would prefer that EC Credit is retained, but Todd does seem determined to sell.
SNOOPY
Most people need a car to get to work or to find work.
Former CFO at HGH, told me people paid their vehicle payments before their mortgage.
Firms and leasing firms making staff redundant will pass on their company cars to Turners to sell.
And yes some annual overseas holiday money will find its way to Turners.
Launch of Carly subscription model may be very timely.
Recent Turners buying experience....
Someone pulled out in front of me a month or so back and wrote off our Mitsi Outlander. Insurance went fine, got paid out enough to go car shopping again...
Found the model we wanted on Turners Chch (another Outlander) and called up to arrange a purchase (I'm out of town). Got messed arround for 4 days between the sales guy (who still didnt get me the info I asked for), an online form, a PDF and the finance manager.....
Got annoyed, called up Toyota Chch and bought the model I wanted in less that 2 hours from some very helpful staff.
Be wary of cultures of complacency, it can be hidden when times are bad and decimating when the market turns.
Just my recent experience, DYOR.....
I recently went to look at selling through Turners. I got told to make an appointment and come back at a time that suited Turners. Too hard basket at this stage, but might still happen. They are really pushing "agreed value" at this stage rather than auctions.
Last time I sold thru them same thing Arthur - have to make an appointment then they push "we will give you X$ now" or before auction we have someone interested in paying X$ do you wnat to sell - no went to auction got more than both amounts offered - extra $800 odd after commissions I think it was