I'm tempted - but buying in a downtrend is an automatic "NO" for me. Happy to miss out on buying at the bottom!
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I'm tempted - but buying in a downtrend is an automatic "NO" for me. Happy to miss out on buying at the bottom!
People often think that about Catch-22 as, being anti-war, it's a sentiment not often associated with WWII. It's also regularly confused as the inspiration for M*A*S*H as they were both released in movie form about the same time, but in fact M*A*S*H was based on a different book.
If I was the CEO, then would of paid 10c div as usual, then on ex div date announced a special div of 10c to be paid out in December in time for Christmas. And paid out the rest over the next 6 or 12 months at different times plus the normal div. and the sp would probably still be over $2. Simple aye, and I'm just the shoe shine boy. And on that note, bought more at $1.82:eek2:.
On to it mac; newbies take note ; don't buy in a down trend.; really simple ,except greed and egos and lil devils on ones shoulder saying "go on give us a thrill" buybuybuy"; also after a % drop it has to go up more to get back to where it was % wise. Wait for the bend at the end of the trend and don't try and pick bottoms, see T/a threads
That 10 year AIR chart which shows the pricing behaviour of true cyclicals is giving me nightmares - past the haunting stage.
i know its a totally unsophisticated hand drawn chart that has no credentials and is load of bonkum (and the other kind things mentioned the other day) but what it shows is slowly and painfully happening.
First version was posted last April (post #5798) when the price was 280/290 on the way down from 320. Various updates since - could the price go 125/150 before we see the bottom of this cycle - qite possible because whats happening is how real cyclicals often perform.
That 10 year AIR chart which shows the pricing behaviour of true cyclicals is now giving me nightmares - past the haunting stage.
i know its a totally unsophisticated hand drawn chart that has no credentials and is load of bunkum (and the other kind things mentioned the other day) but what it shows is slowly and painfully happening.
First version was posted last April (post #5798) when the price was 280/290 on the way down from 320. One comment back then was it couldn't possibly fall to 250. Various updates since - could the price go 125/150 before we see the bottom of this cycle - quite possible because whats happening is how real cyclicals often perform.
And while we are looking into past posts:
4-Aug-16:
4-Aug-16
Looks like my crystal ball was spot on :t_up:
More interesting question is - what can we learn from the hyped up threads on ST - may this be DIL (at some stage), PEB (at some stage), or more recently AIR?
1) Nobody is always right, no matter what their reputation (and yes, this does include myself)
2) Its easy to recognise hyped up threads ... that's the threads where a handful of posters (often overexposed to the particular stock) keep repeating the same hype over and over again. In addition to that do they start to put negative attributes on posters who dare to have a different (less hyped up) view of their beloved stock. I am referring to attributes like "nay-sayers", "scaremongerers", "haters". While it is unpleasant to be called this way ... these attributes are useful "red flags" for every investor. If you see them repeatedly used in a thread it is normally a great idea to avoid the respective stock.
... and back to AIR:
3) "cyclical means cyclical" (thanks Theresa;)): If you have a cyclical stock for which all stars aligned in a particular year and where the share price did rise well above any prior peak ... than it is quite likely that it will go down from here. If it is already in a confirmed downtrend (nice head and shoulders) and the fundamentals point to increasing competition and dwindling margins, than it is unreasonable to assume that paying out a huge dividend (which in parts was just a capital return based on a loss making deal and is in anyone's books just a big cash outflow anyway) is going to pop up the share price after going X-dividend.
4) Ah - yes ... it is a quite common folly to buy stocks based on dividend promises. While we don't know yet, whether AIR will be in a position to keep its promise (and for how long) of a minimum dividend of 20 cents p.a., the markets seem to be doubtful, and I think they have a point. Nobody (and I mean NOBODY) has a clue how the aviation market looks like in 6 or 12 months from now. How much worth is a promise which can only be kept if the market treats AIR nicely? Which means ... yes, if they keep their promise, than AIR will provide a great investment income. The question is just ... how likely is it that they will be able to keep their promise?
Just to clarify ... I think that AIR is one of the better airlines (though in my view not the best, whatever this means). I expect them to stay around (and I can't say the same about all their competitors), unless they keep repeating their past mistakes ... but two times burnt should be enough - shouldn't it?
I could well imagine to buy at some stage back in again, but not yet. The thing with market cycles is ... you normally need to see blood on the floor before things start to improve again. I expect margins in the aviation industry to keep dropping for some time - and this only will stop if some carriers can't stand the pressure anymore. Only when carriers start to drop out of the market do the survivors have a chance to increase margins and profitability again ...
DYOR.
Maybe a Thread for "Trading Stock's ", only would be good and transparent and informing for all?. But then with the NZX such a small market with frequent liquidity probs with many stocks that may defeat the purpose of trading. Not of course in the larger frequently traded stocks like AIR but it would provide clarity re where folks are coming from and leave no questions of possible agendas or motives. If there is any int someone could start a trading thread for NZ stocks and one for ASX stocks.
Over 300 threads on AIR arguably the most discussed stock on here so are many of the posts from traders, short term investors? Then another question arises.Is long term investing now redundant on all but a few stocks?
Not sure I understand what you are asking for? Traders and investors talk about the same thing, they just have different time horizons. However - no matter whether you are a trader or an investor ... it is always beneficial to buy cheap and to sell dear.
Or do you mean that hype should be limited to traders-only threads with investor-only threads being used to have the serious conversations? I think this would miss the point of creating the hype in the first place. Sure - there might be some inexperienced traders who are just "whistling in the dark", but I think most of the more experienced traders just want to influence their audience to push the SP up ... for obvious reasons. What would be the point if only other traders would read this stuff?
Taking the 3 'local' airline stocks and comparing their current share price to consensus analyst value from 4-traders and we have:
AIR: $2.20; $1.82; 17.3% discount.
QAN: $4.07; $3.23; 20.6% discount*
VAH: $0.29; $0.24; 17.3% discount
*I have taken the liberty of chucking out a $8 valuation for QAN - otherwise $4.35.
So maybe this is where the AIR share price should be..
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger