Originally Posted by
RTM
Roger,
I realise you have a lot more experience with finance companies than I have as I completely dodged their meltdown, and I think that this has perhaps coloured your thinking to a large extent with respect to Heartland.
That's fine...and I can understand why you are so negative there. I must admit I am a little surprise that you think that the HNZ management are so inept that they would get our company into difficulty, especially so soon after the finance company meltdown. Surely the lessons learnt will still be with them and their lending will be reasonably well diversified. I think so and rightly or wrongly will therefore continue to hold my HNZ shares.
What I am more surprised about is that you seem to think companies such as PGW AIR and SCL are less risky. Disc: I hold all three.
AIR.... They are one pilot error away from a major crash of their share price. That's all it would take to maybe halve the share price, perhaps worse.
SCL... Have most of their production in Hawkes Bay. A disease issue, major drought, a series of hailstorms etc could see SCL have major issues.
PGW... Perhaps the least risky as they service all the agricultural sectors, so might be a little safer.
Above does not include normal market and business risks that would apply to all. Exchange Rates, market access, interest rates etc etc.
With all the stocks I have, I can dream up a whole series of dooms day scenarios that could quite possibly occur with any of them. Hopefully not at all the same time.
I really do think you need to lighten up on HNZ a bit ! They are probably less risky than a lot of other companies. And will certainly benefit in 12-18 months or so when interest rates start to rise.
Cheers
RTM